Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[ROCK]

Yep thats a really strong upper high, probably not helping with regards to dry air coming round the southern flank of the high either...

that and as we have seen it will be hauling butt across the pond at a rapid pace....not conducive for developement.

[Blown Away]

One thing for sure is with the ridge to the north this wave is going west for a while. IMO, the latest GFS is to slow getting this area to the CONUS.

[HurricaneWarning92]

hehe convection is trying to build around the circulation... there is a small blob just north of it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

[knotimpaired]

MaJor storm over vieques

[cycloneye]

MaJor storm over vieques

Well,is very early to know that.The only thing to do for now is to watch the progress of this wave/pouch in the next few days to first if it develops and second,where it may track.

[Scorpion]

Out to 138 hours.. still got it

[Scorpion]

More consistency

[HurricaneWarning92]

hmm looks like on that run it would spend some time over land which would weaken it considerably, unless it goes north of the islands pretty quickly and then goes for Florida... i cant really tell since it isnt a loop. Just an observation though.

[Hurricaneman]

damn, the gfs hasn't flip floped all over the place, it keeps this within a 150 mile area from Ft Walton Beach to Tampa and pretty strong. This is certainly something that bears watching

[Brent]

Hurricane in my backyard well inland! Oh GFS...

[South Texas Storms]

Brent you aren't believing the GFS yet? It has been pretty consistent...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Hasnt it showed landfall in FL in every run?

[Brent]

Brent you aren't believing the GFS yet? It has been pretty consistent...

I believe the basic idea of a major U.S. threat. The specifics? Not so much, though it is alarming consistency I will say.

[South Texas Storms]

Brent you aren't believing the GFS yet? It has been pretty consistent...

I believe the basic idea of a major U.S. threat. The specifics? Not so much, though it is alarming consistency I will say.

Yeah. I wonder if this has any chance of making landfall in TX or Louisiana? None of the models have shown that yet. Is it a possibility?

[Brent]

Brent you aren't believing the GFS yet? It has been pretty consistent...

I believe the basic idea of a major U.S. threat. The specifics? Not so much, though it is alarming consistency I will say.

Yeah. I wonder if this has any chance of making landfall in TX or Louisiana? None of the models have shown that yet. Is it a possibility?

Really don't think so with your heat ridge.

Basically, there's a weakness over the Southeast, that's why it turns north consistently on the runs.

[PTrackerLA]

Will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro shows this system again, was somewhat expecting to see the GFS drop it by now but it remains consistent. Doesn't look like development until almost the islands in this scenario so we're many days away from knowing any specifics. I'll go out on a limb and say the islands, followed by the SE US and GOM should all keep an eye on this system . Was it Earl from last year that the GFS showed repeatedly striking New Orleans in the long range for days when it ultimately recurved recurved off the east coast? Can't remember precisely but my point is we've been through this many times before. Hard to remind yourself to "take with a grain of salt" this time of year but we must for the coming days .

[South Texas Storms]

Will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro shows this system again, was somewhat expecting to see the GFS drop it by now but it remains consistent. Doesn't look like development until almost the islands in this scenario so we're many days away from knowing any specifics. I'll go out on a limb and say the islands, followed by the SE US and GOM should all keep an eye on this system . Was it Earl from last year that the GFS showed repeatedly striking New Orleans in the long range for days when it ultimately recurved recurved off the east coast? Can't remember precisely but my point is we've been through this many times before. Hard to remind yourself to "take with a grain of salt" this time of year but we must for the coming days .

Yeah and wasn't Ike forecast to recurve as well?

[Fego]

Descending ASCAT at 0500 UTC.

[Brent]

0z CMC, big hurricane just offshore Central FL

[dwsqos2]

I've counted at least five spurious gfs TCs in the less than 96 hour range over the past two months. I said it before, but when SAB hits T4.0/4.0 I'll pay attention, until then, blah.

I actually think that the CMC has had fewer short-range false alarms over the same two months hilariously enough. Maybe the improvement has actually helped it.