2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

If the GFS is showing phantom storms this early, could that be an indicator that the base conditions are more favorable than recent years?

It could be, but it also could be GFS being GFS.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are really struggling right now. Even the ECMWF.

[weathaguyry]

Hmmm, probably just normal GFS phantom garbage, but it has been persistent with this for a few runs now, it will be interesting to see if the Euro has it once it comes into range.

[AutoPenalti]

Hmmm, probably just normal GFS phantom garbage, but it has been persistent with this for a few runs now, it will be interesting to see if the Euro has it once it comes into range.

It keeps pushing it back.

[Hurricaneman]

Hmmm, probably just normal GFS phantom garbage, but it has been persistent with this for a few runs now, it will be interesting to see if the Euro has it once it comes into range.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_48.png

It keeps pushing it back.

Based on the GFS pushback it's definitely a phantom storm

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm, probably just normal GFS phantom garbage, but it has been persistent with this for a few runs now, it will be interesting to see if the Euro has it once it comes into range.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_48.png

It keeps pushing it back.

Based on the GFS pushback it's definitely a phantom storm

The takeaway from it is the GFS is advertising that conditions will become more favorable for tropical development sooner rather than later.

[gatorcane]

The area to watch will be the Western Caribbean / Yucatán in the long-range as we head into mid June. Shear looks like it could begin to relax there and models are starting to spin up things down there (including the ECMWF) not to mention that is the climatologically favored area. The GFS shear anomaly graphic day 10 below:

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro seem to be keying in on another 50/50 system that will develop either in the western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific.

[NDG]

Worst performance by the Euro going now during the past year, almost as bad as the GFS. So I guess certain patterns give models a real hard time to forecast.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 5262349313

[cycloneye]

Note from Levi on a delay to the 12z run of GFS.

12:10pm EDT June 5: The NOAA data feed is experiencing problems, currently delaying 12Z GFS output. Other American models may be affected as well.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like the ECMWF is scheduled to be upgraded sometime next month.

Weatherbell has a link on their paid site providing data from the Euro Parallel run.

[tropicwatch]

Note from Levi on a delay to the 12z run of GFS.

12:10pm EDT June 5: The NOAA data feed is experiencing problems, currently delaying 12Z GFS output. Other American models may be affected as well.

NOAA has had several issues over the past week or so. There RSS feeds were not updating (fixed), the ssd satellite feeds were not updating this weekend (fixed today).

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z Euro is not loading now either.

EDIT: Never mind it's starting to load now.

[stormhunter7]

GEM has shown a GOM TS storm for the last 3 runs now around the 15th of June......

[tropicwatch]

Both the GFS and Euro show the low coming off of Texas moving eastward across the north gulf and possibly deepening off the east coast during the week.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/872144646176202754



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/872133121805869058

[wxman57]

Western Caribbean/eastern Gulf is a prime early-season development region. GFS is picking up on potential development there in 11-12 days. Conditions in that region are looking favorable for development, but that doesn't mean the GFS is correct. Let's see if the EC and Canadian come on board in 3-4 days once the potential development is within 10 days. For now, I'd say development chances there around the 16th-18th may be 10-15%.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has develoment on the EPAC side.

[Alyono]

00z Euro has develoment on the EPAC side.

any Caribbean or Gulf development is likely to begin just after the 240 hour time period. Given how the monsoon trough sets up, no matter which side a well defined LLC forms, it likely would move toward the Gulf

[TheStormExpert]

Can't trust any of these global models beyond a few days with how well they've been doing over the past month or so. It's a wait and see situation at this point.