Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[toad strangler]

never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out

I’d side with the consensus of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET over the navy and CMC just about at all timeframes if they’re weaker. At least those 3 don’t have a tendency to overstrengthen when nearby shear is very high.

Haven't seen the UKIE in a day or two posted here.

[Aric Dunn]

This is where the surface low has formed the circulation is still weak and broad as soon as convection build more it wont take long. with the upper high over it now.though we could end up with competing vorts per the models which would slow development way down right near San Andres Island.

[LarryWx]

never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out

I’d side with the consensus of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET over the navy and CMC just about at all timeframes if they’re weaker. At least those 3 don’t have a tendency to overstrengthen when nearby shear is very high.

Haven't seen the UKIE in a day or two posted here.

That’s due to it not having genesis going out 144 hours.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Morning everyone,

I know the potential storm is suppose to form down in the SW Carb. I have not seen any post regarding the dry air currently in the straits north of Cuba and most of the Gulf. If it persist would it not affect any chance of being a more organized storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Now that there is a fairly decent low pressure area the models should respond a little better today.

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm, CMC and FV3 in agreement. How odd. NOLA hit FV3 at 983mb on FV3 on 10/14
CMC hit at 988 on 10/10 a full three days earlier but the same place.
NavGem is on hallucinogens so I always ignore it.
06z GFS is strange it has a weak central gulf system into panhandle of FL and then a weak east coast rider.
Euro outlier with a 997 off central east coast of FL.
In other words the typical blindfold and dartboard situation.

[stormlover2013]

cmc is never in agreement it will show california today lol

[Hurricaneman]

The reason the GFS doesn’t develop is because it goes into Central America

[Aric Dunn]

FInally the GFS seems to have fixed the feedback issues. looking much more reasonable. except for about 48 hours the system is under fantastic upper environment but no strengthening.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric,
Was wondering what your thoughts were on my question regarding the dry air I posted a bit ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,
Was wondering what your thoughts were on my question regarding the dry air I posted a bit ago.

should not be an issue. though it will depend on the placement of the upper low.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS into the Gulf with a strung out mess but the track similar (although further west) to NAVGEM and all thanks to that 500mb set up that all modeling is showing in the mid to long range.

[Aric Dunn]

much more realistic GFS run.. good sign now that the models have a surface feature to latch onto.

only issue again is there is a good upper environment over the system while in the gulf. cant find a reason its not deepening.

[SFLcane]

With that ridge the models are showing i would not be surprised if this ends up as far west abs Texas or boc.

Not sure what the Euro is thinking

[toad strangler]

With that ridge the models are showing i would not be surprised if this ends up as far west abs Texas or boc.

Not sure what the Euro is thinking

I mean not for nothin but the 12z CMC is signaling W as well.

[SFLcane]

No way this even gets close to Florida with the ridge progged to park itself across the southeast. Summertime for the foreseeable future

[Aric Dunn]

With that ridge the models are showing i would not be surprised if this ends up as far west abs Texas or boc.

Not sure what the Euro is thinking

I mean not for nothin but the 12z CMC is signaling W as well.

the only reason the models have had east solutions is because of the high shear which was forcing the convection and thus the system to move to the north then once north of the islands the shear relaxes and it turns west again. the ridge is strong.


now the models are showing less shear so that wont happen. and we see the wnw to nw motion.

[SFLcane]

12z CMC is east of its 00z run into panhandle. Hopefully it into runs into Central America or ends up in the boc without much development

[CourierPR]

Met. Joe Bastardi expects the system to move into The Bahamas in a few days according to his daily summary on weatherbell.com.