Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[AutoPenalti]

GFS is running but ridge is a tad stronger. Also, notably faster this run compared to the last

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is running but ridge is a tad stronger. Also, notably faster this run compared to the last

And farther sw .. probably due to the fact the surface circ is below 10 north..

[TheStormExpert]

Also a good deal weaker.

[Aric Dunn]

And the trough is weaker and positively tilted.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z to 12z Trend

[SouthFLTropics]

06z to 12z Trend

[TheStormExpert]

East Coast trough looks to be lifting out faster this run.

[Aric Dunn]

East Coast trough looks to be lifting out faster this run.

yeah 174 hours its lifting out. But will it be fast enough..

[Aric Dunn]

Yep. Trough shifted the ridge to east enough to let it get out.. but its close. A whole lot can happen.

[GCANE]

High pressure over the N GOM is popping back up too.

[AutoPenalti]

This run reminds of Irma pre-intensification.

[AutoPenalti]

Trend is tad-bit East. The timing of the trough is really going to be key. This is going to be a long ride for some here.

[USTropics]

Things are slowly improving, the 850mb vort has propagated from the eastern flank of the wave axis towards the western flank over the past 12-15 hours (west of 10N), which is closer to the mid/upper vort forcing. Still a very large and elongated circulation, but improving.

850mb vort loop:


mid/upper level charts:

[sunnyday]

It’s going to be a long ride for some in what area?

[storminabox]

00Z Euro Ensembles seems to have 2 clusters. 1 that takes future 96-L out and away into the open Atlantic & a second cluster that tracks it into the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/j8TkQwK.png

By "open Atlantic" you mean Bermuda. Most of those show a near-direct hit. This is the classic setup for a Bermuda storm.

I was just there. It is an amazing place and I hope it doesn’t hit Bermuda. The water temps were incredibly warm there in the mid 80s, so if it does get near Bermuda, there will be plenty of fuel to support a very strong system.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s going to be a long ride for some in what area?

Really anywhere in the CONUS. Just have to keep watching. Timing is everything here.

[Kazmit]

00Z Euro Ensembles seems to have 2 clusters. 1 that takes future 96-L out and away into the open Atlantic & a second cluster that tracks it into the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/j8TkQwK.png

By "open Atlantic" you mean Bermuda. Most of those show a near-direct hit. This is the classic setup for a Bermuda storm.

I was just there. It is an amazing place and I hope it doesn’t hit Bermuda. The water temps were incredibly warm there in the mid 80s, so if it does get near Bermuda, there will be plenty of fuel to support a very strong system.

I live here. Bermuda hurricanes are quite rare at this time of year- most that tend to affect us form in September or October. Usually ridging protects us during the summer but you're right- the water is very warm. I will certainly be watching this one.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan has a floater up.

TropicalTidbits floater

[Siker]

12z Legacy GFS brings a cane through the Bahamas and close to the Carolinas.

[USTropics]

This is what you would call a low-skill forecast, look how many variations the GFS has shown of not only the placement/orientation of the EC trough, but also the trough over the North Atlantic. Trough over NA can hinder (erode western periphery) or amplify the subtropical ridge (allow for the ridge to extend westward and speed up/displace future 96L more southwest). Setup still favors a recurve, but it's certainly not a guarantee.