Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WeatherEmperor]

The private firm WeatherTiger Junes forecast goes up to 19/9/5 from the April's 16/8/4.

https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2020/

Two point key take away for me from this write up by weathertiger....


1. One piece of good news: the Kirkland Signature three-pack of tropical storms that have affected the U.S. coast so far this year (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have no enduring predictive value for the year ahead. Hurricane season 2020 is running hot so far (~95th percentile), but prior TC activity has no correlation with the rest of the season until early August. Of the eleven fastest starts since 1950, five seasons ended above normal, two near normal, and four below normal. This early season activity is a shot over the bow, but nothing more.

2. Given the similarities to 1964 in both the Atlantic and the tropical and mid-latitude Pacific, I am concerned this year will not only be very active, but also have a steering current regime during the peak of the season that is risky for the continental U.S., with stronger than average Western Atlantic Ridging. That is, as always, a low confidence forecast at this range, and we’ll have a better idea how those critical steering currents may shape up later this summer.

1964 was very bad for Florida with 3 hurricane landfalls in Cleo, Dora and Isbell. Hopefully that doesn't happen this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Some pretty serious words coming from Dr. Ryan Truchelut

[crownweather]

I increased our forecast numbers too for this season with our update to our Crown Weather subscribers.

Going with 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. I'm really concerned about the Caribbean for at least a couple of hurricane hits this season. Unlike the last few seasons, I think that the Caribbean will be quite active this season.

[cycloneye]

The Caribbean aspect worries me a lot this year as CSU says 59% of at least a major in the area and Rob of crownweather says he is concerned.

[SFLcane]

We’re is CFAN seasonal forecasts?

Edit: Forecast are no longer free to the public only subscription based.

[TheStormExpert]

I’ll just put this here!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1271485207497998336

[toad strangler]

Why would individual models be included in the same comparison as human forecasts who use many different models AND sometimes more importantly .... climatology to arrive at their forecasts. It makes no sense.

[Shell Mound]

Who’s willing to bet that, regardless of overall numbers, we’ll match or exceed the record seasonal ACE value of 259 set back in 1933? Two or three Irma-type systems may well be sufficient. Long-tracking CV majors quickly add up to a lot of storm-generated ACE over time, especially if the cyclone(s) maintains and/or attains MH status on several days. You don’t need 2005-type numbers in terms of overall NS to achieve record-breaking ACE. You just need a high proportion of long-tracking major hurricanes to do the trick, so to speak.

[TheStormExpert]

Who’s willing to bet that, regardless of overall numbers, we’ll match or exceed the record seasonal ACE value of 259 set back in 1933? Two or three Irma-type systems may well be sufficient. Long-tracking CV majors quickly add up to a lot of storm-generated ACE over time, especially if the cyclone(s) maintains and/or attains MH status on several days. You don’t need 2005-type numbers in terms of overall NS to achieve record-breaking ACE. You just need a high proportion of long-tracking major hurricanes to do the trick, so to speak.

I doubt we’ll see a 1933 or 2005 repeat. But never say never!

[Shell Mound]

Who’s willing to bet that, regardless of overall numbers, we’ll match or exceed the record seasonal ACE value of 259 set back in 1933? Two or three Irma-type systems may well be sufficient. Long-tracking CV majors quickly add up to a lot of storm-generated ACE over time, especially if the cyclone(s) maintains and/or attains MH status on several days. You don’t need 2005-type numbers in terms of overall NS to achieve record-breaking ACE. You just need a high proportion of long-tracking major hurricanes to do the trick, so to speak.

I doubt we’ll see a 1933 or 2005 repeat. But never say never!

These forecasts usually bust on the extremes, whether low or high. Seasons that are exceptionally active or inactive usually greatly exceed or fall short of forecasts.

Since all indicators are conducive, I’m betting that 2020 will likely greatly exceed even the most bullish of credible forecasts. But as you stated, we’ll see.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275089760382410752

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275089760382410752

Klotzbach alluded to the likelihood of increasing his projections come August 1st based on information gleaned since his initial forecast on June 1.

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275089760382410752

Klotzbach alluded to the likelihood of increasing his projections come August 1st based on information gleaned since his initial forecast on June 1.

Increase his projections...from 19/9/4?

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275089760382410752

Klotzbach alluded to the likelihood of increasing his projections come August 1st based on information gleaned since his initial forecast on June 1.

Increase his projections...from 19/9/4?

Go to the 31:00 mark and listen. It was pretty casual but he mentioned the possibility of increasing his totals a little more come his July and August updates based on what he has seen since June 1.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275089760382410752

Klotzbach alluded to the likelihood of increasing his projections come August 1st based on information gleaned since his initial forecast on June 1.

Right???? Now that's a bit disconcerting. This is taking my already heightened concern about this season to another level.


Increase his projections...from 19/9/4?

[FireRat]

I suspect he means to increase the 19 in the 19/9/4... maybe goes with 21/9/4.

[CyclonicFury]

CSU and TSR release their updated numbers tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight increase in named storms, but hurricanes and major hurricanes will likely stay the same IMO (at least for CSU).

I think we might see Dr. Klotzbach raise his predicted number of tropical storms from 19 to 20, which, if it verifies, would make 2020 the second-most active season on record in terms of named storms.

[SFLcane]

Updated CSU numbers 20/9/4

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1280516932849074179

[Shell Mound]

Updated CSU numbers 20/9/4

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1280516932849074179

Note that CSU’s “hind-cast” model for projected ACE (page nineteen) has consistently underestimated seasonal ACE since 2015, with fairly significant low biases yearly since 2017. Based on this alone, CSU’s projection for total MH is likely a few storms too low. Six or seven majors, if not eight, seem more likely than four at this time. The only potential negatives in 2020 are occasional SAL penetrations due to amplified African easterly waves, the rising branch of -VP being concentrated over Africa and the western IO instead of the MC, and the possibility for stronger-than-average easterlies and/or TUTT over/near the Caribbean due to the SST pattern in the subtropical Atlantic, despite otherwise very conducive conditions. As p. 32 of CSU’s report notes, deep-layer vertical wind shear over the Caribbean during the month of July correlates strongly with seasonal activity, so we need to watch and see whether Caribbean VWS ends up lower than average over the next two to three weeks.

[Steve]

Who’s willing to bet that, regardless of overall numbers, we’ll match or exceed the record seasonal ACE value of 259 set back in 1933? Two or three Irma-type systems may well be sufficient. Long-tracking CV majors quickly add up to a lot of storm-generated ACE over time, especially if the cyclone(s) maintains and/or attains MH status on several days. You don’t need 2005-type numbers in terms of overall NS to achieve record-breaking ACE. You just need a high proportion of long-tracking major hurricanes to do the trick, so to speak.

How much are you willing to go on it? I'll probably take the bet as a site donation or something. 259 ain't likely.