Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

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AutoPenalti
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#241 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:Evening view of tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/ivOm7Ex.gif

Looks very anemic, but not moving much either.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#242 Postby boca » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:12 pm

Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#243 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:18 pm

boca wrote:Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.


Illusion. The wave axis stretches form the N most part of that convection all the way and WELL S into SA. Northern part of the axis is more active by as Aric said it's looking weak right now. More so than all day.
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#244 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:18 pm

boca wrote:Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.

Dying convection makes it seem that way.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#245 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:32 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
boca wrote:Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.

Dying convection makes it seem that way.

Yep, mostly shear driven convection heading north on an outflow boundary. Seeing some mid level rotation at about 15N 67W, although it looks like there’s a little bit of turning at 10N 67W as well, right on the coast. Wonder which part will win.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#246 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:34 am

0z model roundup thus far:
GFS stalls and does a little dance around the Yucatan, before shooting off west. Peaks as a mid grade TS.
Canadian has a short-lived TD from this wave, mostly favoring the wave behind it which becomes a big TS in the Gulf moving north.
ICON has a very slow moving system in the West Caribbean, not getting particularly intense.
UKMET shows no development within 144h.

Most models have some kind of interaction between this wave and the one behind it, which may also develop.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#247 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:46 am

0Z UKMET 144: strung out/weak:

Image
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#248 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:39 am

Looks like the discussion poofed alongside the shear-driven convection.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#249 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:59 am

Para still going at it... :roll:

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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#250 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:04 am



Much further west then it has been.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#251 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:25 am


It takes a full day longer to reach the longitude of the Yucatán Peninsula in the GFS-Para run, which is why it bombs out. The GFS has landfall in 96-102 hours and is just able to squeeze out a strong TS. Speaking of the GFS, it still gets this stuck on the Yucatán Peninsula, and does the same for the disturbance behind it.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#252 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:58 am


Well at least it’s consistent albeit a lone wolf at this time. That solution is possible, but less than likely due to what all the other ‘reliable’ models are presenting at this time and the fact that climatologically/historically most systems in that locale with the pending synoptic pattern would be a sheared weak t.s. At best. But obviously we’ve been fooled before, especially this season. So we must watch....
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#253 Postby Loveweather12 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:00 am

Yes those other reliable models have had problems this season too! I’m not going to discount the Gfs para. Just best to watch & not discount it cause it’s the para. The NHC knows the deal & we should trust them


otowntiger wrote:

Well at least it’s consistent albeit a lone wolf at this time. That solution is possible, but less than likely due to what all the other ‘reliable’ models are presenting at this time and the fact that climatologically/historically most systems in that locale with the pending synoptic pattern would be a sheared weak t.s. At best. But obviously we’ve been fooled before, especially this season. So we must watch....
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#254 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:01 am

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1310909229386039298


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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#255 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:01 am

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1310901454828384257


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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#256 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:07 am

GEFS still active this morning.

That’s under 5 days now

Image


Image
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#257 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:24 am

Development as early as Friday per GEFS.

Image

Image
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#258 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:27 am

SFLcane wrote:GEFS still active this morning.

That’s under 5 days now

https://i.imgur.com/x0kZliH.png


https://i.imgur.com/9qMPBz1.png


...and further West.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#259 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:33 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:GEFS still active this morning.

That’s under 5 days now

https://i.imgur.com/x0kZliH.png


https://i.imgur.com/9qMPBz1.png


...and further West.


Lots of variables on were an actual vortex forms if any.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#260 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:37 am

06z Para..

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