Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[SoupBone]

So the GEFS has a lot of members sending this into Belize then Mexico, with a few into Southern Texas, am I reading that correctly? *Image Stolen from Aspen*

[Stormybajan]

Looking at the icon, gfs etc I was hopeful a day ago this cold surge disturbance would be able to give us in Barbados some relief from this 2 month long heat. Basically no strong tropical waves have passed since early July and its been HOT. However looking at the system this morning the convection is very anemic and clearly isnt anything close to what the icon,GFS and HWRF were showing in the short term...theres still time before but it reaches here but DAMN. The tropics havent behaved like August at all. I will say this though it seems the disturbance has a very nice spin to it already so if it can hold on to that rotation when it reaches the western caribbean in 3 days or so with that plentiful and untouched OHC...maybe we may FINALLY have something to track.

[jasons2k]

I’ve always been more concerned about this system developing in the long term rather than the short term. It’s not unusual for these waves to be a sleeper until it gets to the Western Caribbean.

[Iceresistance]

The GoM potential is related to this system.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1562290051547013120

[WiscoWx02]

Still some model support, maybe it’s possible at this point but the background state of the Atlantic is unfavorable in general so it’s chances are still not that high in my opinion. Shear and sea surface temps are good but the stability…I foresee that being an issue.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be finally firing convection around the swirl, let’s see if it persists

[cycloneye]

This is very interesting. Recon planned for Friday.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.0N 64.5W FOR 26/1800Z.

[BobHarlem]

Some convection starting to pop off there, but in an IR eyeball comparison to the ULL north of the DR and the other area in the W Caribbean it's hard to even notice it right now. This system will be a slow developer until it probably gets near Jamaica.

[Cpv17]

Some convection starting to pop off there, but in an IR eyeball comparison to the ULL north of the DR and the other area in the W Caribbean it's hard to even notice it right now. This system will be a slow developer until it probably gets near Jamaica.
https://i.imgur.com/ulM9oqv.gif

I completely agree with that which also means it has a better chance at getting into the Gulf. Not sure how conditions will be if it does get there though.

[wxman57]

I’ve always been more concerned about this system developing in the long term rather than the short term. It’s not unusual for these waves to be a sleeper until it gets to the Western Caribbean.

That is why weak tropical waves near or in the eastern Caribbean can become a problem later on. Typically, low-level flow increases in that region, resulting in low-level divergence. Squalls decrease or are non-existent. However, once the wave's forward speed slows down in the western Caribbean, low-level convergence can lead to rapid development of squalls. That's not the big problem with this wave, though. It's not moving very quickly, but it's being choked by so much dry air. It could get better organized around next Wed-Thu when it reaches the western Caribbean. At that time, low-level convergence will increase and the dry air won't be as much of a problem. I think I've had Labor Day weekend off maybe once in the last 40 years.

[SoupBone]

I’ve always been more concerned about this system developing in the long term rather than the short term. It’s not unusual for these waves to be a sleeper until it gets to the Western Caribbean.

That is why weak tropical waves near or in the eastern Caribbean can become a problem later on. Typically, low-level flow increases in that region, resulting in low-level divergence. Squalls decrease or are non-existent. However, once the wave's forward speed slows down in the western Caribbean, low-level convergence can lead to rapid development of squalls. That's not the big problem with this wave, though. It's not moving very quickly, but it's being choked by so much dry air. It could get better organized around next Wed-Thu when it reaches the western Caribbean. At that time, low-level convergence will increase and the dry air won't be as much of a problem. I think I've had Labor Day weekend off maybe once in the last 40 years.

If this isn't telling, I don't know what is. Great...

I'm really pulling for a Central American bury, but that just doesn't seem likely with the operational models at least.

[Cpv17]

I’ve always been more concerned about this system developing in the long term rather than the short term. It’s not unusual for these waves to be a sleeper until it gets to the Western Caribbean.

That is why weak tropical waves near or in the eastern Caribbean can become a problem later on. Typically, low-level flow increases in that region, resulting in low-level divergence. Squalls decrease or are non-existent. However, once the wave's forward speed slows down in the western Caribbean, low-level convergence can lead to rapid development of squalls. That's not the big problem with this wave, though. It's not moving very quickly, but it's being choked by so much dry air. It could get better organized around next Wed-Thu when it reaches the western Caribbean. At that time, low-level convergence will increase and the dry air won't be as much of a problem. I think I've had Labor Day weekend off maybe once in the last 40 years.

If this isn't telling, I don't know what is. Great...

I'm really pulling for a Central American bury, but that just doesn't seem likely with the operational models at least.

It has a pretty good chance at staying weak and just crashing into Belize and re-emerging in the Bay of Campeche going towards Tampico as a ts or weak cane if you ask me as of right now.

But the operational Euro has this more on the northern tip of the Yucatán so that gives me pause. But a lot of ensembles do have it further south..

[SoupBone]

That is why weak tropical waves near or in the eastern Caribbean can become a problem later on. Typically, low-level flow increases in that region, resulting in low-level divergence. Squalls decrease or are non-existent. However, once the wave's forward speed slows down in the western Caribbean, low-level convergence can lead to rapid development of squalls. That's not the big problem with this wave, though. It's not moving very quickly, but it's being choked by so much dry air. It could get better organized around next Wed-Thu when it reaches the western Caribbean. At that time, low-level convergence will increase and the dry air won't be as much of a problem. I think I've had Labor Day weekend off maybe once in the last 40 years.

If this isn't telling, I don't know what is. Great...

I'm really pulling for a Central American bury, but that just doesn't seem likely with the operational models at least.

It has a pretty good chance at staying weak and just crashing into Belize and re-emerging in the Bay of Campeche going towards Tampico as a ts or weak cane if you ask me as of right now.

But the operational Euro has this more on the northern tip of the Yucatán so that gives me pause. But a lot of ensembles do have it further south..

12Z GFS running now, let's see what it shows.

[BobHarlem]

12Z icon doesn't develop it, but it gets all the way to the Yucatan Peninsula.

[SoupBone]

12Z icon doesn't develop it, but it gets all the way to the Yucatan Peninsula.

That area of the Yucatan is what concerns me. It's not really crossing at an inhibiting area.

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be an MLC in the ITCZ behind this feature, looks interesting

Back to this system: it seems as though it’s coming together but stable air is the only fly in the ointment as it’s keeping convection to a minimum but there seems to be some convection going near the possible weak low

[Kingarabian]

GFS... looks like it has really backed off.

[toad strangler]

GFS... looks like it has really backed off.

No coherent vorticity at all on 12z in the near term hours. Who cares what it shows 200 plus

[Cpv17]

GFS... looks like it has really backed off.

It just finally came to its senses this run and is now in agreement with the other models as something weak going towards the western Caribbean. Plenty of time for it to strengthen once it reaches that region and in the Gulf.

[aspen]

And it’s gone. Model support withered away as soon as the NHC tagged it.