TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Trugunzn]

U can see the trough on the vapor pretty well:

[Derek Ortt]

THE FOLLOWING IMAGE, WHILE HOSTED ON THE NWHHC SITE, IS NOT IN ANY WAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWHHC. IT IS MERELY A PHOTO E-MAILED TO ME BY ANOTHER POSTER, THAT I AM DISPLAYING ON NWHHC ON A TEMPORARY BASIS. DO NOT USE THIS AS AN NWHHC FORECAST

http://www.nwhhc.com/Florence.jpg

This is Storms in NC's thoughts

[cpdaman]

yes how far south is that trough supposed to get

is there really no way that flo could instead just gets deflected northwest as it "feels" the trough instead of getting "picked up

[cpdaman]

derek is there also a high over florida that is influencing this forecast weakness

[Damar91]

And, could those Highs be stronger than forecasted. (Won't all you pro-mets be glad when she finally makes the turn North! )

[Derek Ortt]

with that trough approaching?

As I said in another thread, one has a better chance of winning the powerball and mega millions multi state lotteries in the same week than this thing does of hitting Florida

IT IS NOT COMING TO FLORIDA

[Lowpressure]

She is crossing 60, NHC graphic does not have her passing 65, she better start bending. Still makes me think of Isabel in regards to track to this point.

[storms in NC]

And not the east coast either

[gatorcane]

She is crossing 60, NHC graphic does not have her passing 65, she better start bending. Still makes me think of Isabel in regards to track to this point.

I think in the past hour she has started to make a slow bend....

[cycloneye]

08/1745 UTC 23.7N 59.5W T3.5/3.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean


At 5 PM,the winds will be bumped up if NHC follows SSD sat estimates of 3.5/3.5.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[Lowpressure]

If we should have learned anything this year so far, it is that nothing can't happen. Ernesto was a Mexico or Southern GOM system by all parameters. He ddid not even enter the GOM. Not saying anything about Flo, just be careful with the " it aint gonna happen" stuff.

[gatorcane]

If we should have learned anything this year so far, it is that nothing can't happen. Ernesto was a Mexico or Southern GOM system by all parameters. He ddid not even enter the GOM. Not saying anything about Flo, just be careful with the " it aint gonna happen" stuff.

true but ernesto was a very unique situation...in most cases the NHC does a good job with the tracks.

[Derek Ortt]

Ernesto was an anomaly

It does not change standard meteorological reasoning. Some here are placing way too much emphasis on the Ernesto debacle, which was partially due to center reformations

[Thunder44]

U can see the trough on the vapor pretty well:

All you have to do is loop that image, and see that Florence has very little chance now of hitting the US east coast, let alone Florida. The only signficant threat to North America appears to be to Newfoundland.

[curtadams]

She's visibly bending N now. Maybe a bit ahead of schedule, even.

[skysummit]

It does look like she might be a tad east of the NHC track. Maybe the turn is in its development stages

[Brent]

Strongly agree. This is the most obvious U.S. miss in quite awhile.

[Thunder44]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2006 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 23:14:30 N Lon : 59:45:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -60.4C Cloud Region Temp : -52.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

CIMSS estimates this afternoon give a 3.3 which is about 51kts.

[Derek Ortt]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06090817

GFDL shifted left, but it is too far south already

may not affect the overall track, but could mean a faster arrival in Bermuda... maybe Sunday evening

[Derek Ortt]

TAFB estimate is 45KT, and the Air Force remains at 35KT

If we see a wind speed increase at 5, probably would only be to 50KT, but it could stay at 45KT since that is the average of the Dvorak estimates