Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Cyclone1]

The danger area is down. Looks like it's over, at least in the short term. Maybe, if a shred of the LLC can hold on till the weekend, it'll flare back up in the Caribbean, but that's looking doubtful at this point.

[philnyc]

Aric, what do you think? Looks pretty pathetic.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's dead.

5% chance to regenerate.

[HUC]

Looks like the circulation is still vigourous:the convection is achieving a counterclockwise turning...

[Aric Dunn]

LOL i think the Center reformed a little to the south .. thats funny..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


wxman57 whats you take on that... its looks like it has.. not much but it did i believe..

[Aric Dunn]

if it did that was really fast.. and quite random.. it seems.. but im sure there is a good explantion why it would do such random thing as that.. i have seem so many times.. but it still amazes me.. how just does it.. out of no where

[Nimbus]

I will look at it again Friday afternoon after everyone except Aric has posted that they are sure it will dissipate

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Seems to be drying up. Too much dry air
right now.

[cycloneye]

321
WHXX01 KWBC 050028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC THU JUL 5 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070705 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070705 0000 070705 1200 070706 0000 070706 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 45.2W 11.1N 47.9W 11.7N 50.5W 12.3N 53.1W
BAMD 10.8N 45.2W 11.2N 47.3W 11.7N 49.4W 12.3N 51.4W
BAMM 10.8N 45.2W 11.3N 47.5W 11.9N 49.8W 12.6N 52.3W
LBAR 10.8N 45.2W 11.1N 48.0W 11.8N 51.3W 12.5N 54.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070707 0000 070708 0000 070709 0000 070710 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 55.6W 14.2N 61.5W 16.5N 68.3W 19.0N 75.4W
BAMD 12.8N 53.2W 13.9N 56.9W 15.0N 61.3W 16.4N 67.0W
BAMM 13.2N 54.7W 14.6N 59.7W 16.1N 65.6W 17.9N 72.7W
LBAR 13.4N 57.8W 14.8N 63.5W 16.4N 69.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 45.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 43.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 40.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


This is the 00:00z run of the tropical models.It's the second run in a row that ship goes up to Tropical Storm strengh.I wonder why,because it's supposed to not be favorable down the road.

[Normandy]

Center has NOT reformed further south, the thing is just fighting too much dry air. until it gets more moisture around it its done.

[harmclan]

Well moisture is returning to the upper level which has been a consistent during this time over the past three days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html

['CaneFreak]

Ladies and Gentlemen: I cant believe I am saying this, but it looks as though 96L is not done yet. Despite the atmosphere of optimism and the waxing and waning of opinions with oscillations in the cloud temperatures on satellite, I hereby declare that 96L is NOT DEAD...96L is currently in a state of refiring right now. Believe it or not the convection is indeed on the increase and much to the dismay of some this may indeed become a depression afterall. IT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

[benny]

Ladies and Gentlemen: I cant believe I am saying this, but it looks as though 96L is not done yet. Despite the atmosphere of optimism and the waxing and waning of opinions with oscillations in the cloud temperatures on satellite, I hereby declare that 96L is NOT DEAD...96L is currently in a state of refiring right now. Believe it or not the convection is indeed on the increase and much to the dismay of some this may indeed become a depression afterall. IT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

POOF! has maybe 36 hours before the shear finishes the poor system off. Oh well... it is the 4th of July after all.. rather early for all of this! It probably bodes well for the rest of the season....??

[Cyclone1]

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing flared back up tomorrow.

[cpdaman]

that "rainbow" floater shows a moisture increase around the system (good detail) and convection refiring

chantal can you hear me why don't you go for a spin

[drezee]

255
ABNT20 KNHC 050204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Cyclone1]

Yep, NHC says potential is still there. Who knows what we may wake up to tomorrow?

[boca]

I've been in Marco Island all day and it looks like 96L died and is trying to get revived on the floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Aric Dunn]

interesting.. to note.. the moisture is increasing from the east.. i wondering if by morning we maybe looking at a changing environment... i feel as though it not quite done yet.. .. i just got back so let me look at some more things .. i let you know..

[TheRingo]

she's about to enter warmer waters at 47w.