2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Still way out in this fantasy fest but Perhaps the strongest signal from the GEFS as of yet.

[MetroMike]

It's an AEW coming off Africa that the models are showing in the Caribbean, not a phantom. Should we start a thread about this wave?

For reference only.

Starting individual threads about "modelstorms"...

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#1 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:09 pm
...especially in the medium/extended range, is not allowed, unless at least one of the following criteria is met:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place.
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

[SFLcane]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing quite the front that swings through the SE CONUS and GOM in the 8-10 day timeframe. Such a front could yank something out of the SW Caribbean northward but these fronts also should start gradually cooling the SSTs in the Gulf and even some around Florida.

Saved GFS animation:

https://i.postimg.cc/zG6Tw8jV/gfs-T2ma-us-fh168-240.gif

Gulf sure thing.. but the Caribbean not much impact.

[Hurricaneman]

It's an AEW coming off Africa that the models are showing in the Caribbean, not a phantom. Should we start a thread about this wave?

I wouldn’t until other models come aboard

[Argcane]

It's an AEW coming off Africa that the models are showing in the Caribbean, not a phantom. Should we start a thread about this wave?

I wouldn’t until other models come aboard

Is this wave related to this thread?
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121392

[CyclonicFury]

Aside from the GFS usual Caribbean shenanigans, there isn't much of a model signal for Atlantic activity over the next 10 days or so. It's very possible we won't see Gamma until October.

I wouldn't be surprised if the MDR produces one more named storm in early October. There is already a signal for a wave to potentially develop over the MDR on both the GFS and EPS. This late in the season, shear is typically strong in the MDR, limiting long-tracked storms and anything that develops usually recurves quickly.

The GFS may just be a bit too soon with predicting Caribbean development, so I would watch over the next week or two to see if the ECMWF/EPS come on board. I would be shocked if we didn't get at least one TC in the NW Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in October, potentially becoming a hurricane.

[LarryWx]

Still way out in this fantasy fest but Perhaps the strongest signal from the GEFS as of yet.

https://i.imgur.com/SSN2bmK.gif

I'm still not seeing any clearcut sign of significant time slippage as of yet. I think the jury is still out. It may have slipped a day or two at most. This is not yet screaming "fake storm" to me though that is always possible. Regardless, climo says the Caribbean will bear watching in early to mid Oct., regardless. I don't need the models to tell me that.

[DestinHurricane]

It's an AEW coming off Africa that the models are showing in the Caribbean, not a phantom. Should we start a thread about this wave?

For reference only.

Starting individual threads about "modelstorms"...

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#1 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:09 pm
...especially in the medium/extended range, is not allowed, unless at least one of the following criteria is met:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place.
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

There is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic so that would meet the admin's criteria for making a thread.

[SFLcane]

It's an AEW coming off Africa that the models are showing in the Caribbean, not a phantom. Should we start a thread about this wave?

For reference only.

Starting individual threads about "modelstorms"...

Report this post

#1 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:09 pm
...especially in the medium/extended range, is not allowed, unless at least one of the following criteria is met:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place.
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

There is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic so that would meet the admin's criteria for making a thread.

I think this is the wave the gfs is developing.

[SFLcane]

"IF ” you had a TC in this location in October it would more then likely gets turned NE into the Florida peninsula.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS is slightly more active with about 7 mainly weak TCs out of 51 members:



So, this is nothing to write home about (only 7 mainly weak TCs out of 51 members) and nothing compare to the 12Z GEFS/Para GEFS, which are both quite active once again. But it is a little something, however, and the EPS has been poor on sniffing out the longer range.

[aspen]

Aside from the GFS usual Caribbean shenanigans, there isn't much of a model signal for Atlantic activity over the next 10 days or so. It's very possible we won't see Gamma until October.

I wouldn't be surprised if the MDR produces one more named storm in early October. There is already a signal for a wave to potentially develop over the MDR on both the GFS and EPS. This late in the season, shear is typically strong in the MDR, limiting long-tracked storms and anything that develops usually recurves quickly.

The GFS may just be a bit too soon with predicting Caribbean development, so I would watch over the next week or two to see if the ECMWF/EPS come on board. I would be shocked if we didn't get at least one TC in the NW Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in October, potentially becoming a hurricane.

I would be very surprised if we didn’t see a Caribbean major this October. As I posted in the indicators thread, the vast majority of active seasons (and some average seasons) have had at least one October major hurricane, and this is the first season since 2016 where the Caribbean is favorable for significant development.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS, which for some reason is still not out on Tidbits, is similarly very active to the 6Z run:

[SFLcane]

[HeeBGBz]

Is the weather crossing the tip of Florida something that needs to be watched?

I don’t believe it will. It has a very limited time to spin up anything and would have to do so now or the next couple days. The fact that no models really have support for something developing in the short term can assure me nothing will come out except breezy conditions and rain.

Thanks for your response. The gulf has been so busy lately. Got to keep track of the players.

[SFLcane]

Larry, is this the wave the GFS-Para has developing right of Africa? Looks like it

[SFLcane]

For reference only.

Starting individual threads about "modelstorms"...

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#1 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:09 pm
...especially in the medium/extended range, is not allowed, unless at least one of the following criteria is met:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place.
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

There is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic so that would meet the admin's criteria for making a thread.

I think this is the wave the gfs is developing.

https://i.postimg.cc/3xksB9ZD/1-E0-C77-A1-EF4-A-4-EE3-9-C8-A-AF14-C17-D9-BA1.png

If this is the wave it deserves its own thread.

[AutoPenalti]

There is an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic so that would meet the admin's criteria for making a thread.

I think this is the wave the gfs is developing.

https://i.postimg.cc/3xksB9ZD/1-E0-C77-A1-EF4-A-4-EE3-9-C8-A-AF14-C17-D9-BA1.png

If this is the wave it deserves its own thread.

I would probably give it one more day.

[LarryWx]

Larry, is this the wave the GFS-Para has developing right of Africa? Looks like it

I can't tell what CV wave, if any, the GEFS or the Para GEFS is developing though it could always be a combo of seeds for genesis. The main thing for me right now is that W Caribbean development is pretty strongly hinted at by all non-EPS ensembles, which has the support of ENSO based climo/analogs.

The GEPS looks like it is mainly developing a wave still not even coming off Africa for a few days. But the GEPS is inferior to the GEFS/EPS.

[toad strangler]

Happy Hour 18z GFS forgot to stop at the bar