2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

Not so fast but eventually the Atlantic will turn active.

[url]https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1293632339784892418[url]

These are good points. But the fact of the matter is that these aren't like the big bad 2014-2018 EPAC systems. Most of these modeled systems are either much smaller in size so limited outflow and much weaker than forecast. Also a lot of these systems have had to move further west in order to develop. The global models EPAC TC exaggeration is on another level this year.

Still though, how many of us even thought the East Pacific would produce after being mostly dormant from mid-May through July outside of Douglas?

[Steve]

Probably everybody right? It’s the EPAC. There’s going to be something.

[gatorcane]

Noticed the NAO may be going back into negative territory over the next couple of weeks which could mean troughiness over the eastern seaboard of the US:

[NDG]

Noticed the NAO may be going back into negative territory over the next couple of weeks which could mean troughiness over the eastern seaboard of the US:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhGcYzzv/nao-sprd2.gif

Notice that ~90% July was in a -NAO pattern, but there was nothing close to a troughiness pattern across the eastern seaboard, overall.
Glad you used the word "could"

[hurricaneCW]

Noticed the NAO may be going back into negative territory over the next couple of weeks which could mean troughiness over the eastern seaboard of the US:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhGcYzzv/nao-sprd2.gif

I don't think so, we're very likely going to see the same ole pattern with strong eastern Canadian and northern new England ridging.

MJO heading to phase 8-2 strongly favors east coast impacts.

[MississippiWx]

Noticed the NAO may be going back into negative territory over the next couple of weeks which could mean troughiness over the eastern seaboard of the US:

https://i.postimg.cc/JhGcYzzv/nao-sprd2.gif

-NAO in the summer does not equal -NAO in the winter.

[1900hurricane]

Still approaching the climatological big hit of activity.

[USTropics]

Instead of looking at named storms, why not look at ACE instead? It's possible VPA will have a stronger correlation with that. Here's how seasons beginning in 1950 ranked in terms of ACE for the August 15-31st time period. The top ten seasons are highlighted in yellow.

https://i.imgur.com/yjDSwa9.png

Love your work, is your ACE/TIKE DB public by chance? I thought you linked it one time but not seeing it on your site. There's a lack of being able to efficiently track individual ACE by storm or specific time periods (working with iBTrACS but going to be a bit before I finish that project -https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index.php?name=ib-v4-access). All but 2007 are included in the VP anomalies I posted above with 4+ storms in the second 1/2 of August. Similarly observed VP anomaly patterns are present in 2007:


Using all 10 of your ACE selected years, only 2004 differentiates from observed positive VP anomalies over Africa/IO in the latter half of August:


Composite of all 10 ACE selected season:

[Steve]

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

Still Phase 6, but we'll be in Phase 7 or the circle heading toward 8 by tomorrow according to the GFS. If' I've got the timing right, expect a few spin-ups along the way, but more expect a burst after August 27th. GFS has again moved its most concentrated area of upward motion farther east to where it's now centered across the lower portion of Central America. Delay that 4-6 days and you're in around September 1st to the 3rd. From then on, things are liable to be wild at least for a few weeks if you go with the GFS.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1293898851443761153

[SFLcane]

http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1293898851443761153?s=21

Ok i have to...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293906810500333568

[SFLcane]

Once the epac quites down and the MJO+ strong KW move into the Atlantic it could be a historic outbreak just around the corner.

[crownweather]

Meaning the GFS model is going to be playing catch-up BIG TIME in the next couple of weeks with TC formation forecasts.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960

[Kazmit]

IMO it's looking like the lid may come off about a week later than usual- the very end of August instead of around the 20th.

[Cpv17]

IMO it's looking like the lid may come off about a week later than usual- the very end of August instead of around the 20th.

I’d say sometime after the 25th.

[Steve]

IMO it's looking like the lid may come off about a week later than usual- the very end of August instead of around the 20th.

I’d say sometime after the 25th.

Reasonable. I think it's a few days after that (very late August/beginning of September). We might get to Kyle or Laura by then, but it's still kind of pre-peak.

GFS has finally come on board with the majority of the MJO models to no longer stick around the far 8/1 border. It's now dropping into 8 by the weekend and then should be firmly in 1 by the end of the run (8/27).

Global Forecast System - GFS


Climate Forecast System - CFS


Canadian


European (note - this run keeps it playing around in Phase 1)


Japanese Model - JMA (note that it still wants to drop it straight to favorable across the circle. It usually only updates on NCEP's site once a week. It's headed for Phase 2, but I don't think that's the way it gets there.

[EquusStorm]

Is the usual GOES imagery high-res source on the NHC site from NESDIS consistently down for everyone lately or just me

[SFLcane]

Stop hugging the long-range GFS folks..

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960

[Steve]

Stop hugging the long-range GFS folks..

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960

That's been a recent topic of discussion. You've had to adjust it for known biases to come up with what you really think will happen. One of those known biases is what it's been doing in the EPAC vs. what's actually happening. Plus we know the MJO isn't going to stay in that region and will progress across the Atlantic. So the proverbial "with a grain of salt" definitely applies when looking at it.