2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour 18z GFS forgot to stop at the bar

OMG hilarious!

And here's the Happy Hour GEFS to go along with it. It looks like it may have imbibed a little bit:

[SFLcane]

That was funny...

12z GFS-P

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour 31 member para GEFS (vs 21 members for GEFS): it looks like it imbibed, too, with ~1/4 looking scary and many weaker lows: this doesn't look like it is slipping to me

[gatorcane]

Saved GEFS parallel loop. You can see genesis is from some kind of westward moving wave in the Caribbean in the ~240 hour timeframe. May have some merit:



That looks to be the wave just off of Africa. Quite a noticeable spin and low latitude, looks like it is right around 10N:

[TheStormExpert]

Happy Hour 31 member para GEFS (vs 21 members for GEFS): it looks like it imbibed, too, with ~1/4 looking scary and many weaker lows: this doesn't look like it is slipping to me

https://i.imgur.com/6grNwwB.png

Really the timeframe has been coming in slowly but surely. You will also have the favorable phase of the MJO moving from west to east into the western part of the Atlantic basin in early October which coincides with this.

Should see the Euro jump onboard you’d think within the next few days, then again it’s 2020 and the models have been preforming horrible so this is an impressive signal.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hate to say it but it looks like the timeframe on the 00z GFS is reeling this in closer. Looks like something comes off of South America around hour 222, October 1st, and starts to spin up. The next few hours leading up to 300 should be interesting.

[WeatherEmperor]

Development starts around 240hrs and moves NE towards Cuba/South Florida. Still in fantasy land but the consistency is interesting





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[WeatherEmperor]

Even more super fantasy land range but it does show a Forida landfall




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[Hurricaneman]

Major hurricane near Naples at 342, but it seems to start development around day 10 so it’s getting close to not being fantasy, let’s see what the euro has the next few runs

[SouthFLTropics]

Major hurricane near Naples at 342, but it seems to start development around day 10 so it’s getting close to not being fantasy, let’s see what the euro has the next few runs

Yeah, it's definitely reeling the time in. I would suggest that we should start to see something on the CMC and Euro by Wednesday evening at least, assuming the GFS timeline is correct.

[Ubuntwo]

The 0z GFS development is spurred by a wave that emerges off Africa in only 72hr. In fact the 12z euro picks up on the same wave.

[SouthFLTropics]

Interestingly enough, the CMC has its own take on things... Hmmmm

[Ubuntwo]

The UKM has a moderate MDR TS, spawned by the same wave the CMC+GFS develop. Spins up much quicker so it gains latitude and may not be a threat this run.

[Fancy1001]

Interestingly enough, the CMC has its own take on things... Hmmmm

https://i.imgur.com/DD2wsuD.gif

This could be our 2020 category 5.

[SouthFLTropics]

Interestingly enough, the CMC has its own take on things... Hmmmm

https://i.imgur.com/DD2wsuD.gif

This could be our 2020 category 5.

I don't even want to think about it...

[blp]

00z GFS-Para ensembles has more members in agreement with CMC on origin system. Oh boy looks like trouble coming.

[blp]

Here is Ukmet

[Fancy1001]

00z GFS-Para ensembles has more members in agreement with CMC on origin system. Oh boy looks like trouble coming.

https://i.ibb.co/4P3PHBt/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-watl-39.png

https://i.ibb.co/0f84sfZ/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-watl-52.png

One of those ensembles reaches 907mb and enters the gulf as a cat 5, hope that happens.

[kevin]

00z GFS-Para ensembles has more members in agreement with CMC on origin system. Oh boy looks like trouble coming.

https://i.ibb.co/4P3PHBt/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-watl-39.png

https://i.ibb.co/0f84sfZ/gfs-ememb-para-lowlocs-watl-52.png

One of those ensembles reaches 907mb and enters the gulf as a cat 5, hope that happens.

Considering all that has happened so far, it wouldn't even surprise me at this point. Wilma 2: electric boogaloo.

[SFLcane]

Interesting developments overnight hmm... CMC and Ukmet come onboard. Might very well not be a ghost storm.