2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[canebeard]

This is one fantastical wish map for Nov 8 : 200 mb 384 gfs+++

[LarryWx]

I still think the GFS is out to lunch with its climo unflavored E Caribbean geneses. The two recent runs being the weakest through late next week in the E Car are imho hinting to us that that is the case and that it will quite possibly stop showing E Car geneses within a few runs. OTOH, the 18Z GEFS is about as active with geneses in early November in the W Car as has been the case with any recent run. This is similar to the increased activity there on the two most recent EPS runs though the GEFS is quite a bit more active. Imho, it is the C or W Caribbean where we should be wary about a possible TCG next week rather than the E Car that the GFS has been insisting on.

Do you think this is one of those moments of the GFS north/east "bias"?

Until you asked, I wasn't thinking about that. But perhaps kind of sort of in this case because of overdevelopment? Regardless, the GFS has seemingly had a bias this season to develop stuff coming off SA.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think where the storm goes can be focused on later rather than now; what genuinely intrigues me is how there is consensus that SOMETHING may try to develop in the Caribbean around Halloween and become a decently robust hurricane. Tis the spooky season....

[LarryWx]

And now the 0Z GFS at hour 198 has the strongest H it has had at that forecast timeframe with 970 mb S of Hispaniola.

[Landy]

GFS has been moving the Caribbean disturbance forward in time pretty quickly. Closed low is nearly within short-range.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS has a very strong TC south of Hispaniola.
It appears the run-to-run tendency is moving the general track west.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1584523902134325248

[LarryWx]

After having had the two weakest runs (yesterday's 12Z and 18Z) since the string of GFS ECar Hs started with the 6Z 10/21 run, the last two runs (0Z/6Z) have gone the opposite way to the strongest through hour 198 (12Z on 11/1)! I still think the GFS' idea of a H in the ECar is wrong and that any TCG, if there is any, would likely wait til the C or WCar. This is quite the interesting situation from a forecasting perspective with such major differences persisting among the main models!

[blp]

After having had the two weakest runs (yesterday's 12Z and 18Z) since the string of GFS ECar Hs started with the 6Z 10/21 run, the last two runs (0Z/6Z) have gone the opposite way to the strongest through hour 198 (12Z on 11/1)! I still think the GFS' idea of a H in the ECar is wrong and that any TCG, if there is any, would likely wait til the C or WCar. This is quite the interesting situation from a forecasting perspective with such major differences persisting among the main models!

The EPS so far with a weak signal favoring the W. Caribbean. I think everyone is waiting to see which way the Euro OPS goes once it starts to show up. Will be interesting for sure.

[aspen]

12z GFS starts development even earlier than previous runs, on October 29th instead of the 30th/31st.

[chris_fit]

CMC drops it for the 2nd run in a row.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS starts development even earlier than previous runs, on October 29th instead of the 30th/31st.

After having the two weakest runs since the 6Z 10/21 run at 12Z and 18Z yesterday and thus looking to me like it was quite possibly getting close to giving up on a H in the E Car, these last 3 (0Z, 6Z, 12Z) have been the strongest in the E Car! I still think the exclusive to GFS idea of a H in the E Car from this is out to lunch based on a combo of bias, relative lack of model support, and climo and that a TCG from this, if any, would thus wait til the C or W Caribbean, but we'll see. The GFS has done this kind of thing in the past where it would stubbornly hold onto a H run after run on its own only to later abandon it, sometimes abruptly. It is almost as if the GFS is a trolling model at times lol.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS says not so far South Florida as far as getting out of 2022 unscathed. Thankfully in the long-range:

[blp]

CMC drops it for the 2nd run in a row.

I think what it dropped was W.Carribean orgin solution. If you look at the 850mb vorticity on rhe last two runs it has shifted closer to the GFS in the E. Carribean but unlike the GFS it is too quick and it gets strung out with the big low over SW Atlantic and gets pulled apart.

For now the Icon, CMC, GFS going fo E Carribean origin. Models trending with more ridging in the longer range so it may end up in the W.Carribean anyways in the long range.

[blp]

12z GFS starts development even earlier than previous runs, on October 29th instead of the 30th/31st.

After having the two weakest runs since the 6Z 10/21 run at 12Z and 18Z yesterday and thus looking to me like it was quite possible getting close to gaining up on a H in the E Car, these last 3 (0Z, 6Z, 12Z) have been the strongest in the E Car! I still think the exclusive to GFS idea of a H in the E Car from this is out to lunch based on a combo of bias, relative lack of model support, and climo and that a TCG from this, if any, would thus wait til the C or W Caribbean, but we'll see. The GFS has done this kind of thing in the past where it would stubbornly hold onto a H run after run on its own only to later abandon it, sometimes abruptly. It is almost as if the GFS is a trolling model at times lol.

Always appreciate the analysis. A couple points though. I think historically the GFS development bias is based primarily in the W.Carribean and not E. Carribean but I could be wrong. Second it does have the Icon and to a lesser degree the CMC with similar ideas so it's not on an island with model support. I do agree we can't trust the upper pattern forecast for one minute with the GFS. Patiently waiting for the Euro to clear things up, hopefully soon.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS… Showing system in medium range starting in E Caribbean in 4 days, then the rest is fantasy…

[MetroMike]

Like Joe Bastardi noted GFS shows a Kate Track back in 1985 which was the strongest Hurricane in the Gulf that late in the year according to him.

[chris_fit]

12z GEFS are active, but all over the place. Never seem them so unclustered.

[GCANE]

I know this is way out there, but GFS is pretty good about forecasting UL conditions.
If a TC finds its way into the GOM, GFS is showing a massive ARWB in the GoM.
The deepest I have ever seen.
Like I said, this is way out there.
Hopefully, a TC won't develop or if it does, it gets shredded in the Antilles.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS starts development even earlier than previous runs, on October 29th instead of the 30th/31st.

After having the two weakest runs since the 6Z 10/21 run at 12Z and 18Z yesterday and thus looking to me like it was quite possible getting close to gaining up on a H in the E Car, these last 3 (0Z, 6Z, 12Z) have been the strongest in the E Car! I still think the exclusive to GFS idea of a H in the E Car from this is out to lunch based on a combo of bias, relative lack of model support, and climo and that a TCG from this, if any, would thus wait til the C or W Caribbean, but we'll see. The GFS has done this kind of thing in the past where it would stubbornly hold onto a H run after run on its own only to later abandon it, sometimes abruptly. It is almost as if the GFS is a trolling model at times lol.

Always appreciate the analysis. A couple points though. I think historically the GFS development bias is based primarily in the W.Carribean and not E. Carribean but I could be wrong. Second it does have the Icon and to a lesser degree the CMC with similar ideas so it's not on an island with model support. I do agree we can't trust the upper pattern forecast for one minute with the GFS. Patiently waiting for the Euro to clear things up, hopefully soon.

Thank you.
I mean that the GFS has had an overdevelopment bias this season in the southern Caribbean off of South America. I'm wary of that coming into play now.

The 12Z ICON doesn't have actual TCG until the C Caribbean and it isn't more than a TS as of hour 180. And sometimes the ICON has overdone things this season. The 12Z CMC has only a very weak low and no TCG. The 12Z UK, Euro, and JMA have very little til a weak low in the SW Car. I'm currently more interested in that part of the Car for potential TCG next week. These model wars make these forecasting threads extra fun!

The GFS is developing this at least partially from vorticity located now per the model near 9N, 50W. I wonder how it is looking there right now.