2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081




A lot of OTS storms potential in today's run



Precip plots are a different story though

[cycloneye]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081

Waiting for NMME. When does it come out?

[IsabelaWeather]

How do we go from "warm subtropics are bad" to "cold subtropics are bad" in the blink of an eye and now there wont be any storms because of it when a few days ago it was hugely important that subtropics are colder?

[skyline385]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081

Waiting for NMME. When does it come out?

I think NMME is 7th and SEAS5 is tomorrow.

[AnnularCane]

Everyone knew the numbers would likely be lowered a little and that it would likely not mean much if at all. At least that seemed to be the case before they actually came out.

[NotSparta]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081

Waiting for NMME. When does it come out?

Should come out on Sunday

[cycloneye]

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081

Waiting for NMME. When does it come out?

Should come out on Sunday

Thank you. That model had a very active season in July and that is why I want to see if it mantains that.

[Patrick99]

What is "wavebreaking?" Is it just a buzzword for dry air suppressing tropical waves?

[zzh]

Again, subtropics is not a whole. The parts that are unrelated to seasonal ace or even negatively affect ace are the western and central part, not the eastern part.

[skyline385]

Again, subtropics is not a whole. The parts that are unrelated to seasonal ace or even negatively affect ace are the western and central part, not the eastern part.

Its also visible on the ACE-SST plots from the CSU forecasts

[aspen]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

This will probably improve the mood here further, completely forgot today was weekly day.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555300254534275081

A lot of OTS storms potential in today's run

https://i.imgur.com/mIJkoO1.png

Precip plots are a different story though

https://i.imgur.com/gjfFRKp.png

What hasn’t changed about the Euro weekly TCG chance map is the heightened possibility of something off the mid-Atlantic coast. It’s been on there for weeks now. It’s hard to tell if it’s either a frontal spin-up, or one of the several possible MDR systems that get dragged north.

[captainbarbossa19]

How do we go from "warm subtropics are bad" to "cold subtropics are bad" in the blink of an eye and now there wont be any storms because of it when a few days ago it was hugely important that subtropics are colder?

It reminds me of that "season-cancel" diagram that someone posted on here a few weeks ago. It doesn't matter what the topic is. Everything eventually leads to season-cancel it seems.

In all seriousness, I think this season has a lot more going for it than against it. It is just a matter of time before we have storms to track.

[AJC3]

What is "wavebreaking?" Is it just a buzzword for dry air suppressing tropical waves?

You can think of it much like an ocean wave. Cyclonic wave breaking (CWB) occurs when the amplitude of a mid-upper level short wave trough becomes too large compared to its wavelength. Anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) occurs when the amplitude of a mid-upper level short wave ridge becomes too large compared to its wavelength. The processes of both CWB and AWB are accompanied by and increase in deformation and wind shear, which creates unvfavorable/less favorable conditions when and where it occurs. In this case, I believe the wave breaking being referred to is AWB.

In the context of the (sub)tropics, let's look at the semi-permanent mid-oceanic TUTT. Its strongest reflection occurs at about 200MB, In the summer, when amplification of the NHEM flow occurs (i.e. development of short wave troughs and ridges), wave breaking will eventually occur when they reach the Atlantic basin and are of significant amplitude (they drill far enough south into the subtropics), and invariably interact with the TUTT to some degree. During the wave break process, the resulant amplification of the TUTT causes the upper level westerlies to strengthen and drop southward from the subtropics into the central-western Atlantic MDR. After an AWB occurs, development (and westward retrogression) of a cutoff low results, although these cutoffs vary greatly in terms of size, strength, persistence, movement, etc. Generally a piece of the TUTT fractures off an retrogrades westward underneath the rebuilding mid-upper ridge. This stronger winds/shear will then move away from the area as retrogression occurs. This is cyclical, and more frequent wave breaking is a sign of more frequent interaction between between northern stream Atlantic troughs and the TUTT. In my experience, this more frequent interaction occurs when there is anamalously strong mid-upper ridging over NOAM/CONUS (think heat waves), which causes lower heights downstream over the Atlantic. However, this doesn't seem to be the case as 500-200MB heights have been above normal across virtually the entire Atlantic since 1 JUL.

Explaining atmospheric waves, breaks and the TUTT isn't the easiest thing in the world to do while keeping it simple, but hopefully this helps you grasp the concept a little.

[soapbox]
As I've stated in previous posts, I don't count all mid to upper level troughs/lows in the subtropics as TUTTs, only ones which have significant interaction with the TUTT . The others I'll often refer to as "TUTT-type" lows. Operationally here in Florida, I've found that there's an important difference in that a true TUTT (troughs or cutoff low) will almost always have a weaker reflection at 500MB than a non TUTT counterpart. (TUTT has been overused/incorrectly applied to non-TUTT features, but that's a rant for another day). [/soapbox]

[SFLcane]

We could see several long track monsters if its right! ACE values expected to be nearly 50% above average

[skyline385]

I had a feeling that the SEAS5 forecast would be overly bullish because of how the weeklies have been trending but 192 ACE is just too much especially when we don’t even have anything solid on the ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555543042530189319




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555543371296415745




 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1555541739796107264

[SFLcane]

I had a feeling that the SEAS5 forecast would be overly bullish because of how the weeklies have been trending but 192 ACE is just too much especially when we don’t even have anything solid on the ensembles.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555543042530189319

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555543371296415745

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1555541739796107264

Its surely possible with a few long track cv storms. Mitch is an example

[aspen]

We could see several long track monsters if its right! ACE values expected to be nearly 50% above average

https://i.postimg.cc/QMp4tM9q/wcmwf.png

This doesn’t seem right. >190 ACE is far too high for this season at this point, but 5 hurricanes also seems a little low for a +AMO era/-ENSO year, unless this season does massively under-achieve. You’d need another Ivan or Irma to get such a high ACE per storm season, and I just don’t see that happening in a year with a northerly displaced ITCZ and possible frequent undercutting troughs.

Also, has there really been any consistent trend in the weeklies? The TCG probability map showed northerly displaced tracks and recurves, but the precipitation plot showed a possible Caribbean runner. Not much of an agreement this time around, so it doesn’t seem like there’s much of a trend other than it still showing some possibility of MDR and East Coast action.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

We could see several long track monsters if its right! ACE values expected to be nearly 50% above average

https://i.postimg.cc/QMp4tM9q/wcmwf.png

That's...very high lol, unrealistically so even. We'll need a 2017-esque September to even come close to sniffing that value. Don't get me wrong we'll still get decent activity next month definitely and there will likely be major hurricanes roaming the Atlantic by then but I'm willing to bet we won't get 175 ACE within 30 days.

[skyline385]

I also posted it in the twitter thread about how June and July have much higher correlation and less RMS error which matches Andy’s theory about August forecasts being prone to intraseasonal variations.

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1555561692993552385

[Teban54]

I also posted it in the twitter thread about how June and July have much higher correlation and less RMS error which matches Andy’s theory about August forecasts being prone to intraseasonal variations.

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1555561692993552385

But as seen from the thread, June and July ACE forecasts for 2022 are also just as aggressive. And given the suppressed base state for much of July and early August, so even if the August forecast was affected by the initialization, you would expect it to be bearish, not bullish.