2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[blp]

Even though the 12z CMC ops does not develop. The 12Z GEPS continues to be aggressive and follows the GFS track.

[Deshaunrob17]

All I know is expect serious flooodiing issues across the Caribbean over the next 2 weeks.. This includes Puerto Rico.. PR could be first in line tomorrow with several inches of rain from approaching trough… T&T also with an approaching wave.. I must say this pattern looks like gyre like pattern that we commonly in Central America

[canebeard]

Like Joe Bastardi noted GFS shows a Kate Track back in 1985 which was the strongest Hurricane in the Gulf that late in the year according to him.

For anyone interested:

Below is link to 8 minute video of Kate, shot at Cape San Blas and Mexico Beach, FL; November 22,1985. Satellite loops until max intensity of 125 mph in SE Gulf, before it passed over waters about 70 or less near coast. Sun is setting during the eye at Mexico Beach, and wallcloud is only about 25,000 ft high; as storm is literally filling. Wind never got below30 miles inside the eye, Highest gusts:100 mph measured at Cape San Blas, 90 mph at Mexico Beach, estimated.



Link: https://youtu.be/RK9v1_AaFtg

[aspen]

18z GFS once again gets a TS in 5-7 days, but instead had a much more probable westward/Caribbean Cruiser track. So far it’s down to 924mb south of Jamaica.

Edit: 919mb heading north towards Jamaica on 11/5

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really tough to write the GFS solution as convective feedback as it has consistently advanced the timeline. Remarkably consistent too.

[cycloneye]

Here is the loop of 18z GFS.




Edit=Turns left north of Bahamas (Very long range)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1584670386020823040




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1584670478165106688




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1584670525158092800

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Showing a system in the E Caribbean in the 4-5 day range… GFS over past 6+ runs I think has taken out every Caribbean Island, Panhandle, Bahamas, and latest beeline towards FL… Consistently all over the place!

[gatorcane]

18z GFS once again gets a TS in 5-7 days, but instead had a much more probable westward/Caribbean Cruiser track. So far it’s down to 924mb south of Jamaica.

Edit: 919mb heading north towards Jamaica on 11/5

If also was remarkably consistent with Roslyn forming in the EPAC while other models played catchup.

Interesting how some of the GFS and GEPS show some kind of turn back to the west or WNW in the Bahamas

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, GFS really loved the idea of a 1932 Cuba-like storm, huh?

[CFLHurricane]

Interesting how some of the GFS and GEPS show some kind of turn back to the west or WNW in the Bahamas

I couldn’t help but literally LOL at the latest GFS. There’s no way a ‘cane is getting that close to Florida this late in the season. The GFS must be haunted for Halloween

[OuterBanker]

Whoa!!! Look out Boca!!!. GFS fantasy still very much alive.

[SFLcane]

Interesting how some of the GFS and GEPS show some kind of turn back to the west or WNW in the Bahamas

I couldn’t help but literally LOL at the latest GFS. There’s no way a ‘cane is getting that close to Florida this late in the season. The GFS must be haunted for Halloween

Indeed it’s highly unlikely this model has turned into a complete joke with a high rate of bogus canes in the Caribbean. The Jet stream is now fully intrenched over the gulf and Florida and anything that tries will be in for a serious haircut.

[Iceresistance]

Interesting how some of the GFS and GEPS show some kind of turn back to the west or WNW in the Bahamas

I couldn’t help but literally LOL at the latest GFS. There’s no way a ‘cane is getting that close to Florida this late in the season. The GFS must be haunted for Halloween

All I can say here is that someone (or something) has possessed the GFS model!

[LarryWx]

Really tough to write the GFS solution as convective feedback as it has consistently advanced the timeline. Remarkably consistent too.

Trust me when I say that it still isn't that tough to write off the GFS, especially when it still has only limited outside support. I've seen the GFS do this kind of thing run after run, including advancing the timeline, and still end up failing. I should clarify and say that whereas I still think the GFS is OTL, I'm not completely writing this off yet.

[aspen]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gkjhFxTM/gfs-ow850-watl-fh102-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS… Showing a system in the E Caribbean in the 4-5 day range… GFS over past 6+ runs I think has taken out every Caribbean Island, Panhandle, Bahamas, and latest beeline towards FL… Consistently all over the place!

I think we’re starting to see the GFS correct towards a far more likely W/WNW track similar to Julia, since the setup for the two storms seems to be rather similar. The ICON has shown this too.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS run is fun. Season is not over yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really tough to write the GFS solution as convective feedback as it has consistently advanced the timeline. Remarkably consistent too.

Trust me when I say that it still isn't that tough to write off the GFS, especially when it still has only limited outside support. I've seen the GFS do this kind of thing run after run, including advancing the timeline, and still end up failing. I should clarify and say that whereas I still think the GFS is OTL, I'm not completely writing this off yet.

We'll see. I've watched the inverse play out just as many times (GFS sniffing it out, Euro dropping the ball completely). ICON also has it, FWIW.

[michelinj]

If we get Lisa from 94L and this storm were to form after, it would take Martin, the replacement name for Matthew in 2016. That GFS run is uncannily similar to Matthew's path, heading west in the later half of the season, before a turn North and then west through the Bahamas. Not saying it will happen exactly like this, in fact I'm certain it won't! But just a curious similarity between Matthew and his potential successor!

[blp]

Looks like CMC is back on board with development further west inline with Icon.