2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/W4YCXxfM/A45-C8-AD4-9-B4-B-4-EBF-BC36-EDACF955-A410.jpg

Ha that’s a pretty bizarre looking evolution of that system. Like a TS and cat1 joined at the hip

Probably a sloppy and sheared TS or low end Cat 1 getting pulled quickly out of the Caribbean and riding the front North Northeast. Large coverage area but quick moving. You can see it gets snatched out of the Caribbean and is up to near Georgia within 36 hours. Irene from 1999 may be a good analog.

At 342 hours it's just a long range signal. Nobody should interpret these far flung maps with any specifics in mind. Not saying you are as you are probably just commenting on the verbatim output.

[tolakram]

Yea. Having the GFS show development at this range usually means conditions will be decent for formation at that time, but no way to nail down any specifics or even if anything develops.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ha that’s a pretty bizarre looking evolution of that system. Like a TS and cat1 joined at the hip

Probably a sloppy and sheared TS or low end Cat 1 getting pulled quickly out of the Caribbean and riding the front North Northeast. Large coverage area but quick moving. You can see it gets snatched out of the Caribbean and is up to near Georgia within 36 hours. Irene from 1999 may be a good analog.

At 342 hours it's just a long range signal. Nobody should interpret these far flung maps with any specifics in mind. Not saying you are as you are probably just commenting on the verbatim output.

Bingo... Run to run will show something different. That's what I see on that run. Next run it could be a Cat 5. The main idea is that it appears something MAY come out of the Caribbean sometime within the first 10 days of October.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 204 on the 18z GFS... Looks like the catalyst comes off of the North coast of South America. Let's see how this plays out.

[SFLcane]

18z gfs long range with an intensifying hurricane headed for the gulfcoast it seems.

[Spacecoast]

Looks like Pensacola...

[Blown Away]

NW Caribbean most likely spot going into October, but this model storm has been 300+ hours out it seems like the past 4-5 days...

[CourierPR]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

[TheStormExpert]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

More of an excuse for him to be correct on his seasonal forecast which covered at least 75% of North Atlantic coastline.

[Steve]

Not to bag on him as probably a lot of people think there will be at least one more impact storm. It’s only September 22. But what he neglected to mention along with his political swipe was it’s a historic season. I don’t think people weaponize weather history.

[Spacecoast]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

Joe is the Master of vaguery.
What exactly is he predicting? Some type of storm will impact somebody, somewhere, at some time. At least one.
Perhaps coming from the south. Perhaps a major.
Amazingly, he can see this stuff coming by looking at past patterns.
Perhaps he's right.
He has ruled out a storm originating from the North Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

18z Gfs-p ensembles long range heading into the NW Caribbean then hooking into FL.

[N2FSU]

18z GFS


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[tomatkins]

Probably a sloppy and sheared TS or low end Cat 1 getting pulled quickly out of the Caribbean and riding the front North Northeast. Large coverage area but quick moving. You can see it gets snatched out of the Caribbean and is up to near Georgia within 36 hours. Irene from 1999 may be a good analog.

At 342 hours it's just a long range signal. Nobody should interpret these far flung maps with any specifics in mind. Not saying you are as you are probably just commenting on the verbatim output.

Bingo... Run to run will show something different. That's what I see on that run. Next run it could be a Cat 5. The main idea is that it appears something MAY come out of the Caribbean sometime within the first 10 days of October.

Its that time of the year when the day 10+ GFS always spins something up, but that thing never seems to make it to days 5-9.

[tomatkins]

12z GEFS Raw tracks... some weak signals / tracks emanating from system (id7) E of LA...

https://i.ibb.co/hKbZ3wJ/p-atl-GEFS-test.png

Is that teh remnants of Wilfred?

[St0rmTh0r]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

The last sentence is interesting. What exactly does he mean another run of weaponizing hurricanes? "We can see this stuff coming due to past patterns" this just really makes you think. That movie Geostorm might be on to something.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS now shows a TS/Cat1 hitting South Forida. Development starts around 222hrs





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[caneman]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

The last sentence is interesting. What exactly does he mean another run of weaponizing hurricanes? "We can see this stuff coming due to past patterns" this just really makes you think. That movie Geostorm might be on to something.

Without getting political here, I think he means some will use it as a way to promote the climate change theory as they have done previously or like they are doing with the wildfires. I'll leave it at that.

[CourierPR]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

The last sentence is interesting. What exactly does he mean another run of weaponizing hurricanes? "We can see this stuff coming due to past patterns" this just really makes you think. That movie Geostorm might be on to something.

My intent was simply to show that possible Caribbean development is not a figment of anyone's imagination. Bastardi does get political but his pattern recognition for cyclogenesis is very good.

[Ivanhater]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200923/a03303edada6c7db73f93283096bb4c7.jpg
18z GFS


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We are closed. Seriously