2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2521 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:30 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308712296693276675




That Cold that Gatorcane mentioned looks like it might help with development.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2522 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:52 am

06z GFS with a powerful hurricane heading NE towards FL.

Edit 950’S landfall near Fort Myers. Shades of Wilma in this run.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2523 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:02 am

Formidable TS now near 250 hr.. Time coming in

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2524 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:11 am

For reference... The last 8 runs of the GFS as of hour 306 today.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2525 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:18 am

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2526 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:20 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308717757530333184


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2527 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:23 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308721494172762113


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2528 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:30 am

Getting real interesting! I am starting to believe this is something to really watch here.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308730989691244544


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2529 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:43 am

Eric is all in apparently.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308732463712272384


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2530 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:48 am

Those untapped ssts could be a problem! :eek:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308732463712272384


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2531 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:01 am

Well this escalated quickly. I'm still quite bearish though on the catalyst here, far too much real estate for the "embryo" to traverse. What I am bullish on is the background state heading into October. So average those two out and this is intriguing.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2532 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:04 am

Could very well be the real deal here.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308738036969213953


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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2533 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:19 am

:eek:

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2534 Postby mlfreeman » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:08 am



That GIF has a glitch.
It goes 192h, 216h, 252h, 240h, 228h, 264h, 276h, then on into the 300 hour range.
Not sure why it jumped from 216 to 252 then went backwards.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2535 Postby blp » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:24 am

GEFS still showing more of an EPAC event. Not sold yet on the idea.

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2536 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:35 am

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06z GFS... NW Caribbean signal is there starting early October...
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2537 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:58 am

blp wrote:GEFS still showing more of an EPAC event. Not sold yet on the idea.

https://i.ibb.co/yY1RkY7/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh318-trend.gif


More reliable GFS-P is in the Caribbean.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2538 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:59 am

I still think this may be a EPAC event, despite the somewhat consistent cyclogenesis in the Caribbean.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2539 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:06 am

AutoPenalti wrote:I still think this will be a EPAC event, despite the somewhat consistent cyclogenesis in the Caribbean.


It's a possibility but based on what suggest this will be an epac event? Fact is signal is little more intriguing this morning as the GFS is moving up in time. We'll see if it continues

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2540 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:12 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/5GOcxV0.gif
06z GFS... NW Caribbean signal is there starting early October...

That’s ‘Charley-esque’ ‘04 in track and similar in intensity. Of course I know it’s still fantasy land range, but intriguing nonetheless.
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