2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Cpv17]

When do the steering currents become favorable again for possible East Coast impacts? A few weeks ago it seemed this year would have the opportunity to have more statistically more landfalling hurricanes, but as far as blocking patterns go it doesn’t seem like we’re in a favorable one currently at least for the East Coast.

Second half of September and into October is more likely for the EC.

[Steve]

When do the steering currents become favorable again for possible East Coast impacts? A few weeks ago it seemed this year would have the opportunity to have more statistically more landfalling hurricanes, but as far as blocking patterns go it doesn’t seem like we’re in a favorable one currently at least for the East Coast.

Opportunities should come and go with the patterns. It's mid-August so pretty much the middle of summer. You generally have high pressure in the Atlantic. That will ebb and flow based on tropical systems and upper systems coming off the continent. There should be plenty of times throughout the season where the east coast is exposed. Obviously as it gets later towards fall, the opportunities should increase.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1295151500713484290

[MetroMike]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1294962633582555137

Well maybe a bit more than one, sheesh.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1295348402583207936

[Cpv17]

http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1295348402583207936?s=21

Boy am I glad that the GFS may finally be coming to its senses. It looks like the Gulf is about to have two storms within a few days of each other. SST’s are between 29-32 celsius in the Gulf. Rocket fuel.

[StruThiO]

[CyclonicFury]

https://i.imgur.com/DRCaKLP.png

It's possible one or both of the current AOIs get the Atlantic past 2013 in ACE over the next 10 days.

[StruThiO]

https://i.imgur.com/DRCaKLP.png

It's possible one or both of the current AOIs get the Atlantic past 2013 in ACE over the next 10 days.

my thoughts exactly. for anyone who doesn't know, ACE was merely 36 units that year

[aspen]

I can’t believe how a week prior to today there were multiple season doubt posts, and now it’s possible that a week from today, there’ll be two TCs threatening the United States. Talk about a quick flip of the switch.

98L has the most attention and model support as of now, but we shouldn’t let 97L be ignored. If it goes into the Gulf, it’ll have some of the highest SSTs in the world to work with, even if it might be for 1-2 days.

[EquusStorm]

Seems like absolute clockwork; 2017 before Harvey, 2018 before Florence, 2019 before Dorian. Then 2016 before Matthew and 2015 before Joaquin probably. I kinda expect the cancel posts but it's weird to see them when it disagrees with literally all the experts

[Hammy]

I thought this was the indicators thread, all I see are people complaining about season cancel posts from weeks ago.

[StruThiO]

I thought this was the indicators thread, all I see are people complaining about season cancel posts from weeks ago.

You may need glasses then.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1295443555759140868

[Kingarabian]

The models continue to have the EPAC active -- even as the Atlantic wakes up from its brief nap. It occasionally happens during brief spells where both basins coexist and have active TC's.

[Steve]

I thought this was the indicators thread, all I see are people complaining about season cancel posts from weeks ago.

Indications are they've flown the coop again and anticipate returning in January or February of 2021 to knock on next season.

[Hammy]

We're already looking at two potentially strong storms in the next week or so and this isn't even the lid coming off yet--the CFS has been run after run showing pretty much every wave developing in the first half of September now, and all appearing to be long trackers.

[MarioProtVI]

We're already looking at two potentially strong storms in the next week or so and this isn't even the lid coming off yet--the CFS has been run after run showing pretty much every wave developing in the first half of September now, and all appearing to be long trackers.

I like to call it the “switch flip”

[aspen]

We're already looking at two potentially strong storms in the next week or so and this isn't even the lid coming off yet--the CFS has been run after run showing pretty much every wave developing in the first half of September now, and all appearing to be long trackers.

If that verifies...oh boy, that’s gonna be a lot of ACE-makers. Possibly trying to make up for the lowest ACE for a season’s first 10 named storms.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1295443555759140868

This is pretty scary. Hyperactivity highly likely and that phase is suppose to stick for a while. Never seen anything like this.