2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2581 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:10 am

Buckle up, the real season is yet to come.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1296050116424589312


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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2582 Postby Visioen » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:14 am

I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2583 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:35 am

Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

How do you figure that???
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2584 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:55 am

Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

Since July there have been only one wave that was designated as an invest but never developed. It's 94L and that's about it.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2585 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:06 am

Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

Waves take time to consolidate which can be frustrating, but a lot have developed this season.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2586 Postby Visioen » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:11 am

LOL I meant it as everything spins up this season, so it's remarkable when it doesn't. Even more remarkable than big hurricanes etc because not developing is so rare. Failed post...
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2587 Postby Visioen » Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:59 am

I envision situations like "What?! Why didn't this wave develop? Is something off? <insert conspiracy theory>" with people citing experts on Twitter on how this could happen.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2588 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:05 am

It's very rare for Hurricanes to form period. On average you get 5 or 6 a year. Obviously active seasons produce more. Conditions have to be near perfect for major hurricanes which is even more rare. All these storms spinning up is beyond normal
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2589 Postby Visioen » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:48 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:It's very rare for Hurricanes to form period. On average you get 5 or 6 a year. Obviously active seasons produce more. Conditions have to be near perfect for major hurricanes which is even more rare. All these storms spinning up is beyond normal

:D Good to know :wink:

I should probably quit the hyperbole.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2590 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:57 am

Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

Almost everything has been developing but for the most part everything has been weak and short-lived. Kind of reminds me of years like 2012 where there was a lot of weak storms with of course Sandy and to a much less degree Isaac.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2591 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:58 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

Almost everything has been developing but for the most part everything has been weak and short-lived. Kind of reminds me of years like 2012 where there was a lot of weak storms with of course Sandy and to a much less degree Isaac.

As is typical for the early season. The next 10 days is when we typically start to see stronger storms.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2592 Postby Visioen » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

Almost everything has been developing but for the most part everything has been weak and short-lived. Kind of reminds me of years like 2012 where there was a lot of weak storms with of course Sandy and to a much less degree Isaac.

I thought the debate about conditions before august 20th was settled decades ago?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2593 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:27 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Visioen wrote:I feel like the most remarkable things to happen this season will be waves not developing.

Almost everything has been developing but for the most part everything has been weak and short-lived. Kind of reminds me of years like 2012 where there was a lot of weak storms with of course Sandy and to a much less degree Isaac.

As is typical for the early season. The next 10 days is when we typically start to see stronger storms.

I’m in a kind of I’ll believe it when I see it mood. 98L. Should have no problem becoming a major hurricane. Other than land interaction.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2594 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:16 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Almost everything has been developing but for the most part everything has been weak and short-lived. Kind of reminds me of years like 2012 where there was a lot of weak storms with of course Sandy and to a much less degree Isaac.

As is typical for the early season. The next 10 days is when we typically start to see stronger storms.

I’m in a kind of I’ll believe it when I see it mood. 98L. Should have no problem becoming a major hurricane. Other than land interaction.

even if 98L doesn't, i'm sure you're gonna see plenty of quality storms lol. those favorable conditions don't even fully align before the 25th anyways. but it will be very favorable when they arrive.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2595 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Almost everything has been developing but for the most part everything has been weak and short-lived. Kind of reminds me of years like 2012 where there was a lot of weak storms with of course Sandy and to a much less degree Isaac.

As is typical for the early season. The next 10 days is when we typically start to see stronger storms.

I’m in a kind of I’ll believe it when I see it mood. 98L. Should have no problem becoming a major hurricane. Other than land interaction.


The Euro and Gfs would like to have a word with you!
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2596 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:10 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:As is typical for the early season. The next 10 days is when we typically start to see stronger storms.

I’m in a kind of I’ll believe it when I see it mood. 98L. Should have no problem becoming a major hurricane. Other than land interaction.


The Euro and Gfs would like to have a word with you!


If the Euro/GFS had their way we'd only be up to Dolly or Edouard with no hurricanes
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2597 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:16 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:As is typical for the early season. The next 10 days is when we typically start to see stronger storms.

I’m in a kind of I’ll believe it when I see it mood. 98L. Should have no problem becoming a major hurricane. Other than land interaction.


The Euro and Gfs would like to have a word with you!

The same models that have been just as crazy as this year?
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2599 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:17 pm

For all those that like mentioning 2013, it's a distinct possibility we could be at 14-2-0 at some point soon with the two hurricanes both Category 1 if all three AOIs develop into tropical storms. :lol:

If it does happen, it won't stay that way though.
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Re: 2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#2600 Postby StruThiO » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:00 pm

Image

It's almost time for the ringing of the bell.
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