Potential in the GOM?

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like something is getting its act together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like something is getting its act together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

My untrained eyes see possibly a linear low level feature being sheared badly (but the shearing is keeping the storms firing).


30 knots of shear suggests nothing is getting its act together. In my unprofessional opinion.

That said, 6Z GFS predicts shear dropping beneath an upper level low (not that favorable) in the Gulf in a couple of days, with shear in the Bay of Campeche becoming light under an anticyclone, more favorable, in 6 days.


Hmm, 6Z GFS likes a potential Cristobal coming off Africa and coming further South than Bertha towards the Caribbean. Doesn't see wave that was 93L doing much.

[TexWx]

I do see a little spin between Corpus & Brownsville
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I'm sure of it.

[Sjones]

I do see a little spin between Corpus & Brownsville
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

I'm sure of it.

yes indeed, i see it as well

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL****

IMO, because convection has really flared up in intensity
and broadened in scope (see the loop above), I do think
there is a distinct possibility for a tropical
depression or mininal tropical storm
before this area moves over
southeast and south Texas.
So I expect to see some squally
weather over south Texas the next
2-3 days.

[Sanibel]

I think that Texas business screams formation, but the surface center moved over Mexico.

[KatDaddy]

Just back from the Moody Gardens in Galveston. Being a weather person I knew we had squall moving in from the GOM disturbance. You could see the TCUs About 15 minutes out I packed up and said we are outta here. It was moving N quickly. The gust front hit as we were just walking across the parking lot. Gusts of 35kts. We were peppered with Crepe Murdels and dust. The winds was a blowing and the scuds a racing. It was a hello from the tropics. On the way home we experienced very heavy tropical rains and gusting winds between 30-30mph. It was basically a squall from a tropical storm with no lightening. Here at the house I am setting at 1.93" with a max rainfall rate of 7.29".

I hope this is all I experience from the tropics this year. A tropical squall without a tropical system is the best.

[Canebo]

Hey KatDaddy,
We just got back from Palm Beach as well. We saw the same thing and started packing up as well. We were probably dodging the same flying debris in the parking lot. From the looks of the radar, we should have another round this evening. I'm hoping for a dry slot for fireworks tonight.
It went from hot and sunny to black and squally in just a few minutes. I could not believe how many people were still headiing to Galveston through all of that heavy rain and wind.

Just back from the Moody Gardens in Galveston. Being a weather person I knew we had squall moving in from the GOM disturbance. You could see the TCUs About 15 minutes out I packed up and said we are outta here. It was moving N quickly. The gust front hit as we were just walking across the parking lot. Gusts of 35kts. We were peppered with Crepe Murdels and dust. The winds was a blowing and the scuds a racing. It was a hello from the tropics. On the way home we experienced very heavy tropical rains and gusting winds between 30-30mph. It was basically a squall from a tropical storm with no lightening. Here at the house I am setting at 1.93" with a max rainfall rate of 7.29".

I hope this is all I experience from the tropics this year. A tropical squall without a tropical system is the best.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Canebo what a small world. It was quite a tropical squall and we look to have more tropical rains today if it makes it onshore. Not good for the fireworks I recently bought a new mountain bike and have been riding through the the neighborhoods. Brittany Lakes is very nice. Magnolia Creek area is still growing as is Westover. Rain guage is setting at 2.04" for the day. Here is the link to the weatherstation. I added a webcam recently which gets updated every minute however you need to do a refresh to see the latest image.

http://www.flanakins.com

I hope we are spared this season.

[KWT]

There is some strong convection just off the Yucatan, I'd watch this region esp if it can remain in some form by Sunday because the left overs of the wave that brought invest 93L could well just give the extra bit of energy to kick something off IMO.

[TexWx]

No big deal here... (since shear seems to be a factor)
But you can see some spinning to the east of Padre Island/Brownsville

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... large=true

[LaBreeze]

Local mets are saying that it's nothing to worry about except a slightly higher rain chance - no development whatsoever.

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That is very intense convection. Is it moving into Mexico? If so
then tropical development is unlikely. But if not then it
still needs to be monitored.

[HURAKAN]

If there is any movement it looks to be northward.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Impressive, but it looks awfully close to land to have much of a chance.

[xironman]

While watching some of the Bertha models I noticed that the NAM (Yeah the NAM) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml pops a feature in the eastern gulf on Monday.

[lrak]

The last visible high resolution shots show some anticyclonic flow kinda over what looks like a cyclonic flow just off the coast NE of Tampico, any one see this? Pressures are about normal but not that high.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

[xironman]

Irak,

If you put the long and lat into the query string you can get the page to zoom into your area of interest http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23.8&lon=-96&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis otherwise you just end up with a post and no form so it goes to the default view.

[Sanibel]

I think that Texas business screams formation, but the surface center moved over Mexico.

Yesterday the wave axis was centered right where that disturbance is today.