Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Derek Ortt]

generator power,

if you'd look at the last few GFS runs, then you'd know why I think it is fantasy

[Derek Ortt]

from the previous thread...

to all... I am in a very foul mood today... received not the best of news... so please don't test my patience today

[Scorpion]

doesn't matter what time of year it is

in early July, conditions were FAVORABLE for development and a wave that became a major developed immediately after moving into the Atlantic

We do not have a wave remotely close to the intensity that Bertha was

as I said, I expect a weak, SAL affected TS out of this wave in about 3-5 days. I do not see something to be concerned about AT THIS TIME

Well the Euro is usually pretty conservative and it shows a pretty decent TC, not a weak TS

[HURAKAN]

Descent circulation.

[Meso]

18z GFS : 42 Hours

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 84 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

18z GFS at 96 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

18z GFS at 108 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

18z GFS at 126 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

18z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

18z GFS at 150 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif Just East of Lesser Antilles.

[cheezyWXguy]

does anyone have a link to the 18z vorticity loop, like the 12z(I think it was) one that derek posted earlier?

[SouthFloridawx]

does anyone have a link to the 18z vorticity loop, like the 12z(I think it was) one that derek posted earlier?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml

[Weatherfreak14]

138hrs... Watch Out Islands....

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 84 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

18z GFS at 96 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

18z GFS at 108 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

18z GFS at 126 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

18z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

18z GFS at 150 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif Just East of Lesser Antilles.

18z GFS at 162 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif Just east of Guadeloupe.

18z GFS at 204 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif It didnt moved thru the Lesser Antilles,now north of Puerto Rico.

18z GFS at 336 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif Close call for the East Coast of the U.S

[Mecklenburg]

looks pretty decent enough, how come this is not yet an invest?

[Weatherfreak14]

looks pretty decent enough, how come this is not yet an invest?

It will become an invest when the NHC feels it has what it takes to be one. patience. By the way it looks right now i think we will have an invest by tommrrow evening.

[Meso]

[JonathanBelles]

The low (TS/hurricane) gets very close to the US. Hopefully it doesnt get any closer.

[GeneratorPower]

The last few runs of the GFS haven't been all that dissimilar. They are showing favorable conditions for genesis off the coast of Africa. The fact that it isn't exactly the same low it develops each run means far less than the consistency of developing *something* on each run within a few degrees of the previous run. The reason for this is that the waves coming off Africa are very closely spaced right now.

That's all I feel like I need to say about this so I'm letting it drop now.

[cycloneye]

Here is the complete 18z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection continues to increase in the vicinity of the mid level circulation:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=400,pp=0

Pay attention to this one... my original thoughts remain on track. An impending INVEST classification may occur late tomorrow or the next day.

[SouthFloridawx]

Pretty big system according to GFS.

[cycloneye]

The latest pic at 6:30 PM EDT:

[ConvergenceZone]

looks pretty decent enough, how come this is not yet an invest?

Mecklenburg, don't worry about what's out there at the moment in about a week or so, perhaps 2, you'll have to much more to track...I enjoy it when it's not too busy, because when it gets really busy I can't pull myself away from these board, and I get absolutely nothing done(it's like an obsession)...so think of it as a blessing that's it's slow NOW....