Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ROCK]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=072

not much to look at with the EURO at 72hrs...

96hrs

in BOC I think...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=096

[otowntiger]

wow...only a 20% chance in 5 days....that doesn't seem confident. Not sure why RECON was even scheduled unless to cya....

12Z NAM at 84 hrs

TW approaching the Yucatan but not very organized. Very broad 1012MB...but its the NAM

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Seems the NHC isn't going to go with a higher chance of development based solely on model projections before the disturbance consolidates. I thought they would at least go 30-40% by now, though I think chances are greater than that of a named storm within 120 hrs.

wxman57: what are your (very early) thoughts on the eventual strength and track of this system?

Thanks!

[tolakram]

Euro vorticity shows this system buried deep in the BOC at 96 hours.

[wxman57]

wow...only a 20% chance in 5 days....that doesn't seem confident. Not sure why RECON was even scheduled unless to cya....

12Z NAM at 84 hrs

TW approaching the Yucatan but not very organized. Very broad 1012MB...but its the NAM

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Seems the NHC isn't going to go with a higher chance of development based solely on model projections before the disturbance consolidates. I thought they would at least go 30-40% by now, though I think chances are greater than that of a named storm within 120 hrs.

wxman57: what are your (very early) thoughts on the eventual strength and track of this system?

Thanks!

50-60% chance of development within 120 hrs. Landfall between SE LA and Apalachicola, FL Saturday PM to Sunday AM as a 65 mph TS.

[ROCK]

Euro vorticity shows this system buried deep in the BOC at 96 hours.

120hr also....so the EURO really hasnt moved from its runs....another GFS vs EURO battle....nice...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

A lot of convection firing in the carribean

[tolakram]

Euro vorticity shows this system buried deep in the BOC at 96 hours.

120hr also....so the EURO really hasnt moved from its runs....another GFS vs EURO battle....nice...

No battle IMO. The GFS spawns them better, the Euro tracks them better. Once we have a system I know I trust the euro a little more than the GFS, but the blend generally wins. Unfortunately I think it's a real possibility that improving a model in one area might make it worse in another. Starting to wonder if both the Euro and GFS are somewhat broken at the moment.

No hard data to back that up. It will be interesting to review this once the season is over.

[ROCK]

There is a pocket of 40knt shear sitting over over this mess.....helping cause lift....really should look at the AVN or RGB instead of rainbow. Rainbow always shows more than what is there. IMO

[ronjon]

Well we have with the 12z suite of globals the NAVGEM, CMC, and GFS now more or less on board with a western FL panhandle hit. latest CMC run has CAT 1 hurricane but this model is usally overdone. I like wxman57s forecast based on current model trends.

[Alyono]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

[ronjon]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

A lot of convection firing in the carribean

The wave near 72W will merge with the mass off SA near 76W as the trade winds slow in the western caribbean. The GFS spins up organized vorticity in 60 hrs so will should see it gradually come together over the next 2 days. Nice anticyclone progged by GFS near the Yuc in 84 hrs.

[ROCK]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

I dont understand it myself and I have a prelaw degree....

80% of non-development in 5 days but yet lets task RECON just in case.

[RL3AO]

Thats all it is though is a tasking. Recon doesn't have to go, but they have it planned in case it is needed. I say its good planning and not something to criticize.

[RL3AO]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

Good point. I'm still adjusting my brain to the 5 day TWO. This will pretty much be done in five days.

[Rgv20]

Euro vorticity shows this system buried deep in the BOC at 96 hours.

Looks like the 12zUKMET is in the same boat as the Euro...Has it in Belize at 72hrs.



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[wxman57]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

Good point. I'm still adjusting my brain to the 5 day TWO. This will pretty much be done in five days.

We've been producing a 5-day TDO for over 30 years in the private sector. Not sure what the big deal is as far as the NHC finally jumping aboard. Can't be afraid to make a commitment to development beyond 48hrs or your long-range forecasts will not verify well.

[Alyono]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

Good point. I'm still adjusting my brain to the 5 day TWO. This will pretty much be done in five days.

If I were a betting man, I'd be assigning much higher odds of development. Not sure what NHC is seeing here

[RL3AO]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

Good point. I'm still adjusting my brain to the 5 day TWO. This will pretty much be done in five days.

If I were a betting man, I'd be assigning much higher odds of development. Not sure what NHC is seeing here

Maybe they follow JB on twitter.

[Alyono]

Maybe they follow JB on twitter.

If they are using the ECMWF to predict genesis, I'd suggest they all be entenced to do a case study as to how and why the EC has FAILED on nearly every single world wide TC this year at predicting genesis. Why use the model that missed both major typhoons and everything else in the deep tropics?

[gulf701]

[size=85]Tallahassee NWS made mention of the models in their 215 PM Local Discussion.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2013

.[size=85]LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
-- Changed Discussion --
A long wave trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf Coast early in the period as a reinforcing short wave
in the northern plains drops into the trough, resulting in a closed
low over the Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday. This low
gradually fills and weakens, leaving behind a weak trough for early
next week with an axis still to our west.[/size]
The end result is a prolonged period of rain for the southeast with
periods of heavy rain likely. Total rainfall from the GFS indicates
areas of rain up to 10 inches across the FL panhandle through
Monday, due in part to its development of a tropical cyclone in the
gulf which it brings into the FL panhandle Saturday. The Canadian
also generates a tropical system similar to the GFS, however the
ECWMF does not generate a tropical system and therefore depicts
rainfall totals through Monday of about 5 inches.

Confidence of a period of heavy rain is high, and if the
GFS-advertised tropical system does develop then local rainfall
amounts could be double or triple the current WPC 5.5" totals.

OUCH! More rain on top of July's totals.[/size]