Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[toad strangler]

Splits PR in half at 222 hours

[TheStormExpert]

Right over Hispaniola @240hrs.

[SFLcane]

weakness there likely to recurve near SE will be close though. Luis my fiend I suggest you keep tabs on this one.

[toad strangler]

Right through the heart of the cheese grater

[SFLcane]

Through the spine maybe 99L 2? lol

edit: then into cuba Not much would be left.

[LarryWx]

Note something very important that Luis mentioned: the trend has been for this pouch to come off Africa and cross the longitude of the CV's lower and lower over the last 24 hours of runs. On the 0Z GFS run of just 24 hours ago, it was to the north of the CV's near 19N. On the new 0Z run, it is coming across the CV's near 16.5 N or nearly 150 miles south. We still have another 10 runs or so before it even emerges from Africa. If it were to get down to below 15N when crossing the CV's, then it would be down to where several CV H's made it to 75W. I'm educatedly guessing that this will come down even further based on Pouch 25L's southern low being all of the way down to near 11N when it was near 1E. The models have been keying on the northern extension of this well north of the convection over Africa, which didn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

The ominous further south trend near the CV's continues as Luis continues to tell us. Now (Sunday 8/28 12Z GFS) it is near 16N or ~200 miles south of yesterday's 0Z GFS, when it was near 19N at the CV islands. We are getting further and further south from 19N, a latitude that almost always has meant a recurve east of the Caribbean/US. This means the threat to land is likely increasing.

[cycloneye]

Hispanola tears it apart.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like Georges 2.0. Hits PR and plows through Hispanola


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[SFLcane]

Caribbean cruiser vibe here or into shredder

[TheStormExpert]

Through the spine maybe 99L 2? lol

edit: then into cuba Not much would be left.

Yeah I smell a 99L replay with this wave if the 12z GFS is an indicator of anything with delaying development until approaching the Eastern Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

Caribbean cruiser vibe here or into shredder

That is the vibe I have (Caribbean Cruiser) looking at 500mb maps as stated earlier today. It's just a vibe though. Splitting the shredder chain like that is needle in a haystack type stuff this far out.

[WeatherEmperor]

From the islands to Florida...the track is almosy identical to Georges 1998. Hits the Keys at 324hrs


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[cycloneye]

Is not over.Somehow does this.

[TheStormExpert]

Landfall in the FL Big Bend region @384hrs.

[cycloneye]

Almost like Charley.

[toad strangler]

This is complete fantasy land stuff. Spend days splitting the shredder chain 50/50 to emerge even stronger than it went in?

NO LOL

[Siker]

Through the spine maybe 99L 2? lol

edit: then into cuba Not much would be left.

Yeah I smell a 99L replay with this wave if the 12z GFS is an indicator of anything with delaying development until approaching the Eastern Caribbean.

There's really no comparison for this vs. 99L in terms of model support. This has unanimous support; 99L did not. This will be passing through under a very favorable Kelvin Wave; 99L did not. It's understandable to be cautious after 99L but...

[TheStormExpert]

Almost like Charley.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_52.png

Only worse and much larger in size.

[CFLHurricane]

I'm not too worried, especially considering the models are still all the way in fantasyland.

[weatherwindow]

This is complete fantasy land stuff. Spend days splitting the shredder chain 50/50 to emerge even stronger than it went in?

NO LOL

Good afternoon, Luis et al... agreed it is certainly long range but let's not dismiss this solution out of hand. As I'm sure you remember George's followed a virtually identical track and did survive Hispaniola and Cuba and did landfall the Lower Keys as a cat 2. I had a ringside seat on Lower Sugarloaf Key. A similar track while unlikely remains a possibility... Greetings from Cayo Hueso...Rich