Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Hurricaneman]

Just a thought but..... how about TWO tropical systems to eventually form out of this whole Caribbean wave/ITCZ Gyre?

First, one smaller and tighter vorticity center that achieves strong T.S. strength and progresses north from the NW Caribbean to potentially impact far W. Florida Panhandle to Louisiana area, with other larger predominant low moving West and into the BOC where it reaches modest T.S. intensity prior to NE Mexico landfall?

Yeah, possible. I was guessing at that on Wednesday night as possibly the reason the models were so divergent. At the same time, monsoonal gyres can launch several developments. There was one around the Caribbean a few (several?) years back that launched like 3 or 4 different systems.

2005 had that with an October monsoon gyre with Wilma, Alpha and Beta but can't rule out 2 systems with this gyre

[tropicwatch]

In the last couple of frames it looks like a broad rotation starting northeast of Honduras. Or, it could just be me.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10&zoom=4

There is also a buoy in that area currently reporting:

16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W)
Southeast winds at 11.17 kts
Pressure 1012.8mb
Water temp 83.1 degrees

[South Texas Storms]

12z UKMET takes it near Galveston. Starts out much more defined this run near the Yucatan, and then looks to weaken it as it hits Texas.

[PTrackerLA]

Two systems out of this monsoonal gyre would be wild but I wouldn't rule it out. Along with possibly Brett in the Atlantic, that would have to be some sort of record start to the season. Buckle up folks!

[Macrocane]

Yeah, possible. I was guessing at that on Wednesday night as possibly the reason the models were so divergent. At the same time, monsoonal gyres can launch several developments. There was one around the Caribbean a few (several?) years back that launched like 3 or 4 different systems.

Here's a look at the parallel ECMWF @ 96 hours from Ryan Maue's twitter. The resolution on that is pretty badass and shows that the EC still thinks this will be a very large circulation.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/875 ... gr%5Etweet

In 2010, Matthew and Nicole formed from a broad monsoon gyre in the Caribbean.

[ronyan]

Two systems out of this monsoonal gyre would be wild but I wouldn't rule it out. Along with possibly Brett in the Atlantic, that would have to be some sort of record start to the season. Buckle up folks!

The gulf is large enough to accommodate two of course, but I don't know how likely that is (or even if we have a method for gauging how likely that is). I'm sticking on it getting caught under the ridge and going into MX.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, one thing is for sure, it shouldn't take very long to find out where the system, or systems head. In my specific area just to the east of Pensacola, we don't need anymore rain for sure, though I'm sure some places along the GC do.

[cycloneye]

Recon planned for Monday.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 19/1800Z.

[gatorcane]

In the last couple of frames it looks like a broad rotation starting northeast of Honduras. Or, it could just be me.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10&zoom=4

Also looks like some spin more NE around 16N, 79W. I think we are going to see a lot of spins over the next couple of days in this gyre so where/if one can consolidate will help the models better determine the outcome. The spin more NE is probably associated with the tropical wave that was heading through the Caribbean this week and is what the GFS/CMC models have been trying to develop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[ROCK]

Got one spin near Puerto Lampara and another below near The island of San Andres. 2 lows = longer to consolidate and one big mess until then.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather has formed over the western
Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.
Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this
system while it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula this weekend and into the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[tropicwatch]

Finally starting to zero in on an area with disturbed weather, yeah.

[jlauderdal]

Recon planned for Monday.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 19/1800Z.

gulf is a big place, hopefully they nail down some coordinates prior to liftoff

[BobHarlem]

GFS/Euro even more split than before at 12Z, GFS now shows development late Monday in the NE Gulf then moving in near Panama City, (GFS Para just is a bit stronger, but same area/timing)

Euro still west.

[cycloneye]

Is a very large circle.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro appears to be heading to northern Mexico / deep south Texas in about 5 days.

[weathaguyry]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/875770675050549248

[stormlover2013]

When does euro parallel run?

[chaser1]

Wow, that link showed a pretty awesome resolution!! At that 96 hr. point, there still looks to be some upper westerly influence impacting the system from wrapping around to the NW and west side; then again, all part of a big system consolidating. If this system actually gains enough latitude, than i'd be less suspicious of the overall gyre actually spinning off a separate (smaller) system as well. Seems plausible that we might have two simultaneously developing T.S. on our hand. Cant even think how many times that occurred in June before.

[chaser1]

In the last couple of frames it looks like a broad rotation starting northeast of Honduras. Or, it could just be me.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10&zoom=4

Also looks like some spin more NE around 16N, 79W. I think we are going to see a lot of spins over the next couple of days in this gyre so where/if one can consolidate will help the models better determine the outcome. The spin more NE is probably associated with the tropical wave that was heading through the Caribbean this week and is what the GFS/CMC models have been trying to develop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yep, exactly where I was kind of amusingly thinking a second "spin-off" system might originate and move NNW while the primary gyre kind of slowly develops and moves WNW'ward.