Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Hurricaneman]

With that ridge the models are showing i would not be surprised if this ends up as far west abs Texas or boc.

Not sure what the Euro is thinking

I mean not for nothin but the 12z CMC is signaling W as well.

the only reason the models have had east solutions is because of the high shear which was forcing the convection and thus the system to move to the north then once north of the islands the shear relaxes and it turns west again. the ridge is strong.


now the models are showing less shear so that wont happen. and we see the wnw to nw motion.

I’ll say this, if this misses the Yucatan someone on the gulf coast is going to have real problems, even the stronger models have to be considered with the lower shear and warmer than normal GOM temps

[toad strangler]

12z CMC shifts ridging to the E and sends a Cat 2 or so into the FL panhandle

I KNOW.... IT's THE CMC

[SFLcane]

Met. Joe Bastardi expects the system to move into The Bahamas in a few days according to his daily summary on weatherbell.com.

How is this? With a big ridge overhead not going anywhere. The new gfs has been rather persistent suggesting just that

[stormlover2013]

Still tons of time guys, we will keep seeing the back and forth..

[ronjon]

Met. Joe Bastardi expects the system to move into The Bahamas in a few days according to his daily summary on weatherbell.com.

How is this? With a big ridge overhead not going anywhere. The new gfs has been rather persistent suggesting just that

12z ICON northward into the Bahamas - think it depends how far east the actual low pressure develops. Most models have a general north or NW track from that point forward.

[ronjon]

Met. Joe Bastardi expects the system to move into The Bahamas in a few days according to his daily summary on weatherbell.com.

How is this? With a big ridge overhead not going anywhere. The new gfs has been rather persistent suggesting just that

12z ICON northward into the Bahamas - think it depends how far east the actual low pressure develops. Most models have a general north or NW track from that point forward. European leaning that way as well

[gatorcane]

Met. Joe Bastardi expects the system to move into The Bahamas in a few days according to his daily summary on weatherbell.com.

How is this? With a big ridge overhead not going anywhere. The new gfs has been rather persistent suggesting just that

The synoptic setup is incredibly complex as shown by the huge spread in the ensembles. You have a monsoon gyre interacting with an upper-level feature which spins off from Leslie not to mention center reformations due to strong westerly shear. Just about every scenario is still on the table.

[Nimbus]

The current convection mid Caribbean has some spin at the mid levels.
That area appears to be lifting to the north in response to the ULL further west.
Bahamas seem like a likely destination for that mess, but there will be a building Bermuda high.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z FV3 is significantly further west vs its earlier runs and looks to be headed for Gulf rather than Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

I’d take the icon mostly sunny breezy wx across sfl

[SFLcane]

New GFS suggesting just that Lol buried in the boc without much development.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12Z FV3 is significantly further west vs its earlier runs and looks to be headed for Gulf rather than Bahamas.[/quote

Lol and there it is buried in the boc as I was suggesting

well yeah the FV3 is a little wacky that solution is not likely. but a steady nw motion is. once the models reduced the shear the tracks east of florida have stopped.

[GCANE]

Very obvious spin starting on the cloud deck.

[Aric Dunn]

We have a very solid llc developing pretty quick near San Andres island.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1047174686218625024

[chris_fit]

We have a very solid llc developing pretty quick near San Andres island.

Maybe I'm blind but I dont see any spin near San Andres

[Aric Dunn]

We have a very solid llc developing pretty quick near San Andres island.

Maybe I'm blind but I dont see any spin near San Andres

[Evil Jeremy]

Shot in the dark, 10%/30% at 2pm. Keeping an eye on this, but not concerned.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting situation. There is low level turning in the SW Caribbean, and the impressive mid level disturbance to the NE. Perhaps the low level system new San Andres is the "gyre" in its formative stages, and the convective mass E of Jamaica (Kirk) is one of the many vortices that this gyre was going to spin off as advertised by models for days now... I might be wrong, but it seems to fit the pattern.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
late this week and this weekend while the low drifts generally
northward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.