Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[SootyTern]

06z GFS trends even further west, now in the NW Caribbean in 10 days.

Ends with a pretty nasty hit on Tampa Sept 25

[toad strangler]

06z GFS trends even further west, now in the NW Caribbean in 10 days.

Ends with a pretty nasty hit on Tampa Sept 25

Yeah Wilma 2.0
Meanwhile Legacy with essentially Nada
Euro with a hurricane in the S Bahamas

Interesting but should this genesis as modeled everything hinges on the GA's

[SFLcane]

Long range overnight EURO with a strengthening hurricane in the SE Bahamas.

[toad strangler]

Long range overnight EURO with a strengthening hurricane in the SE Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/5uxyK4i.png

That would be SW Bahamas but what's a hundred or so miles between friends?

[ava_ati]

Really wondering if the GFS and Euro are just way too late with its development, they both don't develop until it is past the Leeward islands. Just a thought, it wouldn't be the first time this season the models were behind on development.

[Kazmit]

Strange how in the past few years there haven't been many storms that simply recurved in the Western Atlantic without some weird ridging setup preventing it from happening.

[TheStormExpert]

Really wondering if the GFS and Euro are just way too late with its development, they both don't develop until it is past the Leeward islands. Just a thought, it wouldn't be the first time this season the models were behind on development.

What do you mean by behind? The Tropical Atlantic has been dead this season so far and that doesn’t look to change with this one. Development if any will be delayed until it’s near the Greater Antilles and or Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

This the thread II'm following now....Nothing will become of 94L as models suggest.......But I think this one will end up being a big one, wherever it decides to go.
On a side note, it's hard to believe that we are in the middle of September, and we are only up to the "E" storm so far........ Only 4 storms from June to the middle of September.

[Florida1118]

This the thread II'm following now....Nothing will become of 94L as models suggest.......But I think this one will end up being a big one, wherever it decides to go.
On a side note, it's hard to believe that we are in the middle of September, and we are only up to the "E" storm so far........ Only 4 storms from June to the middle of September.

Not sure where you're looking, but the next storm is Humberto...Fernand and Gabrielle already formed.

[chris_fit]

This the thread II'm following now....Nothing will become of 94L as models suggest.......But I think this one will end up being a big one, wherever it decides to go.
On a side note, it's hard to believe that we are in the middle of September, and we are only up to the "E" storm so far........ Only 4 storms from June to the middle of September.

Where you've been last 2 weeks?

[plasticup]

This the thread II'm following now....Nothing will become of 94L as models suggest.......But I think this one will end up being a big one, wherever it decides to go.
On a side note, it's hard to believe that we are in the middle of September, and we are only up to the "E" storm so far........ Only 4 storms from June to the middle of September.

We have had Tropical Storm Erin, Tropical Storm Fernand (>$350 million in damages...), and Tropical Storm Gabrielle. But they were all short-lived and got overwhelmed in the news cycle by the monster that was Hurricane Dorian.

[plasticup]

This gets your attention:

[chris_fit]

This gets your attention:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019091106/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_58.png

If that were to ever play out, would be probably the costliest hurricane in history. Thankfully, it's in the 300+ hour range... in other words.... Probably won't be anything like this.

[toad strangler]

This gets your attention:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019091106/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_58.png

I try not to look at anything past 240 hours. And that's stretching too

[cycloneye]

This gets your attention:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019091106/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_58.png

I try not to look at anything past 240 hours. And that's stretching too

Up to 5 days is the best to look at the models.

[ConvergenceZone]

This the thread II'm following now....Nothing will become of 94L as models suggest.......But I think this one will end up being a big one, wherever it decides to go.
On a side note, it's hard to believe that we are in the middle of September, and we are only up to the "E" storm so far........ Only 4 storms from June to the middle of September.

Not sure where you're looking, but the next storm is Humberto...Fernand and Gabrielle already formed.

oops my bad! and yea I've been on vacation the last few weeks, and haven't checked the tropics much at all, again, my bad..........

[ava_ati]

Really wondering if the GFS and Euro are just way too late with its development, they both don't develop until it is past the Leeward islands. Just a thought, it wouldn't be the first time this season the models were behind on development.

What do you mean by behind? The Tropical Atlantic has been dead this season so far and that doesn’t look to change with this one. Development if any will be delayed until it’s near the Greater Antilles and or Caribbean.

I agree that things have been slow but in the long range the models have been having a hard time locking onto storm formation, go back and look at the first few pages of the Dorian models page . In the long range (+5 days) before genesis.

This post from Dorian sticks out in my head viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120454&start=20#p2756728

[TallyTracker]

The only thing the longer range models are remotely good at is looking at large-scale conditions. Specific storm intensities and tracks are garbage two weeks out. What the GFS and Euro show me is that conditions should be favorable for a hurricane in the Caribbean and Bahamas some time within the next two weeks.

[Kazmit]

The only thing the longer range models are remotely good at is looking at large-scale conditions. Specific storm intensities and tracks are garbage two weeks out. What the GFS and Euro show me is that conditions should be favorable for a hurricane in the Caribbean and Bahamas some time within the next two weeks.

Except like you said, we don't even know if it will be anywhere near those areas two weeks from now. It won't matter if conditions are favorable there if the storm is recurving out to sea. We can hope that is the case...

[toad strangler]

The only thing the longer range models are remotely good at is looking at large-scale conditions. Specific storm intensities and tracks are garbage two weeks out. What the GFS and Euro show me is that conditions should be favorable for a hurricane in the Caribbean and Bahamas some time within the next two weeks.

Those are pretty specific areas which would favor a general track. I'd say there is a good signal for a storm and leave it at that. Everyone from Mexico to New England to the wide open N Atlantic is fair game.