TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[HurricaneHunter914]

I say TS by the 11 AM Advisory based on that picture.

[AJC3]

You might want to look at these two McIDAS imags I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby10.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby11.gif

There's an "interesting" feature near the center of this depression that looks very much like an eye. I thought it was just an overshooting top so I zoomed in on debby11.gif. That's definitely the center, near 13.3N/25.8W. Seems to be an indentation in the cloud tops and not an overshooting top.

I remember back in the very busy 1995 season that a storm formed off Africa which the NHC was ignoring because of Opal or Luis. They could no longer ignore it when it developed what I quote them as saying "a cloud-free central area" -- i.e., an eye. I'll want to study a few more image, but my initial impression is that it has the appearance of an eye, at the very least. QuikSCAT doesn't show any winds near hurricane force, though. Could just be a transient break in the convection.

I'd be interested in seeing a time lapse of this to see if there's any spatial/temporal continuity in the feature.

[KWT]

wow, it really does look like an eye doesn't it, mind you I remember seeing a invest last year that had the exact same sort of thing, so I wouldn't read too much into that!
I'll see if I can find the image again.

Despite this i'm almost certain that this is a tropical storm, its certainly one of the best looking depressions I've seen in recent years and it should be upgraded for the 11am update. I do think mind you that the center is probably nearby that, as its really evident near the center. IF tghat is a breif eye though its one of the weakest systems with an eye I've ever seen, even if the NHC has under-done this system

[wxman57]

It almost looks like a belly button

Thanks, I'll call it a "belly button" on my next advisory.

[wxman57]

One rain contaminated 35 kt wind bard is not enoughto do an upgrade on.

I thought only black barbs where rain contaminated.

You are correct. Maybe my eyes are bad, but I didn't find any 35 kt wind barbs. I am not an expert, but I doubt they would upgrade based on one 35 kt wind barb, especially as far out in the Atlantic as it is. And yes I do know there are TS Warnings for the CV Islands.

By the way, that QuikSCAT image you're looking at is from early yesterday afternoon. There was no overnight pass that got TD 4.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 221225
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
B. 22/1131Z (69)
C. 13.1N/5
D. 26.0W/8
E. SIX/MET-8
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: S0.6/12HRS -22/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: N/A

CAPUTO



Air Force sat estimates.

[Thunder44]

One rain contaminated 35 kt wind bard is not enoughto do an upgrade on.

I thought only black barbs where rain contaminated.

You are correct. Maybe my eyes are bad, but I didn't find any 35 kt wind barbs. I am not an expert, but I doubt they would upgrade based on one 35 kt wind barb, especially as far out in the Atlantic as it is. And yes I do know there are TS Warnings for the CV Islands.

By the way, that QuikSCAT image you're looking at is from early yesterday afternoon. There was no overnight pass that got TD 4.

On NRL it says that pass was made on 8/22/06 7:58 UTC time. That around 4am this morning.

[wxman57]

The more I look a tthe images I posted, the more I see what appears to be an optical illusion. I think it IS an overshooting top well to the southwest of the actual center. I place the center near 13.5N/25.4W rather than 13.3N/25.8W (the image anomaly spot).

[Thunder44]

Floater 1 is now on TD 4. But you can only see 1/4 of it now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Here's another shot that I annotated:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby11a.gif

The center is northwest of the "belly button" (which now looks like an "outie".

[AJC3]

New QS pass just posted

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 2_04as.png

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 1200 060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 25.4W 14.8N 27.4W 16.2N 29.5W 17.6N 31.9W
BAMM 13.3N 25.4W 15.2N 27.5W 17.0N 30.0W 18.7N 32.7W
A98E 13.3N 25.4W 14.3N 28.4W 15.2N 31.2W 16.5N 33.9W
LBAR 13.3N 25.4W 14.7N 27.9W 16.0N 30.5W 17.3N 33.2W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 1200 060825 1200 060826 1200 060827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 34.4W 21.7N 39.8W 24.8N 44.3W 28.4N 45.5W
BAMM 20.3N 35.7W 23.4N 41.9W 26.5N 47.4W 29.9N 48.9W
A98E 18.0N 36.5W 21.0N 42.2W 24.4N 47.4W 29.0N 49.2W
LBAR 18.4N 36.1W 21.0N 41.8W 24.8N 47.8W 28.8N 49.2W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 54KTS 59KTS 57KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 25.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 22.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 20.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

New QS pass just posted

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 2_04as.png

That's the same that I showed before.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why are they holding it as a tropical depression? The center is mostly under the deep convection. In it has improved alot since last night.

[AJC3]

New QS pass just posted

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 2_04as.png

That's the same that I showed before.

Page showed up blank for me up until about 5 minutes ago. Must have been my cache. My bad.

[storms in NC]

Out of all the models which one does the best?

[Thunder44]

Dvorak T number estimates show a 35kt TS now.

22/1130 UTC 13.6N 25.5W T2.5/2.5 04L

[cycloneye]

Why are they holding it as a tropical depression? The center is mostly under the deep convection. In it has improved alot since last night.

Well Matt,they have their reasons and will be known at the 11 AM discussion so let's wait until then ans see their reasoning.

[cycloneye]

Dvorak T number estimates show a 35kt TS now.

22/1130 UTC 13.6N 25.5W T2.5/2.5 04L

But the models held to TD.