TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

StormWarning1 · #261 Postby **StormWarning1** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:47 pm

The way these posts about the size of Florence are going I expect most of the Earth will be under a Hurricane warning in a few days.

#262 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:52 pm

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN
BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED
PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS.

Where is the Trough located currently? I would like to track and watch it.

skufful · #263 Postby **skufful** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:57 pm

StormWarning1 wrote:The way these posts about the size of Florence are going I expect most of the Earth will be under a Hurricane warning in a few days.

I was going to make a smart ass response to your post, but I looked at the previous page, and I understand your sarcasm.

cpdaman · #264 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:05 pm

in regards to comparisons in storms size

from the NHC archive katrina at it's largest point i could find in archives had

tropical storm force winds extending up to 200 miles from center (or from about 90 miles out from center to about 200 miles out)

hurricane force winds up to 90 miles out from center

flo has
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER (obviously from center to 260 miles out since there are no hurricane force winds, yet

and is forecast per NHC to GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER.

WOW

ronjon · #265 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:07 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN
BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED
PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS.

Where is the Trough located currently? I would like to track and watch it.

SFW, the 500 mb loop from the latest GFS - the model predicts weakness in the atlantic ridge which allows the storm to gain enough latitude to be captured by the trough swinging eastward from the Great Lakes in 4-5 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

AussieMark · #266 Postby **AussieMark** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:07 pm

does anyone know how big Hurricanes like Carla or Betsy got

I have read they got big

Sanibel · #267 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:08 pm

Black IR while sheared.

Can't find center any more.

ULL creeping WSW in front of it.

Stratosphere747 · #268 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:09 pm

AussieMark wrote:does anyone know how big Hurricanes like Carla or Betsy got

I have read they got big

57 has a great chart...Hopefully he will share again as I've lost the link..

#269 Postby **Bailey1777** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:12 pm

Check this out sent to me by Stratosphere747.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tip.htm

pgoss11 · #270 Postby **pgoss11** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:14 pm

That's freakin' frightening

Website · #271 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:15 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Check this out sent to me by Stratosphere747.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/tip.htm

#272 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:20 pm

I think the point should be emphasized that the models are forecasting that Florence has the potential to become one of the largest Cyclones ever in the Atlantic Basin. I don't believe any of our pro mets on here have come right out and said that was definately going to happen. With that said, she definately has some size to her this evening. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds over the next few days.

Scorpion · #273 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:21 pm

I wonder, if this became so huge, couldn't it influence the environment far more than the models realize?

Extremeweatherguy · #274 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:22 pm

wow. If Tip hit Florida, I could still be feeling effects over here in TX. That is pretty amazing.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #275 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:22 pm

This system has changed little through out today...With Cimss showing the center is exposed as much as earlier today. With Sab=2.5=35 knots, Cimss=2.6 or 35 to 37 knots. Airforce with the 3.5 must think that this center is under that deep convection. Its not under that convection but its exposed....Looking at satellite shows still 20+ knots of shear blowing all the convection to the east. I say more inline with 40 knots.

#276 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:24 pm

tonight could enlarge tje storm even more! you all know how cranky these things can get over night!

#277 Postby **Bailey1777** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:26 pm

At what point in time will this system be in the most favorable environment it will probably see?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #278 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:28 pm

People the cmc loves to blow storms up like that...It won't happen, most likely if it becomes a hurricane like the nhc says...Maybe as big as Floyd,Katrina. But no way as big as the cmc or tip. That is not going to happen.

Scorpion · #279 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:People the cmc loves to blow storms up like that...It won't happen, most likely if it becomes a hurricane like the nhc says...Maybe as big as Floyd,Katrina. But no way as big as the cmc or tip. That is not going to happen.

MM5 also shows this.

Stratosphere747 · #280 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:29 pm

The Tip introduction is a bit premature....

Flo IMO, will no way get near the windfield of Tip, not even close!

She is having enough trouble as it is...

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

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