Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

Well I can say one thing for sure she is getting to be a big lady. See her grow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[Toadstool]

Well I can say one thing for sure she is getting to be a big lady. See her grow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

Wow, that is a strong strong storm...

[Damar91]

Ok, here's a stupid question. Lane's moisture will be moving in the general direction of the trough of low pressure. Could that interaction have any effect on the trough itself, therefore effecting Helene. Stupid question, I know but I was just curious. Thanks!

[WeatherTracker]

looks nice...eyewall trying to form

[terstorm1012]

Will be interesting to see what comes out of the 18z (2pmEDT) models...I still stand by my guess that she won't make it to 60W but after reading what Derek said about very strong troughs and knowing we're supposed to drop 20-30 degrees in temperature this week coming....yeah I do have some concerns. But I'm stickin with recurve at 60 west.

[WeatherTracker]

Will be interesting to see what comes out of the 18z (2pmEDT) models...I still stand by my guess that she won't make it to 60W but after reading what Derek said about very strong troughs and knowing we're supposed to drop 20-30 degrees in temperature this week coming....yeah I do have some concerns. But I'm stickin with recurve at 60 west.

where can i get the latest models?

[WeatherTracker]

eye is visible on the rainbow sat.... it is that little hole to the east of the convection blow-up....

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 1800 060917 0600 060917 1800 060918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 45.9W 20.0N 47.6W 21.1N 49.0W 22.1N 50.3W
BAMM 19.1N 45.9W 20.2N 47.7W 21.5N 49.2W 22.4N 50.7W
A98E 19.1N 45.9W 20.4N 47.7W 21.8N 49.5W 23.1N 51.3W
LBAR 19.1N 45.9W 20.1N 47.4W 21.3N 48.8W 22.2N 50.1W
SHIP 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS 79KTS
DSHP 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 1800 060919 1800 060920 1800 060921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 51.6W 23.2N 54.9W 24.7N 58.3W 27.1N 60.7W
BAMM 23.2N 52.3W 23.3N 56.3W 23.8N 60.2W 24.6N 61.5W
A98E 23.8N 53.7W 26.2N 57.9W 26.2N 61.8W 24.8N 64.5W
LBAR 23.1N 51.7W 24.0N 55.6W 25.2N 59.4W 27.5N 61.0W
SHIP 81KTS 80KTS 74KTS 73KTS
DSHP 81KTS 80KTS 74KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 42.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

18:00z Models.terstorm1012 they dont pass it more than 61 west as I dont count the A98E.

[WeatherTracker]

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 1800 060917 0600 060917 1800 060918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 45.9W 20.0N 47.6W 21.1N 49.0W 22.1N 50.3W
BAMM 19.1N 45.9W 20.2N 47.7W 21.5N 49.2W 22.4N 50.7W
A98E 19.1N 45.9W 20.4N 47.7W 21.8N 49.5W 23.1N 51.3W
LBAR 19.1N 45.9W 20.1N 47.4W 21.3N 48.8W 22.2N 50.1W
SHIP 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS 79KTS
DSHP 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 1800 060919 1800 060920 1800 060921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 51.6W 23.2N 54.9W 24.7N 58.3W 27.1N 60.7W
BAMM 23.2N 52.3W 23.3N 56.3W 23.8N 60.2W 24.6N 61.5W
A98E 23.8N 53.7W 26.2N 57.9W 26.2N 61.8W 24.8N 64.5W
LBAR 23.1N 51.7W 24.0N 55.6W 25.2N 59.4W 27.5N 61.0W
SHIP 81KTS 80KTS 74KTS 73KTS
DSHP 81KTS 80KTS 74KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 44.2W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 42.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

18:00z Models.terstorm1012 they dont pass it more than 61 west as I dont count the A98E.

can you provide a link to this please? Thank you

[WeatherTracker]

Latest models(18z) from Wunderground

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

Link to models.

[WeatherTracker]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/?C=M;O=D

Link to models.

thanks

[hial2]

[quote="cycloneye"] HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916

18:00z Models.terstorm1012 they dont pass it more than 61 west as I dont count the A98E.[/quote

I remember yesterday @ this time that no model took it past 43 west..I question the reliabality/accuracy of models when they are off by such a wide margin in a short amount of time...IMO,we place too much emphasis on them..

[storms in NC]

Latest models(18z) from Wunderground

well that is 2 out of 2 cause I don't look at the bam's so they are even. so split it down the middle.LOL

[WeatherTracker]

I really dont know what model to look at....Anything could change in a matter of 1 or 2 model runs....

[Buck]

They're just about all over the place, aren't they?

[WeatherTracker]

check out the AVNO model...Scary

[WeatherTracker]

[linkerweather]

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916

18:00z Models.terstorm1012 they dont pass it more than 61 west as I dont count the A98E.[/quote

I remember yesterday @ this time that no model took it past 43 west..I question the reliabality/accuracy of models when they are off by such a wide margin in a short amount of time...IMO,we place too much emphasis on them..

Not past 43 W?

Here is yesterdays 1200z

TROPICAL STORM HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 0000 060915 1200 060916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 36.0W 13.8N 38.3W 14.7N 40.1W 16.2N 41.3W
BAMM 13.3N 36.0W 14.0N 38.3W 15.0N 40.2W 16.5N 41.5W
A98E 13.3N 36.0W 13.5N 40.0W 13.2N 43.5W 12.8N 46.3W
LBAR 13.3N 36.0W 13.9N 39.3W 14.7N 42.5W 15.4N 45.4W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200 060919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 42.2W 20.5N 43.6W 23.7N 45.6W 27.5N 48.1W
BAMM 18.3N 42.5W 21.2N 45.2W 23.9N 49.2W 25.4N 52.4W
A98E 12.7N 48.3W 13.2N 51.5W 14.0N 53.7W 15.6N 55.3W
LBAR 16.2N 47.8W 17.8N 51.2W 19.0N 52.7W 20.7N 53.8W
SHIP 80KTS 92KTS 92KTS 92KTS
DSHP 80KTS 92KTS 92KTS 92KTS


Went to 55 W

HERE IS 00z

TROPICAL STORM HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060916 0000 060916 1200 060917 0000 060917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 43.3W 17.9N 44.9W 18.8N 46.2W 19.5N 47.4W
BAMM 16.9N 43.3W 18.1N 45.0W 19.2N 46.4W 19.9N 48.0W
A98E 16.9N 43.3W 18.2N 45.8W 19.2N 48.0W 20.0N 49.9W
LBAR 16.9N 43.3W 18.3N 45.3W 19.2N 46.9W 19.9N 48.4W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 80KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060918 0000 060919 0000 060920 0000 060921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 48.5W 21.9N 50.3W 23.5N 52.8W 26.1N 55.2W
BAMM 20.6N 49.4W 21.6N 51.3W 22.6N 53.4W 24.7N 54.9W
A98E 20.1N 52.0W 19.4N 56.2W 16.8N 60.1W 13.8N 62.4W
LBAR 20.4N 49.9W 21.0N 53.0W 21.4N 56.6W 21.5N 59.1W
SHIP 84KTS 87KTS 89KTS 89KTS
DSHP 84KTS 87KTS 89KTS 89KTS

A98E (not reliable) took it to 62.4W

[ronjon]

Seems the synoptics are in a state of flux in the next 5-7 days. The trough off the east coast that the GFDL, CMC, & UKMET key on to erode the atlantic ridge and lift Helene out north to sea may not be that strong and may move out without capturing Helene. Todays 06 & 12Z GFS runs reflect this scenario along with the 12Z NOGAPS. The GFS and NOGAPs lift out the trough and bring strong ridging filling in north of the storm which causes a stair step motion back to the west south of or near Bermuda. In the GFS case, it brings Helene all the way to 68W next Sunday (8 days out!) prior to a major front/trough sweeping her north up to Newfoundland. Anything 8 days out is really questionable - that being said I think the GFS is too progressive with this front - from the HPC this afternoon:

STRENGTHENING CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
BUILDING ERN PAC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT IN SUPPORTING
AMPLIFICATION OF A WRN CONUS TROF.

AFTN PRELIMS WILL STAY THE COURSE OF A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER
WRN CONUS TROF CLOSER TO MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

So, the bottom line is that if this western trough is highly amplified and stationary, that leaves strong high pressure off the east coast which doesn't allow the progressive solution of the GFS (i.e. the second strong front next Sunday). Things will change this far out but it may be an interesting set-up next weekend with an approaching hurricane somewhere between Bermuda and the EC.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192m.gif