Akash and Gonu thread

[P.K.]

Just out.

Dated: 4th June, 2007


Subject: Super Cyclonic Storm “GONU’ over East
Central and adjoining westcentral and north
Arabian Sea



TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 4TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 4TH JUNE 2007. THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA SLIGHTLY MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 20.50N AND LONG 63.50E, ABOUT 600 KMS SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731).


CURRENT INTENSITY T6.5 RPT T6.5 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE “EYE” WITH SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 130 KTS GUSTING 160KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE COAST OF OMAN BY FORENOON OF 6TH JUNE 2007. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T6.5 RPT T6.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

[AZRainman]

It's rather mondo bizarro to see 130knt cyclone go up the Gulf of Oman, especially considering the current geopolitical picture. So an oil price moonshoot is in the making. Today oil closed up 3% at $66.02, where as Oman produces 743,000 bbl/day.

Lots of additional info at:
Cyclone Gonu Thread and Link Dump
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623

The effects of this storm are going to be the felt worldwide.

Bathymetry and map of region

Note: these region has little to no experience in preparing for a system of this magnitude and many are not issuing warnings including the local oil industry.

[Weatherfreak000]

Gonu looks like he'll be downclassed to a Cat 4 come the next advisory.


Been a nice run, but it seems like a possible ERC won't change much as Gonu will begin to suck in much of the dry air from the coast and definitely weaken.

All those -removed- it to get stronger will of course be disappointed. But on a serious note a Category 4 Cyclone...isn't that enough?

[mempho]

Gonu looks like he'll be downclassed to a Cat 4 come the next advisory.


Been a nice run, but it seems like a possible ERC won't change much as Gonu will begin to suck in much of the dry air from the coast and definitely weaken.

All those -removed- it to get stronger will of course be disappointed. But on a serious note a Category 4 Cyclone...isn't that enough?

The essence of your question begs for this to become a political thread.

[DrewFL]

Here is a link to the Oman Daily Observer that contains a lengthy article regarding Gonu. It sounds to me like they are extremely well prepared. As best anyone can be. Web Page Name
Here's where Brent Crude is right now: Crude Oil 66.08 -0.13

[windstorm99]

Here is a nice view of the modis satelitte taken a little while ago.

[MGC]

Quiet an impressive cyclone. Note the dust plume being ingested from Pakistan. Should start to weaken due to dry air. I bet the Iranians blame the cyclone on America......MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quiet an impressive cyclone. Note the dust plume being ingested from Pakistan. Should start to weaken due to dry air. I bet the Iranians blame the cyclone on America......MGC

I would bet money on it...I will say no more.

[JonathanBelles]

Oman and I? lol

anyway, the west side looks to be sucking up dry air and dust.

[AZRainman]

Here is a link to the Oman Daily Observer that contains a lengthy article regarding Gonu. It sounds to me like they are extremely well prepared. As best anyone can be. Web Page Name
Here's where Brent Crude is right now: Crude Oil 66.08 -0.13

The region isn't prepared, they're just now reverse pumping and emptying the tankers, so they can get out and their infrastructure was never designed to withstand the winds/surge of Gonu. They have little to no history cyclone history to draw upon, where the average citizen makes $5k/year, doesn't have net access or reads english and where the government keeps them intentionally uniformed and oppressed. Oman issuing propaganda directed at Western markets to keep oil prices from going into panic mode and evacing its princes is not preparing, it's fleeing and for the industry labor it's tough luck. Nola and Katrina where said to be prepared too and with that in mind Oman, a 3rd world Sultan ruled country and idea of them being prepared for a cyclone is a joke, so don't bank on it and buy crude futures now.

In the United Arab Emirates, a shipping agent said no official warning had been issued although the country’s eastern coastline opens onto the Indian Ocean.
“The note we all received today (Monday) just mentioned we should be expecting some wind and rain and we did not get any official warning,” said the Abu Dhabi-based agent.
A Dubai-based shipping agent also said no official warning had been sent to his company.
“If it was dangerous, we would have been informed,” he said.
Oil surged above $70 on news of the cyclone. source

FUTURES MOVERS: Crude Rallies On Rising Demand, Gulf Storm, Russia

Note: 10mbd moves thru the Persian Gulf, and nothing is moving with Gonu in the way. Those loses can't be made up, since there are no extra standby tankers for emergency supply disruptions and you can't double up tanker capacity the week afterwards to make up for it.

[Coredesat]

System appears to be starting an eyewall replacement cycle:



From a couple hours ago:

[Chacor]

Oman and I? lol

Fixed, likely the "&" was taking up too much title space as "&".

[Derek Ortt]

that does not look like a secondary eyewall at all

[DrewFL]

As this track keeps shifting right the UAE is less in the picture and Oman is looking a little better also. Unfortunately it is looking like a larger Iranian problem. Now if the weakening trend will just start.

[Coredesat]

that does not look like a secondary eyewall at all

So would that be dry air finally getting into the circulation?

[Chacor]

A quick check of http://www.weather.ir shows no sign of a cyclone warning.

[Nimbus]

Other than interrupting shipping for several days in the region is the track progged to go over any dense poulation areas or key oil transfer infrastructure? How many barrels of oil do the speculators think will be shut from the world market?

[HURAKAN]

04/2030 UTC 20.7N 62.9E T6.0/7.0 GONU -- Arabian Sea

Power isn't forever!!!

[Derek Ortt]

conditions just are not quite as favorable. Shear should increase as it moves to the north, along with the drier air

This may reach Iran as a cat 1 on our scale, maybe even a TS. If it hits Oman, it could be in the cat 2/3 range

[AZRainman]

Other than interrupting shipping for several days in the region is the track progged to go over any dense poulation areas or key oil transfer infrastructure? How many barrels of oil do the speculators think will be shut from the world market?

100million barrels is the bottom end consensus so far, but then we have no past event to base an accurate summation on either.