2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[NDG]

As expected by many.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297836811457363968

[SconnieCane]

Could we be seeing so much ridging that more Bahamas/S. Florida headfakes turn into western Gulf threats?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1297867933679484930

[Shell Mound]

Could we be seeing so much ridging that more Bahamas/S. Florida headfakes turn into western Gulf threats?

Based on the tracks we’ve been seeing, we could see major threats to Houston, Miami, and New York City in the same year. September remember?

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298022712535908353

[chaser1]

Another 2005 compared to 2020 Fun Fact....

The 5th HURRICANE of 2005 was Katrina (upgraded from T.S. to Hurricane on Aug 25). We all know what Katrina did. Even after Katrina, that year saw 10 more storms reaching hurricane intensity. Four of those 10 Hurricanes went on to reach major Hurricane intensity.

[BYG Jacob]

As expected by many.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297836811457363968

Narrator:
They did

[Hammy]

Looking pretty likely we won't have a tropical system develop during the final ten days of August (though Laura barely fell outside of it), which while not an indicator of the season, has only happened a handful of times in the last several decades--going back to 1995 it only occurred three times--1997 (which saw nothing the entire month), 2000, and 2018.

[Loveweather12]

Looking pretty likely we won't have a tropical system develop during the final ten days of August (though Laura barely fell outside of it), which while not an indicator of the season, has only happened a handful of times in the last several decades--going back to 1995 it only occurred three times--1997 (which saw nothing the entire month), 2000, and 2018.

That’s not what the models are showing.

[CyclonicFury]

Sometimes, in the tropics, when in doubt of the season, you just have to wait a few days.

We've already had 4 hurricanes, all that formed from tropical waves (which is twice as many as the entire 2013 season had, and well above normal). Laura looks likely to become the first major hurricane of the season. ACE is already above 30, and will rise further as Laura intensifies. The ECMWF has been consistent on another possible MDR origin storm next week.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking pretty likely we won't have a tropical system develop during the final ten days of August (though Laura barely fell outside of it), which while not an indicator of the season, has only happened a handful of times in the last several decades--going back to 1995 it only occurred three times--1997 (which saw nothing the entire month), 2000, and 2018.

You might be right but that wave getting ready to exit Africa could spin up in the last day or two.

[TheStormExpert]

Another HUGE SAL surge coming off Africa! Maybe this is why the EPS is less bullish on the wave getting ready to come off the coast.



Also mid-level dry air has increased.

[toad strangler]

Another HUGE SAL surge coming off Africa! Maybe this is why the EPS is less bullish on the wave getting ready to come off the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/mN34Lp7/4782-BF6-B-9-B62-41-C1-AE68-B4-A4-C624-E5-BD.jpg

Also mid-level dry air has increased.

https://i.ibb.co/FWfV2Jq/26871-D0-E-2737-43-CD-90-D1-0-E5-FDC7-BDA1-C.jpg

Could certainly send the coming near peak season AEW's far to the western side of the basin .... where they could find much friendlier environs.

[TheStormExpert]

Another HUGE SAL surge coming off Africa! Maybe this is why the EPS is less bullish on the wave getting ready to come off the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/mN34Lp7/4782-BF6-B-9-B62-41-C1-AE68-B4-A4-C624-E5-BD.jpg

Also mid-level dry air has increased.

https://i.ibb.co/FWfV2Jq/26871-D0-E-2737-43-CD-90-D1-0-E5-FDC7-BDA1-C.jpg

Could certainly send the coming near peak season AEW's far to the western side of the basin .... where they could find much friendlier environs.

Yes, but both the SAL and mid-level dry air just don’t want to relent. Maybe something’s wrong with the scale?

[toad strangler]

Another HUGE SAL surge coming off Africa! Maybe this is why the EPS is less bullish on the wave getting ready to come off the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/mN34Lp7/4782-BF6-B-9-B62-41-C1-AE68-B4-A4-C624-E5-BD.jpg

Also mid-level dry air has increased.

https://i.ibb.co/FWfV2Jq/26871-D0-E-2737-43-CD-90-D1-0-E5-FDC7-BDA1-C.jpg

Could certainly send the coming near peak season AEW's far to the western side of the basin .... where they could find much friendlier environs.

Yes, but both the SAL and mid-level dry air just don’t want to relent. Maybe something’s wrong with the scale?

How'd I know you were going there?
It's still August with almost a week to go. SAL doesn't just shut off like a light. We'll see.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Could certainly send the coming near peak season AEW's far to the western side of the basin .... where they could find much friendlier environs.

Yes, but both the SAL and mid-level dry air just don’t want to relent. Maybe something’s wrong with the scale?

How'd I know you were going there?
It's still August with almost a week to go. SAL doesn't just shut off like a light. We'll see.

people are acting like it's september 15th lol. just be patient, has this season not taught people that yet? likely going to be at 13/4/1 already with time still left in august.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes, but both the SAL and mid-level dry air just don’t want to relent. Maybe something’s wrong with the scale?

How'd I know you were going there?
It's still August with almost a week to go. SAL doesn't just shut off like a light. We'll see.

people are acting like it's september 15th lol. just be patient, has this season not taught people that yet? likely going to be at 13/4/1 already with time still left in august.

It’s August 26th and the peak day is 15 days away. Not saying this is a complete shutdown just saying that SAL outbreak looks intense for the time of year.

[AxaltaRacing24]

How'd I know you were going there?
It's still August with almost a week to go. SAL doesn't just shut off like a light. We'll see.

people are acting like it's september 15th lol. just be patient, has this season not taught people that yet? likely going to be at 13/4/1 already with time still left in august.

It’s August 26th and the peak day is 15 days away. Not saying this is a complete shutdown just saying that SAL outbreak looks intense for the time of year.

that's gonna make this year even more dangerous. 2005 had similar issues in the MDR, so storms just found the favorable conditions further west.

[tolakram]

He asked a valid question that no one answered. Is something wrong with the scale?

I've had similar questions about the scale used for instability in the MDR, which has been below average for over 10 years now.

[MarioProtVI]

Another HUGE SAL surge coming off Africa! Maybe this is why the EPS is less bullish on the wave getting ready to come off the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/mN34Lp7/4782-BF6-B-9-B62-41-C1-AE68-B4-A4-C624-E5-BD.jpg

Also mid-level dry air has increased.

https://i.ibb.co/FWfV2Jq/26871-D0-E-2737-43-CD-90-D1-0-E5-FDC7-BDA1-C.jpg

The wave seems to have a pouch of moist air surrounding it which looks to be protecting it from the dry air. I still think we will see some hurricanes and a major or two at some point in the MDR in September (preferably the first half of the month). WAM begins decreasing at this point so the waves will be smaller and likely not be struggling as much. Just gotta have patience. Plus, the GFS (which is known for its horrible genesis pattern this year) caught onto a strong storm in the long range as well.