2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[otowntiger]

Wow models looks much more bullish.

On a side note, peninsula Florida’s hurricane deflector shield activated on the GFS-P. One of these times it is going to fail us

https://i.postimg.cc/1Rbxq9Vt/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh204-300.gif

Highly unlikely track there with those wilds swings. There will be a big trof in place ready to bring anything north or northeastward. 06z GEFS now starts development near 130 hrs and is over FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/q7898FGB/B5-F9-E79-F-D660-4-A51-9-C5-C-DAAA4-CD0-EDE6.jpg

. Agree- better chance it will get swept out south of Florida than it getting shunted and turned NW, in my opinion.

[ronjon]

06z GFS is frightening. Its way off past 10 days but now starting to build model consensus with GFS para, GFS, CMC, EPS ensembles and even low resolution ECM has a large vortex in the western Caribbean in 10 days. Not looking good in trends so far for Florida given climatology and long wave pattern of eastern US troughing.

[aspen]

It seems that there might be two disturbances to monitor in the WCar for development next week. Some models, especially the 00z CMC, show one disturbance much closer to Central America on October 1st-2nd, and a second (the one that becomes a hurricane in the GFS run) that starts getting itself together in the central Caribbean around October 4th-5th. It’s entirely possible we could see both Gamma and Delta in the Caribbean in the first week of October.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 0z and 6z models mark a pretty notable trend toward convergence on a solution. Even the gefs, which has had tracks all over the place that change from run to run is now mirroring the 6z gfs op, the 0z cmc, and 0z gfs-p by starting to consolidate in the W/C Caribbean, moving nnw and then bending nne into the w coast of Florida.

[NDG]

I remember a lot of people laughing at the GFS when it was showing Cristobal forming in its 7-14 day range saying that it was usual GFS with its ghosts storms in the early Atlantic season in the western Caribbean/southern GOM. GFS had the last laugh.
GFS is trending more and more that it will have the last laugh at the same people
The threat for western Caribbean development will be there at least over the next 2 weeks until a strong cold front sweeps across the Caribbean later on in the season.

[Shell Mound]

It seems that there might be two disturbances to monitor in the WCar for development next week. Some models, especially the 00z CMC, show one disturbance much closer to Central America on October 1st-2nd, and a second (the one that becomes a hurricane in the GFS run) that starts getting itself together in the central Caribbean around October 4th-5th. It’s entirely possible we could see both Gamma and Delta in the Caribbean in the first week of October.

...a bit like Wilma and Alpha coexisting in the Caribbean on October 22, 2005.

[CourierPR]

The Saturday Summary with Met. Joe Bastardi on weatherbell.com should be interesting. It is free to view.

[SFLcane]

It seems that there might be two disturbances to monitor in the WCar for development next week. Some models, especially the 00z CMC, show one disturbance much closer to Central America on October 1st-2nd, and a second (the one that becomes a hurricane in the GFS run) that starts getting itself together in the central Caribbean around October 4th-5th. It’s entirely possible we could see both Gamma and Delta in the Caribbean in the first week of October.

That long wave pattern has me concerned.

[toad strangler]

The 12z CMC was worthy for sure. THis doesn't have the feel of a phantom anymore although I think the models are confused as to what pc of energy becomes A spark.

[toad strangler]

Here are the potential catalysts and the models seem confused between the two.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1309839300893253634

[aspen]

If the second disturbance becomes the big one as the 06z GFS shows, it'll spend five full days tracking through the 30-31C SSTs of the central and western Carribean. That's a lot of fuel and a lot of time for future Gamma or Delta to bomb out into a powerful major.


However, the 06z GFS-Para has an alternative scenario: the first disturbance becomes a strong storm, while the second remains weak. The GFS-Para doesn't shove the first disturbance deep into CA like the GFS and CMC, and it's able to intensify just south of the Yucutan Peninsula. The second disturbance looks like a clone of Alpha '05.



There's still a moderate spread in solutions, but I think there's decent evidence for two systems in the Caribbean, potentially like Wilma and Alpha like Shell mentioned.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1309866544994955265

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS-Para...

But wait...there's more!!! Buy one cyclone and we'll throw in another for free!!!

[SFLcane]

EC quite poor with pre-genesis this season. Think the probability we will be tracking a tropical system in the Caribbean are increasing. For FL the overall long wave pattern might not be kind this time.

[SFLcane]

Para with Wilma 2.0...

[Hurricaneman]

Para with Wilma 2.0...

Yes, 100mi further north though in Florida, it’s looking like with that long wave trough that we in central Florida May have to keep an eye out for this one

[cheezyWXguy]

Already a different evolution on the 12z gfs through hour 210. We’ll see how this ends up

[Hurricaneman]

Already a different evolution on the 12z gfs through hour 210. We’ll see how this ends up

Looks like BOC this run

[cheezyWXguy]

Already a different evolution on the 12z gfs through hour 210. We’ll see how this ends up

Looks like BOC this run

It’s weird. It can’t seem to figure out which side of the Yucatán it wants to form this on

[Spacecoast]

Already a different evolution on the 12z gfs through hour 210. We’ll see how this ends up

GFS Trend... Where did it go?