2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS saved loop MUCH weaker and into the Yucatan:

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol. Splits the difference and forms on the Yucatán

[toad strangler]

Already a different evolution on the 12z gfs through hour 210. We’ll see how this ends up

GFS Trend... Where did it go?
https://i.ibb.co/LQPrctG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh234-trend.gif

No such thing as a trend on 10 day maps. Just wild fluctuations due to how far it's out.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian




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[Spacecoast]

Already a different evolution on the 12z gfs through hour 210. We’ll see how this ends up

GFS Trend... Where did it go?
https://i.ibb.co/LQPrctG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh234-trend.gif

No such thing as a trend on 10 day maps. Just wild fluctuations due to how far it's out.

Of course you are correct. I just tagged it that way for clarification, as TT calls it 'forecast trend'.
Perhaps I will start tagging them 'GFS forecast fluctuations'.
CMC seems more consistent.

[toad strangler]

GFS Trend... Where did it go?
https://i.ibb.co/LQPrctG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh234-trend.gif

No such thing as a trend on 10 day maps. Just wild fluctuations due to how far it's out.

Of course you are correct. I just tagged it that way for clarification, as TT calls it 'forecast trend'.
Perhaps I will start tagging them 'GFS forecast fluctuations'.

I get it, it's just a word. But we all know what that meaning involves. And it's not about 240 hour maps

[toad strangler]

12z CMC with a strengthening cyclone in a precarious position near the middle of the Yucatan CHannel at end of run.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cmc has been a lot more consistent run to run than the gfs, and is more in line with the last few ensemble runs as well as most of 06z suite. Gfs seems to be having trouble figuring out what it wants to do with any of this

[gatorcane]

No bueno

[SFLcane]

Lol. Splits the difference and forms on the Yucatán

I’d go with GEFS ensembles for now.

[SFLcane]

:eek: No bueno

https://i.postimg.cc/cCmXq07G/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh186-240.gif

[StAuggy]

12z CMC with a strengthening cyclone in a precarious position near the middle of the Yucatan CHannel at end of run.

That’s almost the point of no return for high risk of a US landfalling storm in October. If a system makes it into that area it’s way more likely than not... a few instances of pronounced hard 90 turns to avoid FL... but not many

[Spacecoast]

:eek: No bueno

https://i.postimg.cc/cCmXq07G/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh186-240.gif

Last 6 hours of CMC run indicate NE turn
sorta like 121 years ago (to the day):

Key West Hurricane of 1909 (October 6 – October 13)

[cheezyWXguy]

If the gefs is to be believed, the potential could be there for back to back majors in the Caribbean. Second one favors Felix 07 as the analog through 234hr. But so much time for things get settled that is purely entertainment

[SFLcane]

If the gefs is to be believed, the potential could be there for back to back majors in the Caribbean. Second one favors Felix 07 as the analog through 234hr. But so much time for things get settled that is purely entertainment

Id side with gefs ensembles here. The euro has just been horrid this season unfortunately.

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1309896832743596033

[aspen]

12z CMC has a very well-defined wave entering the Caribbean in 5 days. If the precursor wave is this strong, we might have to watch out for development in the eastern half of the Caribbean, several days before it reaches the extra-scorching waters of the WCar and Yucutan Channel.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know if it got mentioned but the 00z ECM Ensembles are at 20% at 10 days of TC development in the Western Carib.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 12z Para is going with the BOGO scenario again.


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[toad strangler]

Looks like the 12z Para is going with the BOGO scenario again.


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Misses the peninsula to the W on 1 and the E on 2
Luck of the Irish

[aspen]

The models are split on what to do with the first wave. Either it’s slightly faster and further south, plowing into Central America (GFS and CMC), or it’s slightly slower and further north, and is able to develop (GFS-Para and ICON). Only the GFS-Para and CMC show the second wave developing as of now.