Potential in the GOM?

[Recurve]

I just started looking at this (all eyes here are eastward right now), and I have no idea about any development. But MAN, that's an impressive mass of convection. I wouldn't want to be under that in no boat.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at KBRO radar, rainfall moving from SE to NW, with no sign of a circulation. If there is a circulation beyond radar range, it would be inland or at best right on the coast.

Pretty to look at, no threat, in my humble and unprofessional opinion. (IMHAUP).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What about that area NAM develops near Florida's west coast?

[lrak]

you could substitue the A for And to Amateur Great acronym that will really qualify your statements.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What about that area NAM develops near Florida's west coast?

The NAM isn't, IIRC, a great model for tropical cyclogenesis. If it has any model support elsewhere, then it might be worth a second look.


IMHAUP.

[lrak]

Irak,

If you put the long and lat into the query string you can get the page to zoom into your area of interest http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23.8&lon=-96&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis otherwise you just end up with a post and no form so it goes to the default view.

Thank you xironman, I didn't think it would hold my selection and that's why I've been giving out coordinates and land observations.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think there will be 'homebrew' in the Gulf in the next week.

IMHAUP, the next chance of anything, and a remote one at that, about two weeks away, is the current wave coming off Africa following a path similar to Claudette in 2003.

[xironman]

The only reason the NAM has a very slight possibility to work is something that starts out as extratropical as the upper low retrogrades to the north and then becomes more tropical over time, from the Keys discussion http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1

AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN RETROGRADES IT.
THE NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT
IS MORE SIGNIFICANT IN LIFTING A LOWER LEVEL PERTURBATION NORTHWARD
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A HIGHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

At the same time there is a weak wave passing through that could add energy http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

If the disturbance can hang until Tuesday then the upper air is starting to get nicer http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_078m.gif. The water is sure warm enough
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008186at.jpg

[Ptarmigan]

That area of convection off the coast of South Texas has been persistant for some times over the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... large=true

I wonder if it could develop. Whatever happens to it, it will give someone a lot of rain.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB hadn't mentioned it in 2 days, but he mentioned an in close development when ex-93L arrives in his afternoon post. So he hasn't written it off.


I don't see any model support. And if something does form right on the coast, it is a rain threat, no a wind threat.

Just had a nice afternoon sea breeze storm, after a dry Spring, a wet early Summer, so I no longer have a rooting interest in a weak rain-laden system.

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

at the very limit of this radars southern reach I see...maybe a spin with possible banding occurring...maybe Increase the speed of the radar loops and that helps produce the illusion

Edit:

They just now (6:00pm) put up a trough along the Mexican coast. Hmmm...and a nice new blob is moving toward the coast of Mexico. I wonder what this thing would do without all this shear?

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMPA.html 1009mb Just north of Veracruz

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html 1009mb Veracruz

Tampico's pressure has started to drop also.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB hadn't mentioned it in 2 days, but he mentioned an in close development when ex-93L arrives in his afternoon post. So he hasn't written it off.


I don't see any model support. And if something does form right on the coast, it is a rain threat, no a wind threat.

Just had a nice afternoon sea breeze storm, after a dry Spring, a wet early Summer, so I no longer have a rooting interest in a weak rain-laden system.

Gulf flare up near Mexico coast looks to have fizzled.

[tailgater]

Not much chance of development, but pretty windy
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What about that area NAM develops near Florida's west coast?

The NAM isn't, IIRC, a great model for tropical cyclogenesis. If it has any model support elsewhere, then it might be worth a second look.


IMHAUP.

Thanks Ed!!!

[dixiebreeze]

NAM can be pretty good on short terms events.

[Sanibel]

Persisting tropical trough/wave axis off Mexico. I think the depth center is overland and that's why it's not forming.

[TexWx]

A little spin south of Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Buck]

I doubt we'll see anything soon... but on the last loop I saw of the gulf... it looked like the shear was calming a little bit.

[tailgater]

A little spin south of Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

I was thinking a little west of there @25N 86W

[TexWx]

ok south of Pensacola