Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our weekend OCM said nothing to be worried about, just some rain over the next few days. Their in-house model shows nothing developing in the gulf and the ull over the coastal bend forecast to move north towards Dallas.

[wxman57]

The 18z surface analysis chart has a 1011 mb surface low in the WGOM.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

That surface low doesn't exist. Whoever did the analysis just carelessly placed a low there. Surface obs do not indicate any low center, even with a 0.25mb analysis. All we have out there is a weak surface trof - SE winds to its east, NE winds to its west. No circulation.

I think a weak low will form just off the lower TX coast tomorrow, maybe just east of Corpus Christi. It won't be offshore, and it won't be very organized. There's a chance that the NHC could call it a TD before it moves inland Sunday, but that makes no difference. The main threat from this system will be heavy rain, not wind.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Pressure falling rather rapidly at the bouy 22NM east of GLS.....29.80".....0.07" fall in the past 3 hours. Winds ENE gusting to near 20 knots.

HGX radar shows some weak rotation southeast of Galveston.

[HURAKAN]

345
ABNT20 KNHC 112340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[TexWx]

Greg,
I thought I was seeing things, but looking at radar it appears to be spinning right there.

[jasons2k]

There's another spin near Bastrop too. It's still just a disorganized mess.

[attallaman]

Another wave of strong rain has just moved into my area but there's been no lightning or thunder tonight, just heavy, heavy rains. Why no thunder or lightning? I guess it'll be doing this all weekend.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that most of the heavy convection is now gathering in the E GOM. Highest convergence is in that area near FL:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

[wxman57]

Any rotation you might see on radar or satellite is not at the surface. Surface obs don't indicate any rotation. Lowest pressure is at the buoy SE of Corpus (1008.1mb), about 2MB lower than the Galveston buoy. It's just a weak trof out there tonight. With no organized convection to speak of, it'll take a while to develop any surface spin.

[jasons2k]

I'm watching that persistent near Bolivar stretching ESE. It is training but not really advancing too far westward yet. But I'm getting concerned it may begin to. Something to keep an eye on.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if a core rain event could happen tonight?

[srainhoutx]

I'm watching that persistent near Bolivar stretching ESE. It is training but not really advancing too far westward yet. But I'm getting concerned it may begin to. Something to keep an eye on.

Me too Jasons. Has perked my ears as well.
Edit to add we've had on and off light rain this evening. Mid Level moisture is increasing across the area.

[Ptarmigan]

That cluster over Bolivar should be watched. I know this how some core rain events have started. I remember with Allison, there were thunderstorms surrounding Houston and they merged over us, that led to the heavy rain event.

[tailgater]

Conditions at 42002 as of
(8:50 pm CDT on 09/11/2009)
0150 GMT on 09/12/2009: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 6.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 0.5 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
Average Period (APD): 3.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1009.6 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.7 mb ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.6 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 30.1 °C
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[wxman57]

I wonder if a core rain event could happen tonight?

There needs to be a "core", an area of convergence to focus the convection.

[bayoubebe]

Where is all the rain that is supposed to hit tomorrow at?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[ROCK]

bingo!!...nothing else to talk about close to home.

[jasons2k]

I was just outside for awhile and the low clouds are screaming to the WSW from the ENE. It certainly has the "look" you see with tropical systems. Kinda spooky looking. The strange thing is that the surface winds are almost calm. Reminds me of Humberto - you could see the clouds off to the south but the wind was calm.

[lrak]

I was just outside for awhile and the low clouds are screaming to the WSW from the ENE. It certainly has the "look" you see with tropical systems. Kinda spooky looking. The strange thing is that the surface winds are almost calm. Reminds me of Humberto - you could see the clouds off to the south but the wind was calm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42035

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

to make the circle you would have WSW winds

but you also have this to look at on radar just SE of CC TX.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[jasons2k]

Hmm, that band over Bolivar earlier sorta died away for a bit but it is coming back with a vengeance over Galveston & Texas City - moving WNW. I would keep an eye on this for sure b/c it seems to be moving now.

Also, has anyone noticed the little cells south of Jefferson County, one moving into Chambers? They are moving pretty fast. Shows just how fast those low-middle clouds are moving.