Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[toad strangler]

This is complete fantasy land stuff. Spend days splitting the shredder chain 50/50 to emerge even stronger than it went in?

NO LOL



Good afternoon, Luis et al... agreed it is certainly long range but let's not dismiss this solution out of hand. As I'm sure you remember George's followed a virtually identical track and did survive Hispaniola and Cuba and did landfall the Lower Keys as a cat 2. I had a ringside seat on Lower Sugarloaf Key. A similar track while unlikely remains a possibility... Greetings from Cayo Hueso...Rich

It's so long range that no continuity can be expected run to run. 18z GFS could be in Belize or NC. Right now I'm focusing on what modeling is showing up until the Greater Antilles as there seems to be decent agreement up until that point.

[RL3AO]

I'm more worried about this than almost any other wave over Africa in recent memory. This has a good chance of impacting land as a very strong tropical cyclone.

[floridasun78]

i wont look models untill five days or less from islands

[cycloneye]

0%-50%

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[AutoPenalti]

Looks as if the ridge doesn't give two **** about 99L slicing right through it as it just builds back in later in the week.

[SFLcane]

Interesting down to 50% maybe they saw GFS delaying development

[cycloneye]

Interesting down to 50% maybe they saw GFS delaying development

Yep,that is why.

[Alyono]

UKMET dropped it. Looks like new EC may do the same

Wonder if this has ALWAYS been a phantom. Even Canadian has hardly showed it

[SFLcane]

Through 96hrs in euro nada lol

[RL3AO]

It wouldn't be the first time the models love something until it gets close to leaving Africa and then drop it. Usually not with that much model agreement though.

[SFLcane]

Let's see how the run finishes but Iam with Alyono possibly phantom. 2016 Atalntic season= phantom

[tolakram]

... and it's gone.

[WeatherEmperor]

The models flat out suck this year. Sorry


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[tolakram]

Just about every area of vorticity has been strung out in this run, including the EPAC. Alonyo says run looks legit but my bs alarm is sounding.

[PTrackerLA]

What has happened with the Euro this year? Good grief.

[SFLcane]

Models horrific this season including European.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has a big ridge building across Eastern US and Western Atlantic at 192-216 hours...and this system heading towards SE Bahamas and gaining strength...

[blp]

At least we can take away from the Euro that if something does develop it will have quite a ridge keeping it West.

[gatorcane]

ut oh, good thing it is 10 days out....

[Bocadude85]

Wow 15 pages for something that hasn't even hit the water yet? Should be interesting to watch this system as it progresses. I see Euro has this much weaker on its 12Z run...if GFS continues to show development then I think this will be a go for development.