Special Feature in Discussion:
A tropical wave is along 95W north of 09N extending inland
across southeastern Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region,
moving westward at 10 kt. The southern part of the wave is
continues to enhance deep convection present north and south
of the monsoon trough as described above. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm of 11N95W, and within 30 nm of 11N89W.
The wave is forecast to move at about the same speed during the
next 24 to 48 hours, at which time low pressure is expected to
form along it near 10N98W. Model guidance suggests that upper-
level conditions are forecast to become favorable for this system
to develop during the upcoming weekend. This system has a medium
potential for development during the next couple of days. Fresh
easterly flow behind this system is expected to increase to
strong Fri through Sat, with some chance of these winds
increasing further as the low pressure deepens. This tightening
of the gradient will bring fresh northeast to east winds across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend.
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