Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[SoupBone]

And the GFS says "nahhhh". Does the GFS drop this because it goes over Hispaniola?

There is nothing for Hispaniola to disrupt as it passes. It's simply a tropical wave. There is no core. I wouldn't get too excited about this first modelcane of the season. It may develop, but there's certainly no guarantee of development. Could just bring some rain to the Gulf Coast.

I think you just smack-talked the Euro. Seriously though, appreciate the response. Just don't rain on my Winter thread.

[stormlover2013]

Models have been everywhere, CMC south texas, Euro corpus, euro last 2 runs La, GFS we don't know lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I just can't see the Euro's Florida TS verifying given the current upper level conditions.

? That's actually not a terrible upper level environment. Very low shear in the Gulf.

[SoupBone]

Models have been everywhere, CMC south texas, Euro corpus, euro last 2 runs La, GFS we don't know lol

Cue the shear map! It's not exactly in an ideal environment right now, or for the next day or so either.

[Ian2401]

https://i.imgur.com/HTpZZpd.png
I just can't see the Euro's Florida TS verifying given the current upper level conditions.

? That's actually not a terrible upper level environment. Very low shear in the Gulf.

Yes Gulf looks ok, but I was saying that I can't see a strong TS impacting FL like the Euro is saying because the shear is just too high leading up to it

[cycloneye]

And the GFS says "nahhhh". Does the GFS drop this because it goes over Hispaniola?

There is nothing for Hispaniola to disrupt as it passes. It's simply a tropical wave. There is no core. I wouldn't get too excited about this first modelcane of the season. It may develop, but there's certainly no guarantee of development. Could just bring some rain to the Gulf Coast.

We have to wait for more runs to look for consistency.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1034518190922125314

[mcheer23]

The whole gulf coast should just be weather aware. Nothing to worry about right now, may develop... may not.

[NDG]

There's actually higher support by GEFS members compared to the last two runs so don't be surprised if the GFS brings development back on its next run(s).

[Wakeknight]

Decent winds for West-Central and SW Florida (note those are at the 850MB level in graphic below). Wonder what this will do to the red-tide along the SW Coast of Florida?

Hopefully it takes the red tide with it. My kids haven't been able to spend much time outside for over a month now...

[USTropics]

The wave axis can be tracked using the 12z ECMWF run, and I've highlighted it below. The difference between the ECMWF and GFS is purely the ECMWF increasing vorticity on the northern flank of the tropical wave axis as it crosses over Hispaniola/DR. The GFS has a less discernible wave axis, and no vort signature in the Bahamas develops (compare 96 hours of the ECMWF to 96 hours of the GFS):

12z ECMWF animation:


12z GFS at 96 hours:

[mcheer23]

GEPS is quite interesting

[stormlover2013]

GEPS is quite interesting

why is that?

[wxman57]

Take a look at the TPW loop (below). There is little or no rotation associated with the wave, and TPW isn't extremely high - two strikes against development. In contrast, look a that the wave now emerging off the west coast of Africa. Significant rotation and higher TPW values.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

[Bocadude85]

Take a look at the TPW loop (below). There is little or no rotation associated with the wave, and TPW isn't extremely high - two strikes against development. In contrast, look a that the wave now emerging off the west coast of Africa. Significant rotation and higher TPW values.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

I do not want my Labor Day weekend ruined so hopefully the Euro is full of it.

[gatorcane]

GEPS is quite interesting

why is that?

Shows development (some ensembles stronger) in Bahamas (east of Euro) with tracks generally NW = conditions look favorable in the Bahamas:

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro ensemble (EPS) update: much more active for this than was the 0Z EPS. Something like 30% of the members have a TS+ vs only about 5% on the prior run! Most of these are in the GOM but a couple hit central or N FL east coast. Now this is starting to get my attention a bit more.

[NDG]

Take a look at the TPW loop (below). There is little or no rotation associated with the wave, and TPW isn't extremely high - two strikes against development. In contrast, look a that the wave now emerging off the west coast of Africa. Significant rotation and higher TPW values.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

But this TW is going to be moving into some of the warmest waters of the Atlantic Basin and a more moist environment, contrary to the TW just emerging off of Africa.

[toad strangler]

Take a look at the TPW loop (below). There is little or no rotation associated with the wave, and TPW isn't extremely high - two strikes against development. In contrast, look a that the wave now emerging off the west coast of Africa. Significant rotation and higher TPW values.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

I do not want my Labor Day weekend ruined so hopefully the Euro is full of it.

This would MAKE my Labor Day weekend Bring It

[Cpv17]

Judging by the latest 6-10 day precipitation forecast from the CPC, they seem to think this wave will move towards the central or south Texas coast vs Louisiana.