2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

EURO pretty robust on Haishen.

12Z




00Z

[euro6208]

Unlike EURO, GFS keeps it weak.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Wow no break.

Positive, Negative, and Neutral ENSO, the world's most active basin continues to spew out tropical cyclones affecting coastlines.

[euro6208]

Absolute insanity right now. 9 days apart.

[euro6208]

Could be quite an active September.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/MHrjrcP.jpg

Could be quite an active September.

Judging by that graphic, it looks like activity in the Atlantic (and the AEW train) will remain above-average until the positive MJO departs from Africa/WIO in mid September. Week 3 could be when the Atlantic “quiets down” (it’ll probably still be active) and the WPac has the opportunity to go berserk.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1299314314537562112

[euro6208]

Strongest run yet. Seems like Mother Nature is mad at Japan and the Koreas.

[euro6208]

GFS much tamer.

[euro6208]

GFS has a few more systems after Haishen.

[aspen]

Strongest run yet. Seems like Mother Nature is mad at Japan and the Koreas.

https://i.imgur.com/v7UglFa.png
https://i.imgur.com/y396umr.png

This is a really odd situation the models are agreeing on. The Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM show a disturbance moving south from Japan that develop between 4-6 days, bombs out into a major, and moves back north. ICON shows weak development by 120 hours out, and the GFS shows this developing after 160 hours.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM

[gatorcane]

CMC is aggressive:

[euro6208]

Now this is going to put down the ACE for the WPAC. Agencies and estimates are really lagging.

How is this only 35 knots for Maysak?

Where's recon?

[aspen]

Now this is going to put down the ACE for the WPAC. Agencies and estimates are really lagging.

How is this only 35 knots for Maysak?

Where's recon?

https://i.imgur.com/XFtUWeV.gif

This is currently no more than a moderate TS. While convection is absurdly deep and sign that it could bomb out eventually (similar to Halong and Amphan), it’s somewhat sheared and mainly on the western side of the CoC.

[euro6208]

Now this is going to put down the ACE for the WPAC. Agencies and estimates are really lagging.

How is this only 35 knots for Maysak?

Where's recon?

https://i.imgur.com/XFtUWeV.gif

This is currently no more than a moderate TS. While convection is absurdly deep and sign that it could bomb out eventually (similar to Halong and Amphan), it’s somewhat sheared and mainly on the western side of the CoC.

Good answer.

[Hayabusa]

NAVGEM

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/MHrjrcP.jpg

Could be quite an active September.

Judging by that graphic, it looks like activity in the Atlantic (and the AEW train) will remain above-average until the positive MJO departs from Africa/WIO in mid September. Week 3 could be when the Atlantic “quiets down” (it’ll probably still be active) and the WPac has the opportunity to go berserk.

This MJO thing is making me quite puzzled out, at this point in time the unfavorable phase of the MJO is over the WPAC. Yet we were still able to have Bavi, then now Maysak, plus another potential howler in the next 7 days.

Although judging from the development (or future development) of these systems, they did not form in the deep tropics (lower latitude and farther east in the WPAC). So I have a theory that the MJO promotes formation of TCs in the deep tropics, but even without it, typhoons in much higher latitudes and west of 130E longitude can still form.

[mrbagyo]