2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[cycloneye]

Track density with El Niño.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653396297108582400

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653390928638529543

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653390928638529543?s=20

Florida, Bahamas, and the Lesser Antilles:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653442938863755265

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653442938863755265?s=20

https://i.postimg.cc/kXgXMk1Q/fff.gif

[cycloneye]

The very warm East Atlantic/part of MDR will cool but stay above average.

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1653766697889812480

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1653776767289573381

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653852260219363328

[Category5Kaiju]

If this pans out, then expect the sinister Atlantic warmth to persist for quite some time...any trade wind-induced cooling for the next week or so will likely be compensated for

[Yellow Evan]

Depends on what happens after May 12 but the next 10 days will see net cooling from those trades.

[jconsor]

A thread on why the Sahel rainfall/Atlantic hurricane correlation has waxed and waned, and why the expected wet Sahel/strong W. African monsoon this year is likely an important factor for the hurricane season:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654111104828596225




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654115186565869568




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654123545671380993




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654126650890801155

[Category5Kaiju]

A thread on why the Sahel rainfall/Atlantic hurricane correlation has waxed and waned, and why the expected wet Sahel/strong W. African monsoon this year is likely an important factor for the hurricane season:

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654111104828596225

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654115186565869568

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654123545671380993

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1654126650890801155

Very good and interesting analysis by Dr. Cantor there! I actually didn't realize how much of a role the wet Sahel played in those Nino years. Everyone (including me haha) seems to focus on the absurdly warm sst anomalies in the Atlantic, but if you combine that with a wet Sahel, then that could lead to some very intriguing results.

[IsabelaWeather]

Do we know how the sahel is doing in terms of rain this year? Or is it still too far north to be getting rains yet?

[cycloneye]

Do we know how the sahel is doing in terms of rain this year? Or is it still too far north to be getting rains yet?

The last 90 days until May 2 shows a relativly wet Sahel.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/data/sahel/

[SFLcane]

Cansips for August and September..

[Yellow Evan]

The Sahel region being so wet in August probably means a repeat of the issues we've had in recent years with waves acting as gyres. That does point towards a busy September but that's also always been the expectation. Dry Caribbean is expected in an El Nino pattern.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1654188413988356097

[jconsor]

The rainy season in the Sahel is from Jun to early Oct, so it's a little early to get an idea of the rainfall trend simply from current observations. See this link to learn more about Sahel rainfall: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/asmet/w_africa/navmenu.php

However, the seasonal model guidance is in good agreement on a wet Sahel, which would be in accordance with what we've seen in most years since 2015.





One factor that is likely strongly contributing to the wetter trend in the Sahel since the mid-2010s is the near record warm eastern Mediterranean, which tends to induce an anomalous low pressure over north Africa in summer and early fall.

In turn, this typically leads to enhanced southwesterly flow from the eastern Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea toward the Sahel, transporting enhanced moisture there.

These two excellent recent papers go into depth on the E. Mediterranean - Sahel linkage and how the recent extremely warm E. Medit. may be encouraging wet Sahel years even when there is an El Nino (which typically reduces Sahel rainfall).

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 22-06263-8

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0367.1.xml

Some key figures from the papers:

Do we know how the sahel is doing in terms of rain this year? Or is it still too far north to be getting rains yet?

[zzzh]

EC monthlies forecast an active Atlantic.

[zzzh]

Euro also shows a huge AMO+ and a fairly wet Atlantic for peak hurricane season.