2026 ENSO Updates

[cycloneye]

NMME March run is up and has a strong El Niño by June.

[dexterlabio]

Based on what we're seeing here it looks to me that a strong El Niño appearing sometime this year is a sealed deal. However, the state of PDO and PMM is still quite unclear for this year. It looks like it would take some months to see the stubborn Northern Pacific Ocean warmth to cool down to get that horse shoe +PDO signature. There may be a chance that we see another -PDO/+ENSO in 2026 like what we saw in 2023, but the difference is that the atmosphere might be putting in some effort to flip it to positive.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The setup is looking more and more like a strong El Niño. Biggest difference vs 2023 may be a more responsive atmosphere and a more +PMM. PDO may be stubbornly negative because of the warm pool over Japan and the WPac.

I'm most interested to see how this bodes for the WPac. 2023 gave us an absolute low storm count, but 1997-esque ACE per storm.

Any analogs for a +PMM/-PDO?

[Kingarabian]

https://i.postimg.cc/cL3pJ1RD/image.png

Let's see how this evolves.

Trending weaker again. Makes sense since there's no big WPAC MJO.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.postimg.cc/cL3pJ1RD/image.png

Let's see how this evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDYphgfw/u-anom-30-5S-5N.gif

Trending weaker again. Makes sense since there's no big WPAC MJO.

I know we haven't had a true major WWB centered around the dateline/equatorial CPAC in over a month but it's hard not to believe the expansive subsurface anoms won' t eventually break through even with a period of modestly relaxed trades.

With that being said, despite the lack of MJO support in the WPAC in the short term we would normally see leading up to a WWB akin to the late January one which helped set in motion the strong downwelling KW that is leading us on the path to El Niño, it appears the EPS is very gung-ho on a prolonged one persisting throughout the duration of the month. Looks almost like the beginnings of a Niño standing wave to me?

[cycloneye]

This is the latest from the subsurface and the blues near the surface are almost gone.

[mixedDanilo.E]

I'm noticing something interesting, and I've been tracking this for the past several days and even weeks at this point, but the EPS seems to show the WWBs in the western pacific pretty decently, but it is struggling to propagate eastward and I especially don't see the strong signal for a basin wide event right now. This now lasts into the first week of April too pretty much since that is how far out the EPS currently goes. Is this because the model is not detecting any WWB's that may be occurring further east right now because we need to move up in time in order to see it, or is there something in the background state that is preventing WWB's right now? Or, is this supposed to happen with El Nino development and WWB's that are basin wide don't come til later?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Comparing seasonal guidance, the CanSIPS is alone in depicting both a (moderate) CPAC-based Niño and a definitive -PDO signature persisting (even with +PMM). This may be partially why it doesn't make the Atlantic season a complete wash. But as of right now nothing else really shows this being the case. That's obviously not to say it won't happen, but it appears to be an outlier for now. Need to watch and see if anything over the next month or two lends credence to this idea given Spring Predictability barrier and all.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.postimg.cc/cL3pJ1RD/image.png

Let's see how this evolves.

https://i.postimg.cc/sDYphgfw/u-anom-30-5S-5N.gif

Trending weaker again. Makes sense since there's no big WPAC MJO.

I know we haven't had a true major WWB centered around the dateline/equatorial CPAC in over a month but it's hard not to believe the expansive subsurface anoms won' t eventually break through even with a period of modestly relaxed trades.

With that being said, despite the lack of MJO support in the WPAC in the short term we would normally see leading up to a WWB akin to the late January one which helped set in motion the strong downwelling KW that is leading us on the path to El Niño, it appears the EPS is very gung-ho on a prolonged one persisting throughout the duration of the month. Looks almost like the beginnings of a Niño standing wave to me?
https://i.imgur.com/01vvlHh.png

My only issue with that graphic is that its for 850mb winds at 15N/15S. While the ENSO regions are confined to 5N/5S. This same EPS data has overdone WWBs in the past as well as the December event.

I think El Nino is inevitable but 2014 is a prime example of a significant warm pool in the spring that failed to trigger a JJA El Nino and instead, it came on in the fall as a weak event.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.postimg.cc/sDYphgfw/u-anom-30-5S-5N.gif

Trending weaker again. Makes sense since there's no big WPAC MJO.

I know we haven't had a true major WWB centered around the dateline/equatorial CPAC in over a month but it's hard not to believe the expansive subsurface anoms won' t eventually break through even with a period of modestly relaxed trades.

With that being said, despite the lack of MJO support in the WPAC in the short term we would normally see leading up to a WWB akin to the late January one which helped set in motion the strong downwelling KW that is leading us on the path to El Niño, it appears the EPS is very gung-ho on a prolonged one persisting throughout the duration of the month. Looks almost like the beginnings of a Niño standing wave to me?
https://i.imgur.com/01vvlHh.png

My only issue with that graphic is that its for 850mb winds at 15N/15S. While the ENSO regions are confined to 5N/5S. This same EPS data has overdone WWBs in the past as well as the December event.

I think El Nino is inevitable but 2014 is a prime example of a significant warm pool in the spring that failed to trigger a JJA El Nino and instead, it came on in the fall as a weak event.

Very true about 2014, I suppose a fail mode like that is still on the table (again, pre-SPB should always be considered). And of course, 2014-15 sputtering ultimately set us up for the Super Niño in 2015-16.

Subsurace comparison between then and now for the heck of it:

[mixedDanilo.E]

I know we haven't had a true major WWB centered around the dateline/equatorial CPAC in over a month but it's hard not to believe the expansive subsurface anoms won' t eventually break through even with a period of modestly relaxed trades.

With that being said, despite the lack of MJO support in the WPAC in the short term we would normally see leading up to a WWB akin to the late January one which helped set in motion the strong downwelling KW that is leading us on the path to El Niño, it appears the EPS is very gung-ho on a prolonged one persisting throughout the duration of the month. Looks almost like the beginnings of a Niño standing wave to me?
https://i.imgur.com/01vvlHh.png

My only issue with that graphic is that its for 850mb winds at 15N/15S. While the ENSO regions are confined to 5N/5S. This same EPS data has overdone WWBs in the past as well as the December event.

I think El Nino is inevitable but 2014 is a prime example of a significant warm pool in the spring that failed to trigger a JJA El Nino and instead, it came on in the fall as a weak event.

Very true about 2014, I suppose a fail mode like that is still on the table (again, pre-SPB should always be considered). And of course, 2014-15 sputtering ultimately set us up for the Super Niño in 2015-16.

Subsurace comparison between then and now for the heck of it:
https://i.imgur.com/QyT4ahL.png

Oh damn I did not realize the warm pool in 2014 was THAT massive...

[dexterlabio]

While 2014 was a weak El Niño, it felt very El Niño-like for both the WPAC and EPAC that year. Also if I remember correctly that year saw the transition from negative to positive PDO. It set the stage perfectly for the 2015 Super El Niño.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 3/9/26 has Niño 3.4 at -0.5C.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Interesting and informative thread from Dr Ben Noll.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2030983459708252291



 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2030983468562403418



 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2030983472144367855



 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2030983475629826120