TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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rnbaida

#281 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let me explain something here, all of us Mods have been very busy this weekend doing our jobs the best we can. Effective immediately, all non essential posts a mod deems non-essentail will contunue to be deleted and if I see one member being rude to an admin, mod or promet you are automatically inactive for 12 hours or more. You got a problem with this pm me I'd love to discuss it with you
well said...
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WindRunner
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#282 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:34 pm

KWT wrote:12z GFDL also shows the system re-curiving back west again towards the end of the run however windrunner.


Good point, it does.

And we have to wait for the plots from FSU/PSU to see the intensity, rnbaida.
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rnbaida

#283 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:35 pm

WindRunner wrote:
KWT wrote:12z GFDL also shows the system re-curiving back west again towards the end of the run however windrunner.


Good point, it does.

And we have to wait for the plots from FSU/PSU to see the intensity, rnbaida.
Ok. thank you.
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#284 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:35 pm

rnbaida wrote:CMC shows a huge system....

12z CMC at 144 Hours
Actually, it is only showing a storm with a pressure of about 996-1004mb. Not exactly a huge, powerful system.
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#285 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:35 pm

Where do you think it will go, Sanibel?



Right now it is being pulled by the plunging trough above it.

I haven't studied the future synoptic to see if it will be taken by a ridge.
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rnbaida

#286 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:36 pm

Image Latest models show GFDL take a west track toward the US.
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#287 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:37 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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#288 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:37 pm





NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.6N 41.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.09.2006 16.6N 41.9W WEAK

00UTC 05.09.2006 18.1N 43.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2006 18.3N 44.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2006 18.7N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2006 18.8N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2006 18.7N 48.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2006 18.8N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2006 18.6N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2006 18.8N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2006 18.7N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2006 19.6N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET
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#289 Postby Pebbles » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:38 pm

Eyewall wrote:unless you live right on the beach, there is no reason to evac for a TS.


I have to jump in here and say one thing. This isn't true exactly. I have a family member who just recieved substantial damage from the tropical storm that just hit her. And she's not right on the beach. She's lost the ceiling to her laundry room and leaks in other rooms of her trailer home. She could of possibly had more if the storm moved slower.

If you live in an older trailer home there is most certainly a reason to evac your home.
Last edited by Pebbles on Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#290 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:39 pm

KWT wrote:12z GFDL also shows the system re-curiving back west again towards the end of the run however windrunner.


I notice that most models recurve this back westward. There must some feature they are all seeing together. Usually with recurves they curve it out to sea for good and there is no west turn later. They are seeing something obviously.
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#291 Postby Frank2 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:39 pm

Well, at least everyone down here is restocked on their supplies, after cleaning out the stores one week ago...

Frank
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#292 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:40 pm

We have some individuals on here that just aren't right...I would love to know the age of some of these people and the education background.
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rnbaida

#293 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:40 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
KWT wrote:12z GFDL also shows the system re-curiving back west again towards the end of the run however windrunner.


I notice that most models recurve this back westward. There must some feature they are all seeing together. Usually with recurves they curve it out to sea for good and there is no west turn later. They are seeing something obviously.
that is right.... But the GFS takes it west then all of a sudden it turns north and then northeast.... so they might do that as well.
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#294 Postby perk » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Let me explain something here, all of us Mods have been very busy this weekend doing our jobs the best we can. Effective immediately, all non essential posts a mod deems non-essentail will contunue to be deleted and if I see one member being rude to an admin, mod or promet you are automatically inactive for 12 hours or more. You got a problem with this pm me I'd love to discuss it with you
Can you include being rude to other members too.
Last edited by perk on Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#295 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:42 pm

rnbaida wrote:Image Latest models show GFDL take a west track toward the US.
From what I have heard, a ridge may be trying to build back in over the SE and S. plains by late next week with less of a trough (correct me if I am wrong mets). Makes me wonder if this could pull a katrina or Rita and try to work into the GOM. Hopefully it won't and it just pulls off out to sea, but I don't think that kind of scenario can be ruled out just yet. The next week should be interesting in seeing how this evolves. I think another Ernesto may be in store (in terms of difficulty to track).

BTW, here is an image that includes a few more models: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#296 Postby stormtruth » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:43 pm

The above model plots are interesting. Is there a ridge that is going to prevent this from going out to sea? I don't think the Northeast once more remnants. Ernesto already ruined part of the labor day weekend for some people.
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#297 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:44 pm

Even so, the USA is PROBABLY safe, because even with the turn west, it will be at such a high altitutde lat/long wise that it will be hard for it NOT to recurve out to sea, unless there's something sitting on top of it blocking it from doing so.
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#298 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:45 pm

Anyone has seen the 12z NOGAPS and MM5? Post those here if the 12z run from those two are available.
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#299 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Anyone has seen the 12z NOGAPS and MM5? Post those here if the 12z run from those two are available.


I haven't seen them yet.
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rnbaida

#300 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:Anyone has seen the 12z NOGAPS and MM5? Post those here if the 12z run from those two are available.
I dont think they have com out yet... I have accuweather pro and i dont see any new runs on those 2 models...
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