GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[AnnularCane]

Is that the loop current? It looks like it broke off...or something. Didn't it used to be further east?

[txwatcher91]

While the SST's do not seem too impressive, the heat content is much "juicier" in the GOM than it was at the same time in 2005.
July 9, 2005


July 9, 2007

[miamicanes177]

The warming of SST's and increases heat content is very frightening. Most people seem to have been expecting the opposite. For example, a major contributor to the ukmet forecast was an expected "cooling trend in SST" which would "favour fewer tropical storms than seen in recent years".

Because of this recent development, I believe the ukmet forecast is a bust. If fact, I believe if given the opportunity, the ukmet would actually increase their numbers. I'm not sure if they provide monthly updates like the guys at CSU in August and September, but so far a cooling trend has not come to fruition. A warming trend has occured.

[windstorm99]

We'll according to the lastest reynolds anomaly map the atlantic has been up and down and many areas in the eastern atlantic remain just barely average like the MDR region and areas of the african coast remain cool.Adrian

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The heat content is very high in the GOM and Caribbean.
August and September could have big storms.

[drezee]

July 12 2007:




July 11 2005:




July 12 2004:

[ronjon]

Looks ominous for any storms that develop and traverse the GOM and western caribbean. These temperatures frighten me - Katrina exploded in what looks like a slightly cooler regime than what we have now.

[drezee]

I don't care about the number in the least. I am afraid of any one solitary system getting into this water in the next 60 days. Given the exact same upper/mid level conditions in 2005 and 2004 for any particular storm...based on latent heat available...the same storm in 2007 would likely be a stronger one. One must realize that we are about 2 weeks ahead of record 2005 pace for SSts in the NW Caribbean and GOM. What that does is this. From about July 30 to August 30 are the warmest over all water temperatures on average for that area (NW Caribbean peaks later than N GOM, but just an average). That is the period that we do not want storms in the GOM typically. In 2005, that time was from July 20 - Sept 25 or so. Many examples such as Camille, Katrina, Charley, Andrew, Bret, Indianola Hurricane of 1886, etc. Given the amount of TCHP in the GOM and NW Caribbean this year, I believe that period may be increased by 4 weeks. So that means...from now until early October anytime a Katrina type system could form.

[StormWarning1]

The reason the 2005 Eastern Gulf water temps are cooler than 2007 in the above maps is because Cindy and Dennis had just moved thru that area. The Western Gulf water temps are cooler for 2007 mainly because of all the rainfall along the Texas coast lately.
By August 1st I expect all of the Gulf to be above normal, then we will have to watch out for a 'slab leveler'.
My oil and natural gas future positions could use one.

[drezee]

Most complete analysis done by the government on deep-water buoys:

STATION: 42003
1 - MONTHLY AND ANNUAL FREQUENCY AND CUMULATIVE PERCENT FREQUENCY (10THS)
ELEMENT: AIR TEMPERATURE (DEGREES C) -- POR: (11/1976 - 12/2001) (167557 RECORDS, 91.3% HAVE ELEMENT)

Mean temperature
July: 29.4C
August: 29.7C
STD: 0.7C

July 2004: 29.65317139 +0.25C
July 2005: N/A
July 2006: 29.87878378 +0.48C
July 2007 (up to 7/12): 30.60719424 +1.2C
Almost 2 STDs!

This means that only about 10% of all readings were above the average of the whole day this year!

August 2004: 30.14508748
August 2005: 30.45061162 Record for any month of year on record!
August 2006: 30.39472973

Let's just say that it raises the normal 0.3C from July to August: 30.9 as an average?

STATION: 42001
1 - MONTHLY AND ANNUAL FREQUENCY AND CUMULATIVE PERCENT FREQUENCY (10THS)
ELEMENT: SEA TEMPERATURE (DEGREES C) -- POR: (11/1976 - 12/2001) (180522 RECORDS, 98.3% HAVE ELEMENT)

Mean temperature
July: 29.3C
August: 29.6C
STD: 0.7C

July 2004: 29.73907104 +0.43C
July 2005: 29.82849462 +0.52C
July 2006: 29.93938172 +0.63C
July 2007 (up to 7/12): 30.21978417 +0.92C
This means that only about 25% of all readings were above the average of the whole day this year!

August 2004: 29.99289617 +0.39C
August 2005: 30.58827493 +0.98C Record for any month of year on record!
August 2006: 29.97139001 +0.37C

Let's just say that it raises the normal 0.3C from July to August: 30.5 as an average?
2005 went up .76C...

[ronjon]

drezee, where are these two buoys located?

[Eyewall]

The reason the 2005 Eastern Gulf water temps are cooler than 2007 in the above maps is because Cindy and Dennis had just moved thru that area. The Western Gulf water temps are cooler for 2007 mainly because of all the rainfall along the Texas coast lately.
By August 1st I expect all of the Gulf to be above normal, then we will have to watch out for a 'slab leveler'.
My oil and natural gas future positions could use one.

exactly
i'd say the temps in the gulf are about the same as they were in 2005

[drezee]

42003

26.03 N 85.88 W (26°2'0" N 85°53'30" W)

42001

25.9 N 89.67 W (25°54'00" N 89°40'00" W)

[drezee]

Not sure what point you are trying to make. Yes, in 2005 Dennis came through and removed latent heat from the GOM. The fact is that it did happen so by definition the water temperature are higher. THey are not the same. The argument would have more validity if you stated that, if Dennis had not come thourgh the GOM would be just like 2005. The latent heat is still there just waiting for a storm...

[jinftl]

Wow...much warmer water throughout the tropical Central & Western Atlantic (south of 30' lat, west of 50' long) than this time last year...check out the current temps in the Eastern Gulf and around Florida....high 80's/low 90's. Implications for home grown storms this season?

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest Reynolds Anomalies update for this week.It shows near average MDR,with slightly above average anomalies in the Caribbean and GOM.The Western Atlantic is a tad below average.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Water Temperatures Are Very High:
91 degree Water Temp in Saint Petersburg:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sapf1

Clearwater Beach: 90.5 Degrees:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=cwbf1

Venice, Florida: 91 degrees
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

[wobblehead]

SST is a factor in storm developement however 80f to a depth of about 80 feet is necessary to sustain a hurricane. The depth of heat is just as important.

[cycloneye]

This is the latest weekly update of the Atlantic anomalies from Reynolds.The MDR is near average to slightly below average in spots.The warmest area this week is in the SE GOM.