Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[Coredesat]

oh.. whats that.. those are the first showers i have seen on the north side of the circulation yet!!! well in more than 24 hrs anyway ..

Those aren't on the north side of the circulation. They're on the south side of the circulation, toward the ITCZ.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Looking back at a sat loop, there seems like there was a very, very small amount of showers on the northern half of this area at the time. It has since increased considerably. (Considerably compared to what was there.) There has yet to be an update to the ATCF database at 2AM EDT. Perhaps they looked at Quikscat and saw that there was no surface low earlier. Or maybe things are just slow sometimes at night.

From the 2:05 AM EDT NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N45W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 45W-46W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

I think the center is at about 11N 46.5W in the 6:45 UTC image. Rainbow Java loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Lets see how long it can keep its convection this time.

One wonders how many deserts of the world you could fit under that dry air...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg
Java loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Big old rotating monster at the entrance to the East Carib.

Whether they are accurate or not, the shear maps show some increased shear ahead...

Shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

Based on the last SHIPS text output at 0Z, about 25 knots of shear between 48 and 72 hours.

7/5 0Z GFS run forecast shear (non updating link):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
Main: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Conversion: 1 m/s ~ 1.94 kts

Below average vertical instability in the tropical Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatins.gif
From TC genesis page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html

---

And not that it is entirely useful, but buoy 41041 is about 250 north of this area.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Chris, this storm is making very nice comeback indeed tonight. Yesterday I referred to its persistence and the fact that I believed it might make the comeback in a 36 hour period or so. Looks like with storms now developing very near the "center" it may be coming back a little earlier than even I had thought. This has to mean that shear is lessening. Also, I'm going to stay with what I said yesterday, believing that we will have a tropical storm (not just depression) upon arrival at the Carribean Sea. Like yesterday, I'm sticking with a 50-55mph tropical storm moving into the Carribean very near Barbados.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

When I thought the shear was supposed to remain low, I kind of thought it might survive without convection and might possibly make it past the dry air and shear, but things are looking rather hostile ahead:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

It needs to stay very, very low to have anything more than an outside chance, unless something changes.

If anything survives and passes into the west Carib, which is very hard to make out on most models, then it might have a chance. I have looked for any sign of a remnant surviving and have trouble finding anything that makes it to the west Carib, assuming that is where it might be headed.

Right now it is holding its own despite the dry air:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

I thought the convection would have left it a few days ago and we might be tracking a LLC on visible sat that made it to the Carib where there would be less shear, if it were to survive. But then it became clearer that shear would increase.

It just doesn't seem like this setup of dry air and shear will change by the time this area makes it to the Islands. But if it were to stay as low as Barbados like you think it might, then perhaps, but I have no clue.

There's a lot going against it right now. With more dry air around it now than yesterday, it seems more likely that the convection it developed in the overnight will diminish more quickly, but that is just a guess.

---

From the 5:30AM EDT NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:

"A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

[knotimpaired]

While all of you sat here and were speculating on this storm we were robbed not once, but 2 times. They came back for a 3rd time and we were ready.

They went so far as to take the dog food.

So take this storm/threat and talk all you want.

I am more concerned about the long board with nails they left at our front door.

A threat?

[harmclan]

What happened knot?

[Thunder44]

Let's wait and see if it sustains convection over the center during the day today. It currently seems to be slightly on the wane again. But if it does hold on, than I think TPC will upgrade to TD either at 11am or 5pm today.

[harmclan]

ITCZ still looks to be connected on the west side?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Visible satellite from NRL:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg

Still trying to fire more storms. This is probably going to continue to be a wait and see system for the next several days. It might not be destroyed, but it might not have the ability to hold its convection permanently or strengthen in the next few days either.

[knotimpaired]

Long story made short, we were actually robbed 3 times and the 4th they ran away.

1st time was when we took our puppy (4 months) down town since it was the 4th and there were few people on the streets. We wanted her to experience the plaza and sidewalks.

We think that was the first time. We did not walk out to our outside bar area at that time.

That was about 11:30 (we waited for the comments for the 11 am update)

At about 1 pm we heard a bottle break and I ran out (naked) and saw 3 kids, maybe 12-15 years old yelled to dear hubby to call the cops. At this time we noticed that only the alcohol that had not been opened were taken. Also the dog food we kept in the bottom of the bar was taken out. We obviously spooked them.

We thought there was no way they would come back again so we went to dinner and low and behold the bar was empty, wine glasses, plastic cups, coke, tonic water and the dog food. They left nothing. We have a alarm system so whoever did it knew not to come in.

At 10:30 pm hubby went to our friends and picked up a air gun. We did call the police after the 3rd time and they said injure them, hold them and call us.

That said and done, what do I do? Call in for reinforcements. My brother from Pa. We are now aware of nothing else but protecting our property. They have not come in the house, but 3 times in 1 day means, they are coming back.

[wxman57]

First visible imagery reveals that the LLC has been expanding and weakening overnight, as I indicated before I went to bed. Inflow has diminished, and the circulation is nearly gone now. Pretty good chance it'll become an open wave later today.

[TheShrimper]

You've got the right to shoot the punks with something more than a pellet gun. A shotgun would do fine. If you don't and you get robbed again, you have no one to blame but yourself. You know the old saying " ---- me once, shame on me, ---- me twice, shame on you".

[Aric Dunn]

First visible imagery reveals that the LLC has been expanding and weakening overnight, as I indicated before I went to bed. Inflow has diminished, and the circulation is nearly gone now. Pretty good chance it'll become an open wave later today.

not entirely sure about an open wave. but overall circulation extent has become less.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From the NHC 8:05 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N46W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 46W-47W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

Pressure up.

[wxman57]

From the NHC 8:05 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N46W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 46W-47W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

Pressure up.

Look at that center estimate - 46W? That's 120nm east of the center. Here's a recent visible. I can barely see any evidence left of the center. It's taking on the appearance of an open wave now. Somewhere near 11N/47.8W if there's anything left.

[Thunder44]

I do agree that looking at first visible imagery that the low-level center has "opened up" to at least a broader circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

From the NHC 8:05 AM EDT Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:

"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N46W...OR ABOUT 1000 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 46W-47W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

Pressure up.

Look at that center estimate - 46W? That's 120nm east of the center. Here's a recent visible. I can barely see any evidence left of the center. It's taking on the appearance of an open wave now. Somewhere near 11N/47.8W if there's anything left.

or the rgb images and loops..

becasue those iamges are so low resoulution.. at least use the navy site.. i have no problems this morning finding the center.. but anyway off to do some more differential equations!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I would have guessed that the center was at the western edge of the recent ball of convection around 10.5N 47.5W in the 10:45Z image:

Latest Visible:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg

But me being wrong again is no surprise, lol.

[Thunder44]

Latest QS pass at 9:14 UTC this morning seems to show that it has opened up to wave or surface trof:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[knotimpaired]

So I guess my question here is are we back on for a potential storm?

Everyone seems wishy-washy.