2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cheezyWXguy]

The models are split on what to do with the first wave. Either it’s slightly faster and further south, plowing into Central America (GFS and CMC), or it’s slightly slower and further north, and is able to develop (GFS-Para and ICON). Only the GFS-Para and CMC show the second wave developing as of now.

The gefs has a strong development signal for both waves as well

[StAuggy]

:eek: No bueno

https://i.postimg.cc/cCmXq07G/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh186-240.gif

Last 6 hours of CMC run indicate NE turn
sorta like 121 years ago (to the day):

Key West Hurricane of 1909 (October 6 – October 13)
https://i.ibb.co/0cpc77q/1909-Atlantic-hurricane-11-track.png

Looking at the climo tracks for October... I think maybe one instance of system that navigates the Yucatán channel and manages to end up south of Florida. The rest of the W. Carib tracks that approach the channel but miss FL with a hard right all look to go over some part of Cuba. That should be a strong indicator for a final destination... no Cuba, watch out. There are probably some systems that hit Cuba and still landfall in FL but I’d have to go back and look again.

[Nimbus]

October storms slightly favor a west coast Florida landfall according to climo. October 24th 1921 a cat 4 storm rolled up through the Yucatan channel and devastated the Tampa bay area. So we have an early October model ghost at 20% on at least one run. Hope everybody is enjoying their weather vacation.

[Blown Away]

October hurricanes passing between the Yucatán and W Cuba typically strike SFL/Keys...

[SFLcane]

GEFS at 120 hrs begin to show development.



At 200 hrs things begin to get active.

[Blown Away]

Definitely the models are consistently showing development within the NW Caribbean area and timing has moved consistently from long range to medium range.

[StAuggy]

https://i.imgur.com/VIzySmH.jpg
October hurricanes passing between the Yucatán and W Cuba typically strike SFL/Keys...

Just noticing the crazy path that the “pink” track just below the DR took. Had the Matthew/Hazel recurve but then got shoved SW and then I lose track of it... looks like it either heads sw over Cuba somewhere or traverses the entire gulf and hits Mexico

Also looking at that map there appears to be a couple instances where a storm approaching from the east still manages to get blocked into FL or the gulf instead of the late season recurve.

[SFLcane]

GFS 18z has a broad sheared low which has a hard time organizing near the Yucatán.

[cheezyWXguy]

Gefs has the weakest development signal I’ve seen for the last 2 days through hour 156. Either something is off or they’re starting to see more of some factor that inhibits development

[Spacecoast]

https://i.imgur.com/VIzySmH.jpg
October hurricanes passing between the Yucatán and W Cuba typically strike SFL/Keys...

Just noticing the crazy path that the “pink” track just below the DR took. Had the Matthew/Hazel recurve but then got shoved SW and then I lose track of it... looks like it either heads sw over Cuba somewhere or traverses the entire gulf and hits Mexico

Also looking at that map there appears to be a couple instances where a storm approaching from the east still manages to get blocked into FL or the gulf instead of the late season recurve.

That would be Inez 1966
Hurricane Inez was a powerful major hurricane that affected the Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, and Mexico in 1966. It was the first storm on record to affect all of those areas. It originated from a tropical wave over Africa, and became a tropical depression by September 21

[SFLcane]

Gefs has the weakest development signal I’ve seen for the last 2 days through hour 156. Either something is off or they’re starting to see more of some factor that inhibits development

Yep, have to see if this is a start of a trend.

[StPeteMike]

Gefs has the weakest development signal I’ve seen for the last 2 days through hour 156. Either something is off or they’re starting to see more of some factor that inhibits development

Wonder if they’re expecting interaction with the other possible system behind this one.

[Ubuntwo]

Gefs has the weakest development signal I’ve seen for the last 2 days through hour 156. Either something is off or they’re starting to see more of some factor that inhibits development

Wonder if they’re expecting interaction with the other possible system behind this one.

Nah, looks simpler than that: trending towards more shear.

[Spacecoast]

Gefs has the weakest development signal I’ve seen for the last 2 days through hour 156. Either something is off or they’re starting to see more of some factor that inhibits development

Definately seeing more (or less), of some factor that inhibits development. Perheps the same factor that cause ECMF to go from 60% chance of TD development to 20%.

I honestly don't know. I am comparing 18z GEFS to 12z runs, and everything looks the same, except for possibly less vorticity into Venezuela at hour 100.

edit: ok, more shear along north coast of S.A. that makes sense.

[TheStormExpert]

Don’t count on a hurricane coming out of the Western Caribbean next week. May have to wait until later in the month we see something more significant.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1309987091892367360

[Ubuntwo]

Gefs has the weakest development signal I’ve seen for the last 2 days through hour 156. Either something is off or they’re starting to see more of some factor that inhibits development

Definately seeing more (or less), of some factor that inhibits development. Perheps the same factor that cause ECMF to go from 60% chance of TD development to 20%.

I honestly don't know. I am comparing 18z GEFS to 12z runs, and everything looks the same, except for possibly less vorticity into Venezuela at hour 100.

Posted this earlier in the thread, the GEFS and the operational have been moving towards more shear. It's common for developing systems tugged north by a strong trough to face intense shear/get strung out as a result.

[Emmett_Brown]

I remember Michael was supposed to be a sheared POS

[Ubuntwo]

I remember Michael was supposed to be a sheared POS

Its motion was well aligned with the shear vector, and it managed to develop before the uptick in shear. Both of these factors helped to negate the impacts of those upper level winds. This is still far out, but it's important to consider that this set of factors is the exception rather than the rule.

[Spacecoast]

ECENS showing signs of life..

[SFLcane]

Ensembles will fluctuate until we get under 5 days.