ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The ESPI has trended upwards in the past few days.Ntxw, what do you make of this?

GWO/MJO is waking up the subtropical jet so makes sense. Tao/triton has shown some weakening of the cool anomalies through this week as well as expansion of the sub-surface warm pool. I will be interested to see if enso regions reflect it on Monday.

If anyone wants to follow GWO it seems to be a good indicator of the wind patterns (much like SOI) for what's next. High AAM 5/6/7/8 favor westerlies(warming) and low AAM 1/2/3/4 favor easterlies(cooling)

http://i47.tinypic.com/vwpipt.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

Definitly, some warming has occured in the past few days and I can say that Nino 3.4 is warmer than the CPC -0.6C. We will see on Mondays update how much it has warmed.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There is a chance it has warmed very, very slightly (-0.5C) but I wouldn't count on it. At least portions of region Nino 3.4 have cooled. Same for Nino 3.

[Ntxw]

There is a chance it has warmed very, very slightly (-0.5C) but I wouldn't count on it. At least portions of region Nino 3.4 have cooled. Same for Nino 3.

3.4 and 3 warmed some, Cycloneye's post of the buoy data confirms it. However, it is again due to the MJO and may only be temporary and what the signals show is that the players at the moment do not favor growth of La Nina or El Nino, firmly neutral.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/28/13 update

As the graphics of TAO have been showing last week Nino 3.4 warmed a bit up to -0.2C and that is up from the -0.6C that was on last week's update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Might see cooling return this week. Not a lot but some, GWO is heading back down from the +'s and the subsurface cold pool expanded some to match the western warm pool. SOI has been more negative than positive the past 7 days but still very much neutral territory.

Looking at long-term models the Indian Ocean will be important to see hints of where ENSO may go next. The next MJO wave will be born there and given the 20-40 day progression period that takes us into March. March and April are the transition periods for ENSO, if the MJO gets stuck in Indonesia there will be a prolonged period of cooling and thus La Nina chances will be better. If it continues to move into the Pacific, neutral or warmer values will be favored heading into the start of summer.

[Ntxw]

I posted this in the Texas thread and figured it should go here as well

Here's a little historical look on ENSO. Based on all the cases I have found there has never been a Nina/Nina/Neutral then another Nina. All of the neutrals were either another neutral or a Nino. This year's indices actually are not that favorable for good La Nina development except it is the cold PDO (not as cold as last year's PDO). But then again every double dip Nina was always followed by a Nino or third Nina which we did not get last fall so anything can happen!

[cycloneye]

I posted this in the Texas thread and figured it should go here as well

Here's a little historical look on ENSO. Based on all the cases I have found there has never been a Nina/Nina/Neutral then another Nina. All of the neutrals were either another neutral or a Nino. This year's indices actually are not that favorable for good La Nina development except it is the cold PDO (not as cold as last year's PDO). But then again every double dip Nina was always followed by a Nino or third Nina which we did not get last fall so anything can happen!

Good post. I think that by the April-May timeframe we will know a lot more about how the ENSO factor will be but you said it right with those three last words.

[NDG]

I posted this in the Texas thread and figured it should go here as well

Here's a little historical look on ENSO. Based on all the cases I have found there has never been a Nina/Nina/Neutral then another Nina. All of the neutrals were either another neutral or a Nino. This year's indices actually are not that favorable for good La Nina development except it is the cold PDO (not as cold as last year's PDO). But then again every double dip Nina was always followed by a Nino or third Nina which we did not get last fall so anything can happen!

Good post. I think that by the April-May timeframe we will know a lot more about how the ENSO factor will be but you said it right with those three last words.

I think that after last year we can all agree that anything can happen, forget about trying to forecast the ENSO in the long range, lol.

[Ntxw]

SOI decided to tank again with -47 maybe we'll get one of those weeks where it dives like a rock then shoot back up again, crazy

[cycloneye]

Interesting what is going on in the deep Pacific Ocean with the two extremes of Warm and Cold.The big question is which one will dominate or both will cancel out and Neutral continues to dominate for the next few months.

[cycloneye]

As expected,it cooled a bit in most of the equatorial Pacific but not as dramatic as the last cool down of two weeks ago. The CPC 2/4/13 update has Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C and that is more colder than the -0.2C that was on last week's update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Latest guidance still suggest decent pattern for cooling until mid to late month after mjo has reformed in the IO. Another warm spike may be headed into March and how much will hint if cooling will persist or abated once the wave passes. Keep an eye on mountain torque values to see if the wind patterns allow propagation.

[Hurricaneman]

To be honest I would not be suprised to see a cool neutral to a weak la nina for hurricane season unless something I'm not seeing happens like a kelvin wave or sustained -SOI for a week or more

[Ntxw]

Warm pool expanded and went up a bit. I could be wrong about this week showing cooling it may just hold steady or rise a little, the -SOI burst does support.

[Ntxw]

SOI did indeed go through another week of craziness.

On Feb 1st 30 day SOI was at -1.49 (it was positive just a few days before). 90 day SOI was at -1.87. By Feb 8th 30 day sits at -8.04 and 90 day at -4.39. This is the second time this season we went through a crazy plunge but reverted back up to neutral the first time. Where will it head to next?

[cycloneye]

Here is the early Febuary update consensus of the models that show how Neutral hangs on thru August, September, October but El Nino creeps up by the September, October, November period.

[Kingarabian]

El-Nino - Neutral - El-Nino? When was the last time that happened?

[USTropics]

This was posted about 2 days ago:
Original Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/07/us-weather-elnio-cpc-idUSBRE91610720130207
NOAA Report: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

(Reuters) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a key U.S. weather forecaster, on Thursday held to its view that the El Niño climate phenomenon should pose few weather problems in the Northern Hemisphere through spring.

In its monthly report, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a part of NOAA's National Weather Service, said prediction models overall point to a neutral forecast through spring, though it has less confidence in its outlook for summer.

While maintaining a neutral outlook, the report added that temperature variations in both the ocean and atmosphere increased during January.

Many forecasts showed below-average warmth in the eastern Pacific, but by late January, others pointed to warmer sea waters expanding toward the central Pacific Ocean.

The much-feared El Niño weather phenomenon heats up the tropical ocean in East Asia, sending warm air into the United States and South America, and often causing flooding and heavy rains.

It can also trigger drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, which produce some of the world's major food staples, such as sugar cane and grains.

At this point, however, meteorologists think the weather patterns are too weak to look for either El Niño or the La Niña phenomenon, which arises from cooler sea temperatures.

"Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO (El Niño)-neutral," CPC said.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

As long as the cold PDO is around we won't see a true El Nino. 2009 was our last true one, wonder how long it will be until we get another.

[gigabite]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... eq_anm.gif

The equatorial warm water pool is growing and moving east.