2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Fancy1001]

The latest GFS run has five different storms developing.

[TheStormExpert]

The latest GFS run has five different storms developing.

Not sure I can buy the storm forming in the Tropical Atlantic in mid-October.

[ElectricStorm]

The latest GFS run has five different storms developing.

Not sure I can buy the storm forming in the Tropical Atlantic in mid-October.

Eh it might. Slim chance for now but you never know. Nadine '18 did

[Hurricaneman]

May have to watch the wave right near the Lesser antilles as some models are trying to form another system from the CAG and that wave and likely will have better conditions than the current orange shaded area

[chaser1]

With most other models "pinging" development, i'd be curious whether the UK were developing anything in the Caribbean or elsewhere. The EURO remains conspicuously absent of significant tropical development

[LarryWx]

With most other models "pinging" development, i'd be curious whether the UK were developing anything in the Caribbean or elsewhere. The EURO remains conspicuously absent of significant tropical development

The 0Z UK had no Atlantic TC genesis.

[LarryWx]

With most other models "pinging" development, i'd be curious whether the UK were developing anything in the Caribbean or elsewhere. The EURO remains conspicuously absent of significant tropical development

The just released 12Z UK has one genesis at hour 144 SE of the Carolinas and nothing else.

[aspen]

The GFS-Para is very enthusiastic with future Gamma, but it also really wants to develop Delta in the MDR, and perhaps Paulette might need monitoring AGAIN as its remnants drift towards 27-28C waters.

[chaser1]

With most other models "pinging" development, i'd be curious whether the UK were developing anything in the Caribbean or elsewhere. The EURO remains conspicuously absent of significant tropical development

The 0Z UK had no Atlantic TC genesis.

Interesting how lukewarm both the Euro and the UK are on any near to mid-term development.

[supercane4867]

Someone please tell euro to not spinning up TCs in the Sahara desert.

[gatorcane]

The GFS-Para is very enthusiastic with future Gamma, but it also really wants to develop Delta in the MDR, and perhaps Paulette might need monitoring AGAIN as its remnants drift towards 27-28C waters.
https://i.imgur.com/5Dbm2Jb.png
https://i.imgur.com/nFjUiKU.png
https://i.imgur.com/S1Zd0iL.png

We would be through the entire Greek alphabet already with 250 ACE if we went by the GFS-P. It is as if the old CMC was revived from the dead

[aspen]

The GFS-Para is very enthusiastic with future Gamma, but it also really wants to develop Delta in the MDR, and perhaps Paulette might need monitoring AGAIN as its remnants drift towards 27-28C waters.
https://i.imgur.com/5Dbm2Jb.png
https://i.imgur.com/nFjUiKU.png
https://i.imgur.com/S1Zd0iL.png

We would be through the entire Greek alphabet already with 250 ACE if we went by the GFS-P. It is as if the old CMC was revived from the dead

At least there aren’t any monster phantoms in this. The MDR system has been showing up on the EPS ensembles for a while, Gamma taking a more northerly track isn’t impossible, and I wouldn’t sleep on Paulette’s remnants trying to come back from the dead again. Ex-Paulette is still around, right?

[WeatherEmperor]

The 0z GFS lol!!

This is a storm that develops after the storm discussed in the other thread. Develops aroumd 7 days and slowly drifts ENE towarda Cuba / South Florida





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[caneseddy]

00z Gfs has a Cat 4 landfall into South Florida on 10/11 identical to Wilma’s path without the Yucatán interaction then second landfall in NC on 10/13; this is the wave that follows the first wave which gets buried in the BOC

Fantasyland at this time of course

[Spacecoast]

NAVGEM joins GFS on 1st system, CMC and GFS have 2nd system @58%....

[abajan]

The latest GFS run has five different storms developing.

Not sure I can buy the storm forming in the Tropical Atlantic in mid-October.

Just 10 years ago, Tropical Storm Tomas formed in the tropical Atlantic, very late in October. And, of course, there was the infamous Great Hurricane of 1780 which devastated much of the Eastern Caribbean in mid-October. So, there's precedent. (There are probably other examples.)

[Ryxn]

Who's excited for freak Hurricane Aleph in the central Atlantic a la Zeta on December 29? obviously not serious and the chances of this are essentially zero.

If all the fantasy land runs from mid-September verified and the current ones for October verify, it wouldn't surprise me that the Greek Alphabet would be all used up (13 storms in October, 6 in November and 4 in December would do the trick). Obviously, again, near impossible.

Fun fact is that the word "alphabet" contains letters from the Greek and Hebrew alphabet, alpha and bet (the first letter of the Greek and second letter of the Hebrew alphabet). Funny enough, if we somehow were to use up all the Greek letters in the distant distant future and decide to use the first letter of the Hebrew alphabet, we would use Aleph which is actually a silent letter so really we should be reading the storm as "Tropical Storm _____" and not pronounce Aleph.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, the overnight runs of the GFS and GFS-Para were interesting to say the least.

00z GFS decides to destroy SW Florida with a Wilma sequel. Then 06z comes along and decides to pay the Panhandle a visit.

00z Para takes the scenic route through Florida with a SW landfall, crosses the state and then doubles back for a second landfall at Cape Canaveral.

FUN TIMES!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Pretty good signal from the 06z GEFS ensembles for some FL Peninsula impacts from the 2nd disturbance.

[SFLcane]

Pretty good signal from the 06z GEFS ensembles for some FL Peninsula impacts from the 2nd disturbance.

https://i.imgur.com/Z4N9KWB.gif

Hey SouthFLTropics, This a thread for this wave already. I just posted a loop of the GEFS ensembles.