Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[HouTXmetro]

Let's say it "Doesn't Happen". Is there a strong front poised to push through SE Texas anytime within the next 2 weeks?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Let's say it "Doesn't Happen". Is there a strong front poises to push through SE Texas anytime within the next 2 weeks?

In August? Probably not this far South, especially with a big ridge, but there does usually seem to be one out of season cold front in July or August almost every year.


Maybe not as tropical cyclones, but one of the two waves, the one near the Windwards and the one near Hispaniola may make it far enough Northward to at least cause showers.

12Z GFS predicts exactly 0.10 inches (2.54mm) for IAH the next two weeks.


Afternoon highs near 37º (upper 90sF) until next weekend, than more normal 32 or 33º temps.


BTW, the complete absence of pro-mets on this thread tells me that this is still a longshot in their opinion. Plenty of pro mets commenting on Storm2K today, but they are all on the 99L thread.

[gboudx]

Anything from jeff in his emails? I'm on one of his lists, but only the one where the weather will affect Central and NCTX.

[N2Storms]

This is w / regards to the wave that just passed over PR and is currently over Haiti / Dom Rep.


I believe this wave is the wave expected in the eastern Gulf early next week that the models are show coming together with the SE US Trough and develops a closed low in the North-Central Gulf.


FXUS64 KMOB 011029
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
529 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF FL STRETCHING WEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. TO THE NORTH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED OVER ARKANSAS PROGGED TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN
IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. WITH DEEP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND INCREASED
LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE NW EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING INLAND DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON HEATING. WENT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER ALABAMA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT TWO INTERESTING FEATURES DURING THIS TRANSITION. ONE IS
AN MID/UPPER EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
UNDER THE APEX OF THE WAVE. WILL KEEP SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON
SAT/SUN/MON AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST. INLAND AREAS
WILL HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE
EXPECT ISOLATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE
PICTURE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. /22

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Euro shows inverted 500 mb trough retrograding across the Gulf into Texas Tuesday. Surface map, not shown, does not appear to show a surface reflection of note or 850 mb winds in excess of 15 m/s (about 30 knots).

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z WRF shows a sub 1008 mb tropical depression skimming along the Louisiana coast Monday.


Model consensus is pretty underwhelming.


I'm hoping, but during drought conditions, continued drought is usually the most accurate forecast.




Edit to add: Not all gloom and doom, Euro's inverted trough, even w/o a surface low, seesm to suggest enhanced moisture, and by a little later in the day Tuesday SE Texas should be on the upward motion side of that inverted trough, probably meaning at least scattered showers.



Edit to add- It is 4 pm, my boss and his boss have left already, and it is Friday.

Sneaking out a tad early. Later...

[Stormcenter]

I will go out on a limb and say something does form in the GOM something early next week.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"]I will go out on a limb and say something does form in the GOM something early next week.[/quote]











000
FXUS62 KTAE 011934
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AMPLIFYING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN RETREATING ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD BACK IN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW CLOSING OFF ALONG THE
GULF COAST. THE PREVIOUS RUN CLOSED THE LOW NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND NOW
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORT WAVE WITH A DECENT
VORT IN THE SAME VICINITY BUT DOES NOT CLOSE OFF A LOW. THE GFS
WINDS AND CERTAINLY QPF FOR SATURDAY WILL BE DISCOUNTED. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING CLOSER TO OUR CWA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO OUR
ALABAMA AND MOST GEORGIA ZONES.

[srainhoutx]

HGX's thoughts concerning next week...snipet...

IN THE EXTENDED...RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE WEAK TUTT/MID
LEVEL INVERTED TROF COMING ACROSS THE GULF...AND ASSOCIATED SLUG
OF HIGHER MOISTURE...HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER CHANCE POPS TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE BEGINNING TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE EURO SOLUTION
IS BACK ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE TRACK (QPF-WISE)...ITS TIMING OF DRAGGING
THE WEAKNESS UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE TUE-WED IS STILL
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN RUNS. (CANADIAN/GFS SOLUTION(S)
ATTEMPT TO CLOSE OFF OPEN WAVE...BUT I`LL NOT BE THE ONE THAT GOES
ANY FURTHER WITH THAT KINDA OF TALK AS WE`LL STAY HAPPY ON THIS
FRIDAY!)

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...BUT UNCERTAIN
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TO THE TX COAST WILL
ONLY KEEP 20 POPS IN AS PLACEHOLDERS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
INTRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER SO HEAT WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF THIS FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.
31

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[stevetampa33614]

Basin has definately come alive in the 24 hours


That area is really getting some heavy convection flare ups as I type this.

[LaBreeze]

What would cause a low to fizzle as hit heads toward TX? Is the high pressure that strong or is it something else?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, it is the NAM...

[srainhoutx]

Well, it is the NAM...

Well the models are sniffing something for sure. Fairly good agreement so far. Let's see what happens.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not very pronounced at the surface, but GFS predicts decent low level vort max hugging Louisiana coast on Monday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Never quite closes off a surface low before 'landfall', per GFS, but .10 inch/6 hour rainfall totals just East of Houston Tuesday morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time. Not waiting up on international 0Z models.

But GFS solution, a mid level disturbance that pinches off from the main jet, retrogrades under the ridge, tries to work its way to the surface, but experiences terra interruptus before becoming a closed surface cyclone, but brings a quarter to half an inch of rain to my lawn Tuesday, unofficially, seems pretty darn reasonable.

[ROCK]

Been noticing the globals jumping on the bandwagon for some GOM action next week. Heat potential in the GOM will not be a problem.....not the will shear relax enough for it to stack and drill down to the surface.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[LaBreeze]

So Rock, are you saying that you believe that something will stack and drill down to the surface?

[ROCK]

So Rock, are you saying that you believe that something will stack and drill down to the surface?

0z GFS still showing something dropping down and moving west and into SWLA or part of Texas....very weak low. What I am saying is that if we have high shear nothing is going to stack. We might get another MLC (ala last week) that never reaches the surface. MJO still another week+ away.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian shows no development this run, weak 850 mb vorticity moving in. NoGaPs closes one sub 1012 mb isobar.



UK Met Global sort of like Canadian, shows an 850 mb vort max and a hint of a surface feature in the isobars, but no closed surface low. UK Met Office tropical cyclone guidance text product has nada.

Euro has a weak surface reflection of the 500 mb inverted trough, but no apparent surface cyclone (checking ECMWF.int, no 850 mb winds over 15 m/s, roughly 30 knots, but a little "L" on map South of Sabine), but a nice moisture surge poised to move into Southeast Texas on late Monday night into Tuesday.