Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[Blown Away]

HPC Discussion of the tropics in Atlantic

OUTLOOK: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION ON
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAINS. ON DAYS 04-05...THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN USA WILL RELOCATE TO THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN-TANDEM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN ESTABLISH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS TROUGH...A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD/ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 20N. THIS CHANGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE MJO...WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR TWO TO THREE
WEEKS. THIS WILL BRING US CLOSER TO THE TYPICAL/MORE SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN OVER THE DOMAIN...AND LIKELY MAKE IT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I read the E coast trough that normally protects the US EC will relocate N of the NE Caribbean islands, so if there is a system that misses that weakness there would be a blocking high that could make it more probable for a system to reach the Islands first and get pushed farther W towards the US?

[wxman57]

HPC Discussion of the tropics in Atlantic

OUTLOOK: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION ON
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAINS. ON DAYS 04-05...THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN USA WILL RELOCATE TO THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN-TANDEM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN ESTABLISH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS TROUGH...A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD/ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 20N. [b]THIS CHANGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE MJO...WHICH SHOULD LAST FOR TWO TO THREE
WEEKS. THIS WILL BRING US CLOSER TO THE TYPICAL/MORE SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN OVER THE DOMAIN...AND LIKELY MAKE IT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
[/b]

Hmmm, where have I seen this before...

I saw that statement and am wondering what they're talking about as far as an MJO pulse. If you go to the MJO page, the MJO is extremely weak and stuck in the west Pacific, and forecast to remain there over the next two weeks:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

That said, the 40-day Chi forecast of rising/sinking air is going for rising air over the Atlantic Basin by the 20th of August. It's not really an MJO pulse, though.

[cycloneye]

57,maybe they are using this graphic as their guide for the MJO forecast.

[Sanibel]

Tiny burst near the 30W center. Maybe it has enough to form further west?


You can see the dry hand of SAL on this wave in the Africa loop.

[Blown Away]

Tiny burst near the 30W center. Maybe it has enough to form further west? You can see the dry hand of SAL on this wave in the Africa loop.

Maybe something will come together near 10N and between 31-35W?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I can't believe this is not an invest. I've seen many waves that I wondered why they were invests.

[MGC]

I don't see any development of this feature any time soon. Convection is just too scattered currently.....MGC

[Blown Away]

I don't see any development of this feature any time soon. Convection is just too scattered currently.....MGC

I agree, but the whole cloud mass has a cyclonic rotation and over the past few hours the convection has been building in the area of where general circulation center may be, @10N/30W.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

The system has been analized at 30W in the 18 UTC surface analysis,more eastward than the 12 UTC position at 34W.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

lookin pretty lame as of last vis shot. Still some nice rotation at the mid and upper level Some tiny flare ups. Its got 48 hours to do something otherwise its straight in Guyana. still needs to be watched

[Gustywind]

Sat pic of the East Atlantic: the activity of the twaves has begun slightly to heat up a bit...while shear is showing very little signs of "zen attitude"(relax) between the 10-15°N and 30W -60°W:cheesy: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Derek Ortt]

Take a look at the projected oceanic heat content in Felicia's path beyond 60 hrs, Ed:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

After the next 12 hours, heat content begins dropping, down to zero after 72 hours. So it probably won't last to hit Hawaii.

I know this isnt the Felicia thread, but had Enrique weren't in the picture, I'd expect a similar evolution of Flossie which traversed over the same waters... an annular hurricane

[cycloneye]

540
ABNT20 KNHC 042333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

[caribepr]

and we like it like that!

[jasons2k]

It looked at its best two days ago...doesn't look like aything any time soon with this one.

[wxman57]

The system has been analyzed at 30W in the 18 UTC surface analysis,more eastward than the 12 UTC position at 34W.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Luis, the wave axis is actually even farther east, near 28W. It's clearly visible on satellite imagery. I'm not sure what the person making the analysis above was looking at when putting the axis at 30W. I've found that these charts have very poor continuity from day to day. The waves appear to jump all over the place, depending upon who's doing the drawing.

Regardless, there is the area of thunderstorms we've been monitoring and the wave axis well to the east in the wave "ridge" axis. They're two separate systems.

[RL3AO]

At 12z it was analyzed as a trough near the convection. The 8am TWD also mentioned that there could be a wave further east. At 18z they dropped the trough and introduced the wave which was always further east.

[Sanibel]

Just a hunch, but I think this one will re-burst further west.

[Fego]

Still waiting for some action with this wave. May be I won't see any action but what I can really see is a face in the clouds. When you begin to see things, is time to hit the bed...