Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see this remaining weak and going west, agree with wxman57 on this one. Strong TS or Minimal Hurricane between NO and Appalchicola.


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[RL3AO]

18z GFS near the tip of the Yucatan

[Kludge]

As is so often the case, models that keep it week send it into Mexico... while those that show it gaining some strength also show it gaining latitude and curving as far as Florida. They all seem to indicate that it will landfall by the 19th. But if it slows down, I would think big swings in the models could occur. Just my unprofessional thinking.

[CrazyC83]

In this case, all these troughs that dig well south - that seems like a northern Gulf Coast magnet as they would just reach out and grab anything, right?

[RL3AO]

In this case, all these troughs that dig well south - that seems like a northern Gulf Coast magnet as they would just reach out and grab anything, right?

Thats my worry. Even if numbers/ACE back off a bit because of current conditions, when the season does get rolling, its where the storms will go that has me nervous.

[petit_bois]

yeah no joke on the gas cans ..... BTW .... caught some sharks at petit bois last week

We did too!
kids LOVED it!

[RL3AO]

Found this interesting. 72 hour forecast for the Central GOM. Surface to 400mb shows little shear. Not sure if the opposite wind near 250mb would do much, or if that would just be outflow.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS 114hr... Western FL Panhandle near 50kts at 900mb eastern periphery.

[Kludge]

900mb eastern periphery.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS 114hr... Western FL Panhandle near 50kts at 900mb eastern periphery.

But it's very small. Had to look twice to see it.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not to concerned with where this might end up going right now, if it develops. Until it does each model run will be all over the place like we have seen throughout the day. Think we need to watch the development of the east coast trough and strength of the front that is supposed to drop down to the gulf coast to see if it will be strong enough to pick this up or not.

[bamajammer4eva]

18z GFS 114hr... Western FL Panhandle near 50kts at 900mb eastern periphery.

So at the surface they would probably be what about 30-35kts?

[ronjon]

In this case, all these troughs that dig well south - that seems like a northern Gulf Coast magnet as they would just reach out and grab anything, right?

Thats my worry. Even if numbers/ACE back off a bit because of current conditions, when the season does get rolling, its where the storms will go that has me nervous.

The real concern is not only the depth of the trough but at what longitude they set up. If this pattern this weekend repeats itself during the heart of the season, look out central and east-central gulf coast. If the axis of the trough sets up near 90W instead of 80W like in past seasons, then the US will be prime location for landfall as with this pattern the Bermuda high will be strong and prevent curvature for storms approaching from the SW Atlantic. And the western trough will be an open highway for storms to move into.

[TheStormExpert]

8pm TWO:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122318
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Dave]

I don't know if anyone picked this up today or not? I've been at the hospital with my dad since 1030 am this morning so I'm behind on todays activites.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 12 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[ROCK]

Stewart going out on a limb at 30%... thats still 70% it wont develop...

18Z NAVGEM is spinning up the wave under PR which by the looks of things that is doubtful because that 40knot shear pocket wont let anything stack.....as weak TS if that...takes into West FL panhandle

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

I don't know if anyone picked this up today or not? I've been at the hospital with my dad since 1030 am this morning so I'm behind on todays activites.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 12 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 13/1645Z
D. 12.0N 82.5W
E. 13/2030Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

yeah Dave we got it....sorry about your Dad...

[Dave]

Thanks Rock & everybody...if they release him in the morning I'll take the mission if not then someone else will need to pick it up. I'll know by noon. (sorry for the duplicate mission post).

[ROCK]

Just looked at the 12Z EURO operational run....it actually looks like it buries the low into the BOC only to push it into the EPAC and blow it up.....now wouldnt that be ironic....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[CrazyC83]

Interesting poll...I say on Thursday.